Detroit Lions vs. New England Patriots: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 10/9/2022

Time: 1 p.m. ET

Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA

Where to watch: FOX

DraftKings: Patriots -3

FanDuel: Patriots -3.5

BetMGM: Patriots -3

Caesars: Patriots -3

Lions: 1-3

Patriots: 1-3

Lions: lost 48-45 vs. Seahawks

Patriots: lost 27-24 (OT) at Packers

One of these teams you would expect to be 1-3. The other, likely not, but you wouldn’t be too shocked either.

The Detroit Lions and New England Patriots will meet up in a battle of 1-3 teams and normally you could look at a game like this and see New England running away with it. Why wouldn’t you? The Patriots, even without Mac Jones on Sunday in Green Bay, took the Packers to the final play before Mason Crosby’s field goal ended the game in overtime for a 27-24 victory.

Perhaps the biggest part to this whole thing was rookie quarterback Bailey Zappe had to come in for relief of injured veteran Brian Hoyer, and played incredible. Sure, the line reads 10 of 15 for 99 yards and a touchdown, but if not for some big throws he made at crucial times, the Patriots wouldn’t have had a chance to win that game.

"Of course, it was exciting at first," said Zappe. "It was a dream come true to play in an NFL game. It's obviously not the outcome we wanted at all."

It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Patriots turn to Zappe again in hopes of keeping this train rolling. Sunday was a combination of solid game management and crucial throws. He’ll need to do that again if the Patriots want a shot. The good news is the defense came up big for New England. Jack Jones returned an Aaron Rodgers interception 40 yards for a touchdown and tried to hold Rodgers to as minimal as possible. Of course, that’s hard to do and Green Bay eventually found a way to win.

As for the Lions, they might be the most “never quit” 1-3 team we’ve seen in a long time. All three of their losses have come by four points or less. The most recent being a 48-45 barnburner against the Seattle Seahawks in which defense was an option on this day. Jared Goff might have had his best game as an NFL quarterback by throwing for 378 yards and four touchdowns, and tight end T.J. Hockenson was a beast catching the football, hauling in eight receptions for 179 yards and two touchdowns.

But it wasn’t enough to contain the strong offensive dynamo that is Geno Smith (320 yards, 2 TDs), Rashaad Penny (151 yards, 2 TDs) and DK Metcalf (7 receptions, 149 yards).

"We're going to look at everything," coach Dan Campbell said. "I have a lot of faith in (defensive coordinator) Aaron Glenn. That's why I hired him, but I think we need to take a deep dive on our defense from the coaching all the way down."

The Patriots opened as high as 6.5-point favorites, but you have to think even with the quarterback situation that it has gone down with money in the Lions’ favor. The Lions have gone 19-13 against the spread in its last 32 as an underdog, but have just gone 7-24 straight up in that span. New England, though, is just 7-5 in its last 12 as a home favorite. Take that for how you will.

The Lions put up 45 points and didn’t have top receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown available. If he’s back Sunday, that’s a huge boost for Goff. I know the Patriots are low right now, but the Lions are lower. And if they can put these last four weeks together to get a big road win out of it, Dan Campbell may be on to something. Lions by 6

Lions are 9-7 ATS as a road underdog in the past three seasons.

Lions are 52-63 ATS in non-conference games since 1992.

Lions are 7-5 ATS off a home loss in their last 12.

Patriots are 11-10 ATS as a favorite in the last 21.

Patriots are 144-114 ATS at home since 1992.

Passing: Jared Goff -- 1,126 yards, 11 TD, 3 INT

Rushing: Jamaal Williams -- 276 yards, 6 TD

Receiving: Amon-Ra St. Brown -- 253 yards, 3 TD

Defense: Aidan Hutchinson -- 3 sacks

Passing: Mac Jones -- 786 yards, 2 TD, 5 INT

Rushing: Damien Harris -- 246 yards, 3 TD

Receiving: Nelson Agholor -- 225 yards, 1 TD

Defense: Matt Judon -- 4 sacks