Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/07/2023

Game Time: 8:00 pm ET, Sunday, May 7, 2023

Venue:  Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ

Where to Watch:  TNT

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Nuggets +3, Suns -3; Over/Under:  227.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Nuggets +3, Suns -3; Over/Under:  227.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Nuggets +3.5, Suns -3.5; Over/Under:  227.5 points

Denver Nuggets:  53-29 (1st place, Northwest Division)

Phoenix Suns:  45-37 (2nd place, Pacific Division)

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Denver Nuggets:  7-3 last 10

Phoenix Suns:  5-5 last 10

The Nuggets finished the regular season with a 53-29 record overall and they were 19-22 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off of a loss against the Phoenix Suns in their last game. Jamal Murray led the team in points in that game with 32 while Nikola Jokić was next on the team with 30 points. Nikola Jokić led the team in assists in that game with 17 while Nikola Jokić led the team in rebounds with 17. They were 44.3% from the field, 33.3% from 3-point range, and 85.7% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 115.8 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 112.5 PPG against them. The Nuggets have an ATS record of 49-40-1 this season and their O/U record is 43-46-1.

The Suns finished the regular season with a 45-37 record overall and they were 28-13 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off of a win against the Denver Nuggets in their last game. Devin Booker led the team in points in that game with 47 while Kevin Durant was next on the team with 39 points. Devin Booker led the team in assists in that game with 9 while Kevin Durant, Jock Landale, and Deandre Ayton each led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 50.5% from the field, 32.1% from 3-point range, and 88.9% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 113.6 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 111.6 PPG against them. The Suns have an ATS record of 45-43-2 this season and their O/U record is 47-40-3.

The current betting odds have the Suns listed as a 3 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 4 of a 7-game series between the 1st seeded Nuggets and the 4th seeded Suns for the 2nd round of the playoffs in the NBA Western Conference. The Nuggets are entering this game with a 2-1 series lead after the Suns cut their lead in half with a win on their home court in the 1st game of this series in Phoenix. Booker and Durant both had a huge night for the Suns to claw this one back a game and now they will be pushing just as hard again here to tie up the series on their home court going back to Denver. The Nuggets didn't look bad in that game as both Jokic and Murray had huge nights for them but it wasn't enough against this determined Suns team and the Nuggets have struggled more in their road games this year too. The Suns will be throwing everything they have at the Nuggets once again as it will be very tough for them to win in Denver down 3-1 in the series with how good the Nuggets have been at home all year. The best way to place a bet here is on the Suns to cover the spread in this game and even up the series 2-2.

Nuggets Suns Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Sunday, May 7, 2023 (8:00 pm ET start time) is Suns 125 Nuggets 116.

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Denver Nuggets: 14-6 ATS against Pacific division opponents. 24-15 ATS after one or more consecutive overs. 16-7 OVER in all playoff games. 15-9 OVER when leading in a playoff series.

Phoenix Suns: 4-8 ATS as a # 4 seed in the playoffs. 11-19 ATS off a home win. 32-20 OVER when the total is 220 to 229.5. 26-16 OVER in the second round of the playoffs.

Denver Nuggets:  C. Gillespie (PG) Mid May - Leg.

Phoenix Suns:  C. Paul (PG) Ques Sun - Groin.

“I had some great looks at the end of the game and that would have kept us right there. I feel like they pulled away because of that. I have to be more locked in, more relaxed down the stretch.” - Jamal Murray after their loss against the Suns in their game on Friday, game 3 of this series.

“It's all I know, this is all I dreamed of as a kid. I've dedicated a lot of my life, moved away from my family when I was young, to pursue being in these moments.” - Devin Booker after their win against the Nuggets in their game on Friday, game 3 of this series.

PG Jamal Murray

SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

SF Michael Porter Jr.

PF Aaron Gordon

C Nikola Jokic

PG Cameron Payne

SG Devin Booker

SF Josh Okogie

PF Kevin Durant

C Deandre Ayton

PPG: N. Jokic (24.5)

APG: N. Jokic (9.8)

Reb/G: N. Jokic (11.8)

PPG: K. Durant (29.1)

APG: C. Paul (8.9)

Reb/G: D. Ayton (10)

Coaches:

Denver Nuggets: Michael Malone (8th season)

Phoenix Suns: Monty Williams (4th season)