Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/07/2025

Game Time: 9:30 pm ET, Wednesday, May 7, 2025

Venue:  Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK 

Where to Watch:  TNT, MAX, truTV

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Nuggets +11, Thunder -11; Over/Under:  230 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Nuggets +11, Thunder -11; Over/Under:  231 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Nuggets +11.5, Thunder -11.5; Over/Under:  230.5 points

Denver Nuggets:  50-32 (2nd place, Northwest Division)

Oklahoma City Thunder:  68-14 (1st place, Northwest Division)

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Denver Nuggets:  7-3 last 10

Oklahoma City Thunder:  8-2 last 10

The Nuggets are entering the playoffs with a 50-32 record overall this season and they were 24-17 in their road games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game winning streak with wins coming against the Los Angeles Clippers and the Oklahoma City Thunder. Nikola Jokić led the team in points in that game with 42 while Aaron Gordon was next on the team with 22 points. Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray each led the team in assists in that game with 6 while Nikola Jokić led the team in rebounds with 22. They were 44.2% from the field, 31.3% from 3-point range, and 81.8% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 120.8 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 116.9 PPG against them. The Nuggets have an ATS record of 42-46-2 this season and their O/U record is 53-37.

The Thunder are entering the playoffs with a 68-14 record overall this season and they were 35-6 in their home games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Denver Nuggets. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team in points in that game with 33 while Alex Caruso was next on the team with 20 points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team in assists in that game with 8 while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team in rebounds with 10. They were 42% from the field, 34.9% from 3-point range, and 71.4% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 120.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 107.6 PPG against them. The Thunder have an ATS record of 55-29-4 this season and their O/U record is 47-39-2.

The current betting odds have the Thunder listed as an 11 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 2 of a 7 game series between the 1st seeded Thunder and the 4th seeded Nuggets from the Western Conference for the 2nd round of the NBA playoffs. The Nuggets are leading this series 1-0 after winning game 1 on the road. The Nuggets took a 1-0 series lead with a 121-119 win over the Thunder in the 1st game of this series and they won that game with a very late comeback. The Thunder were leading that game from the start as they had a double digit lead by halftime and maintained that double digit lead throughout most of the 2nd half, but they started to let the Nuggets creep back into the game with 5 minutes to go and it ended up being their downfall in game 1. The Thunder were in complete control for most of that game, but once they started to let that lead go late, the inexperienced kicked in and the Nuggets were able to take advantage of that. The Nuggets fought hard to steal that first game of the series with a comeback win, but they are still coming off a long 7 game series in the last round and they aren't going to have as much urgency in this one since they have already flipped the home advantage in their favor. This is still a bad situation for the Nuggets to start this series on the road with no real rest and the Thunder are going to come out much stronger in this one as they look to bounce back. The Thunder were the best team in the NBA this season for a reason and they were controlling that 1st game for most of the night. After the way they lost game 1, they are going to come out much stronger in this one and they will make sure to put away the Nuggets this time when they have the big lead instead of letting them hang around and creep back into the game late. The best way to place a bet here is on the Thunder to cover the spread in this game. 

Nuggets Thunder Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Wednesday, May 7, 2025 (9:30 pm ET start time) is Thunder 127 Nuggets 109.

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Denver Nuggets: 13-22 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. 2-7 ATS on the road off an upset win as an underdog. 7-13 ATS on the road versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season. 23-12 OVER off a win against a division rival. 

Oklahoma City Thunder: 154-106 ATS in all games. 38-23 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points. 44-21 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 230. 106-70 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% of their shots or more. 15-7 OVER after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games.

Denver Nuggets:  D. Holmes II (PF) Out For Season - Achilles.

Oklahoma City Thunder:  N. Topic (PG) Out For Season - ACL.

“Aaron’s going to be a hero again. But I’m also looking at 14 rebounds. I’m looking at 22 points. Looking at ball-handling responsibilities, leadership. He is a Denver Nugget, man. Like, he is the soul of our team. So, cool to see him have two moments that no one will forget.” - Dave Adelman after his team’s win against the OKC Thunder in game 1 of this series on Monday.

“It didn’t go our way tonight, but it’s worked out well for us in the past. We’ll continue to look at it and learn from it, but I don’t think that’s why we lost the game.” - Mark Daigneault after his team’s loss against the Nuggets in game 1 of this series on Monday.

PG Jamal Murray

SG Christian Braun

SF Michael Porter Jr.

PF Aaron Gordon

C Nikola Jokic

PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

SG Luguentz Dort

SF Jalen Williams

PF Chet Holmgren

C Isaiah Hartenstein

PPG: N. Jokić (29.6)

APG: N. Jokić (10.2)

Reb/G: N. Jokić (12.7)

PPG: S. Gilgeous-Alexander (32.7)

APG: S. Gilgeous-Alexander (6.4)

Reb/G: I. Hartenstein (10.7)

Coaches:

Denver Nuggets: David Adelman (Interim)

Oklahoma City Thunder: Mark Daigneault (5th season)