Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/05/2023

Game Time: 10:00 pm ET, Friday, May 5, 2023

Venue:  Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Nuggets +4, Suns -4; Over/Under:  225 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Nuggets +4, Suns -4; Over/Under:  225 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Nuggets +4.5, Suns -4.5; Over/Under:  225.5 points

Denver Nuggets:  53-29 (1st place, Northwest Division)

Phoenix Suns:  45-37 (2nd place, Pacific Division)

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Denver Nuggets:  7-3 last 10

Phoenix Suns:  5-5 last 10

The Nuggets finished the regular season with a 53-29 record overall and they were 19-22 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 3 game winning streak with wins coming against the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Phoenix Suns in their last 2 games. In game 2, Nikola Jokić led the team in points in that game with 39 while Aaron Gordon was next on the team with 16 points. Jamal Murray led the team in assists in that game with 8 while Nikola Jokić led the team in rebounds with 16. They were 47.4% from the field, 25.9% from 3-point range, and 85.7% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 115.8 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 112.5 PPG against them. The Nuggets have an ATS record of 49-39-1 this season and their O/U record is 42-46-1.

The Suns finished the regular season with a 45-37 record overall and they were 28-13 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game losing streak with both losses coming against the Denver Nuggets in their last 2 games. In game 2, Devin Booker led the team in points in that game with 35 while Kevin Durant was next on the team with 24 points. Devin Booker and Chris Paul each led the team in assists in that game with 6 while Kevin Durant and Deandre Ayton each led the team in rebounds with 8. They were 40% from the field, 19.4% from 3-point range, and 100% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 113.6 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 111.6 PPG against them. The Suns have an ATS record of 44-43-2 this season and their O/U record is 46-40-3.

The current betting odds have the Suns listed as a 4 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 3 of a 7-game series between the 1st seeded Nuggets and the 4th seeded Suns for the 2nd round of the playoffs in the NBA Western Conference. The Nuggets are entering this game with a 2-0 series lead after winning both of their home games to start the series. The Nuggets looked really good in both of those games but they have also been a better home team all year as they only had a 19-22 road record during the regular season. Even in their last series, the only game they lost against the Minnesota Timberwolves was 1 of their games in Minnesota. The Suns also looked really good in their last series as they won 4 games in a row to win the series after losing game 1, and they are going to have to dig in deep now that they are down 2-0 in this series. The Suns were also a better home team this season though and weren't as good in road games so they will definitely play better here on their home court. The Suns are also going to be desperate to win this game since the series will pretty much be over if they go down 3-0 at home so they will come out strong here and take an early lead to ensure they cut this series lead in half at the end of the night. The best way to place a bet here is on the Suns to cover the spread in this game.

Nuggets Suns Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Friday, May 5, 2023 (10:00 pm ET start time) is Suns 127 Nuggets 116.

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Denver Nuggets: 14-5 ATS against Pacific division opponents. 16-9 ATS in the second round of the playoffs. 24-15 OVER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 15-7 OVER in all playoff games.

Phoenix Suns: 8-16 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent. 3-8 ATS as a # 4 seed in the playoffs. 31-20 OVER when the total is 220 to 229.5. 43-24 OVER after allowing 100 points or less.

Denver Nuggets:  C. Gillespie (PG) Mid May - Leg.

Phoenix Suns:  C. Paul (PG) Ques Fri - Groin.

“I love an aggressive Nikola Jokic. Nikola's an MVP for a reason. He can take over a game. He can beat you in a lot of ways. ... I love a guy who's getting to the basket, imposing his will upon the other team. And that fourth quarter, man, 14 points for that team, 28% from the field, 0-for-9 from 3?” - Michael Malone after his team’s win against the Suns in their game on Monday, game 2 of this series.

“You’ve got to believe that it’s going to come our way here soon. We’ve got to go home and take care of business. That’s where we are right now.” - Monty Williams after his team’s loss against the Nuggets in their game on Monday, game 2 of this series.

PG Jamal Murray

SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

SF Michael Porter Jr.

PF Aaron Gordon

C Nikola Jokic

PG Chris Paul

SG Devin Booker

SF Josh Okogie

PF Kevin Durant

C Deandre Ayton

PPG: N. Jokic (24.5)

APG: N. Jokic (9.8)

Reb/G: N. Jokic (11.8)

PPG: K. Durant (29.1)

APG: C. Paul (8.9)

Reb/G: D. Ayton (10)

Coaches:

Denver Nuggets: Michael Malone (8th season)

Phoenix Suns: Monty Williams (4th season)