by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, Oct 19, 2021
Time: 10 p.m. ET
Venue: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Suns -6; O/U 223.5; Suns -240, Nuggets +195
BetMGM: Suns -6.5; O/U 223.5; Suns -250, Nuggets +200
Caesars: Suns -6; O/U 223.5; Suns -250, Nuggets +205
2020-21 season record
Nuggets: 47-25, 3rd in Western Conference -- Swept in conference semis to Suns
Suns: 51-21, 2nd in Western Conference -- Lost in six games vs. Bucks in NBA Finals
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Nuggets - Suns preview and analysis
Back to the scene of the crime go the Denver Nuggets.
After yet another second-round exit that saw them fall short of expectations, the Nuggets re-tool yet again for another run with reigning MVP Nikola Jokic and another year with a fun, young, athletic core.
But the age-old adage is there’s never a shame in losing to the eventual champs, or in this case the Western Conference champions. But the Nuggets will start an important year under head coach Mike Malone on Wednesday when they take on the Phoenix Suns in the season opener for both teams.
The Nuggets seemed like a group that wouldn’t be stopped after they acquired Aaron Gordon at the trade deadline. Denver was spoiled in riches with a leap from Michael Porter Jr., and of course, the overall outstanding year from one of the best big men in the game.
Unfortunately for the Nuggets, their season came crashing to a halt for the third straight season. It went from losing in seven games in the second round, to getting walloped by the Los Angeles Lakers in a bubble Western Conference Final, to running into a buzzsaw that was the Suns in the Western Conference semifinals.
But that was certainly not the fault of Jokic, who became the first MVP in franchise history after averaging almost 27 points, 11 rebounds and nearly 8.5 assists while playing in all 72 games. The playoffs were nearly the same, or just as good, for Jokic, averaging almost 30 points to go with 12 rebounds, but the assists faltered to just five a game.
That’s the sign that Denver needed more from the group around him. That’s what they hope Porter will turn into after signing a five-year, $207 million max contract. The former 14th overall pick in 2018 had a gigantic leap of averaging 19 points to go with seven rebounds while shooting 54 percent from the field and 44.5 percent from 3.
The Nuggets are going to need another leap from Porter considering Jamal Murray will not be available until a potential playoff run as he recovers from a torn ACL.
But Denver has to go through an improved Western Conference that is currently run by the Suns after an improbable run to the NBA Finals. Phoenix came two wins shy of winning a title for a team that exceeded all expectations.
And those expectations happened because Chris Paul joined that team. The Suns already had the two young cornerstones in Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton, but no veteran presence to guide them to at least a playoff appearance. Not only did they make it to the NBA playoffs, but they steamrolled through the Los Angeles Lakers, Nuggets, and Los Angeles Clippers for their first Finals appearance in 30 years.
Unfortunately, they ran into this guy named Giannis Antetoukounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks rallied from down 2-0 to win the title.
Paul would’ve been Finals MVP had that dream come to reality after averaging 19.2 points and almost nine assists in the playoffs. Another year with Booker and Ayton, along with another year of growth for all-defensive team candidate Mikal Bridges, should see Phoenix make another deep run.
But there’s the distraction of Ayton looming over this franchise. Ayton, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 NBA Draft, was not signed to a max contract before the league deadline on Monday and is reportedly unhappy with how the negotiations went. There’s a legit chance the Suns could lose Ayton in free agency next season, and one has to wonder how long this saga will go on.
Prediction
As both teams begin the regular season, this will be a chance for the Nuggets to exact some revenge after the postseason disappointment. The Ayton saga does carry some merit. Phoenix will be fortunate to get a motivated Ayton to show he’s worth a max contract, but he could also just let it affect him all season. Jokic will come out swinging in this first game and get things rolling for Denver. Nuggets by 8
Betting trends
The Nuggets are 9-11 the past three seasons ATS as a road underdog of six points or less.
Denver is 12-15 straight up the last three seasons as a road underdog.
Phoenix is 22-9 ATS as a home favorite up to six points the past three years.
Projected starting lineups
Nuggets:
PG: Monte Morris
SG: Will Barton
SF: Michael Porter Jr.
PF: Aaron Gordon
C: Nikola Jokic
Suns:
PG: Chris Paul
SG: Devin Booker
SF: Mikal Bridges
PF: Jae Crowder
C: Deandre Ayton
Statistical leaders
Nuggets:
Points: Nikola Jokic -- 26.4
Rebounds: Nikola Jokic -- 10.8
Assists: Nikola Jokic -- 8.3
Blocks: Michael Porter Jr. -- 0.9
Steals: Nikola Jokic -- 1.3
Suns:
Points: Devin Booker -- 25.6
Rebounds: Deandre Ayton -- 10.5
Assists: Chris Paul -- 8.9
Blocks: Deandre Ayton -- 1.2
Steals: Chris Paul -- 1.4
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
