Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/05/2025

Game Time: 9:30 pm ET, Monday, May 5, 2025

Venue:  Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK 

Where to Watch:  TNT, MAX, truTV

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Nuggets +9, Thunder -9; Over/Under:  224.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Nuggets +9.5, Thunder -9.5; Over/Under:  225 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Nuggets +9.5, Thunder -9.5; Over/Under:  225.5 points

Denver Nuggets:  50-32 (2nd place, Northwest Division)

Oklahoma City Thunder:  68-14 (1st place, Northwest Division)

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Denver Nuggets:  7-3 last 10

Oklahoma City Thunder:  8-2 last 10

The Nuggets are entering the playoffs with a 50-32 record overall this season and they were 24-17 in their road games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Los Angeles Clippers. Aaron Gordon led the team in points in that game with 22 while Christian Braun was next on the team with 21 points. Nikola Jokić led the team in assists in that game with 8 while Nikola Jokić led the team in rebounds with 10. They were 52.2% from the field, 37.9% from 3-point range, and 71.4% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 120.8 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 116.9 PPG against them. The Nuggets have an ATS record of 41-46-2 this season and their O/U record is 52-37.

The Thunder are entering the playoffs with a 68-14 record overall this season and they were 35-6 in their home games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on an 8 game winning streak with wins coming against the Los Angeles Lakers, the Phoenix Suns, the Utah Jazz, the New Orleans Pelicans, and the Memphis Grizzlies 4 times in a row. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team in points in that game with 38 while Jalen Williams was next on the team with 23 points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team in assists in that game with 6 while Isaiah Hartenstein led the team in rebounds with 12. They were 43.6% from the field, 20% from 3-point range, and 80% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 120.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 107.6 PPG against them. The Thunder have an ATS record of 55-28-4 this season and their O/U record is 46-39-2.

The current betting odds have the Thunder listed as a 9 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 1 of a 7 game series between the 1st seeded Thunder and the 4th seeded Nuggets from the Western Conference for the 2nd round of the NBA playoffs. The Thunder are coming off a 4-0 series sweep over the Grizzlies in the last round while the Nuggets are coming off a 4-3 series win over the Clippers. The Nuggets didn't have the best start to that series and even gave up the home advantage early on, but they fought back hard to win that series in 7 games. They started to look a lot better as the series went on, but that was still a tough 7 game series for them with the way the Clippers play defense and they could be feeling some lingering effects from that series. They aren't going to have the rest that the Thunder have on their side either since the Nuggets won on Saturday night and have to turn around and start this series on Monday night. The Thunder are going to be very well rested though since they won their 1st round series in 4 games and have been off for over a week now. The Thunder didn't look great to end their series as they struggled a lot more in their 2 road games, but they still managed to get the sweep. They also looked a lot better in their 2 home games in that series as they won both games by double digits, and they had one of the best home records in the NBA this season with their 35-6 home record. The Thunder are going to come out strong to set the tone in this series as the number 1 seed in the West and they can take advantage of a Nuggets team that is going to be tired from that 7 game series. The best way to place a bet here is on the Thunder to cover the spread in this game. 

Nuggets Thunder Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Monday, May 5, 2025 (9:30 pm ET start time) is Thunder 121 Nuggets 101.

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Denver Nuggets: 12-22 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. 6-13 ATS on the road versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season. 3-8 ATS on the road after 3 or more consecutive overs. 23-15 OVER versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season.

Oklahoma City Thunder: 66-35 ATS as a home favorite. 50-26 ATS off a road win. 56-30 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 turnovers/game or less. 23-16 OVER as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points.

Denver Nuggets:  D. Holmes II (PF) Out For Season - Achilles.

Oklahoma City Thunder:  O. Dieng (C) Day To Day - Calf. N. Topic (PG) Out For Season - ACL.

“It feels good, but I also know we're flying to O-K-C tomorrow.” - Dave Adelman after his team’s win against the LA Clippers in game 7 of that series on Saturday.

"We haven't worked on anything relative to them yet. We want to focus on the fundamentals that are going to matter no matter who we play, because we can't predict who we're going to play." - Mark Daigneault on preparing for the 2nd round of the playoffs.

PG Jamal Murray

SG Christian Braun

SF Michael Porter Jr.

PF Aaron Gordon

C Nikola Jokic

PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

SG Luguentz Dort

SF Jalen Williams

PF Chet Holmgren

C Isaiah Hartenstein

PPG: N. Jokić (29.6)

APG: N. Jokić (10.2)

Reb/G: N. Jokić (12.7)

PPG: S. Gilgeous-Alexander (32.7)

APG: S. Gilgeous-Alexander (6.4)

Reb/G: I. Hartenstein (10.7)

Coaches:

Denver Nuggets: David Adelman (Interim)

Oklahoma City Thunder: Mark Daigneault (5th season)