Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/11/2023

Game Time: 10:00 pm ET, Thursday, May 11, 2023

Venue:  Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Nuggets +3.5, Suns -3.5; Over/Under:  226.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Nuggets +3.5, Suns -3.5; Over/Under:  226.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Nuggets +3.5, Suns -3.5; Over/Under:  226.5 points

Denver Nuggets:  53-29 (1st place, Northwest Division)

Phoenix Suns:  45-37 (2nd place, Pacific Division)

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Denver Nuggets:  7-3 last 10

Phoenix Suns:  6-4 last 10

The Nuggets finished the regular season with a 53-29 record overall and they were 19-22 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off of a win against the Phoenix Suns in their last game. Nikola Jokić led the team in points in that game with 29 while Bruce Brown Jr. was next on the team with 25 points. Nikola Jokić led the team in assists in that game with 12 while Nikola Jokić led the team in rebounds with 13. They were 49.4% from the field, 48.1% from 3-point range, and 75% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 115.8 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 112.5 PPG against them. The Nuggets have an ATS record of 50-41-1 this season and their O/U record is 44-47-1.

The Suns finished the regular season with a 45-37 record overall and they were 28-13 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off of a loss against the Denver Nuggets in their last game. Devin Booker led the team in points in that game with 28 while Kevin Durant was next on the team with 26 points. Kevin Durant led the team in assists in that game with 7 while Kevin Durant led the team in rebounds with 11. They were 43.2% from the field, 33.3% from 3-point range, and 70.8% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 113.6 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 111.6 PPG against them. The Suns have an ATS record of 46-44-2 this season and their O/U record is 48-41-3.

The current betting odds have the Suns listed as a 3.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 6 of a 7-game series between the 1st seeded Nuggets and the 4th seeded Suns for the 2nd round of the playoffs in the NBA Western Conference. The Nuggets are entering this game with a 3-2 series lead after winning another game on their home court in game 5 but so far this entire series has been really home dominated as the home team has won every game in this series and covered the spread in those games. The Nuggets may be the number 1 seed in the West but they weren't great in their road games this season and the Suns already swept them in the 2 games on their home court in this series. The Suns have their backs against the wall once again here but this time they are facing elimination so expect another big performance from Booker and Durant to carry them through another home game once again. Jokic also played great in both game 3 and game 4 but it still wasn't enough to win on the road in this series and the Suns are going to throw everything they have at the Nuggets to stay alive here. If the Nuggets are going to end this series it will have to be on their home court where they have dominated the Suns in this series. The best way to place a bet here is on the Suns to cover the spread in this game and even up the series 3-3.

Nuggets Suns Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Thursday, May 11, 2023 (10:00 pm ET start time) is Suns 127 Nuggets 119.

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Denver Nuggets: 16-23 ATS in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220. 3-6 ATS in the second round of the playoffs. 25-15 OVER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 17-8 OVER in all playoff games.

Phoenix Suns: 20-11 ATS in a home game where the total is 220 to 229.5. 26-18 ATS after playing a road game. 33-21 OVER when the total is 220 to 229.5. 27-17 OVER in the second round of the playoffs.

Denver Nuggets:  C. Gillespie (PG) Mid May - Leg.

Phoenix Suns:  C. Paul (PG) Ques Thurs - Groin.

“To be honest, I just like to win the game, so whatever it takes. If we play the way we did today we're going to have a chance.” - Nikola Jokic after their win against the Suns in their game on Tuesday, game 5 of this series.

“Yeah. I’ve been in here a couple of times now. I love it. Every game has is its own character. Every game is its own movie, its own different preparation and everything to go with it. We’re going watch over film, see how we can be better for Game 6.” - Devin Booker after their loss against the Nuggets in their game on Tuesday, game 5 of this series.

PG Jamal Murray

SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

SF Michael Porter Jr.

PF Aaron Gordon

C Nikola Jokic

PG Cameron Payne

SG Devin Booker

SF Josh Okogie

PF Kevin Durant

C Deandre Ayton

PPG: N. Jokic (24.5)

APG: N. Jokic (9.8)

Reb/G: N. Jokic (11.8)

PPG: K. Durant (29.1)

APG: C. Paul (8.9)

Reb/G: D. Ayton (10)

Coaches:

Denver Nuggets: Michael Malone (8th season)

Phoenix Suns: Monty Williams (4th season)