Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/21/2023

Game Time: 9:30 pm ET, Friday, April 21, 2023

Venue:  Target Center, Minneapolis, MN

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Nuggets -2.5, Timberwolves +2.5; Over/Under:  223 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Nuggets -2.5, Timberwolves +2.5; Over/Under:  223 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Nuggets -1.5, Timberwolves +1.5; Over/Under:  223.5 points

Denver Nuggets:  53-29 (1st place, Northwest Division)

Minnesota Timberwolves:  42-40 (2nd place, Northwest Division)

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Denver Nuggets:  5-5 last 10

Minnesota Timberwolves:  4-6 last 10

The Nuggets finished the regular season with a 53-29 record overall and they were 19-22 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 3 game winning streak with wins coming against the Sacramento Kings and the Minnesota Timberwolves in their last 2 games. Jamal Murray led the team in points in that game with 40 while Nikola Jokić was next on the team with 27 points. Nikola Jokić led the team in assists in that game with 9 while Aaron Gordon led the team in rebounds with 10. They were 54.1% from the field, 45.5% from 3-point range, and 80% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 115.8 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 112.5 PPG against them. The Nuggets have an ATS record of 46-37-1 this season and their O/U record is 39-44-1.

The Timberwolves finished the regular season with a 42-40 record overall and they were 22-19 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game losing streak with both losses coming against the Denver Nuggets in their last 2 games. Anthony Edwards led the team in points in that game with 41 while Rudy Gobert was next on the team with 19 points. Mike Conley Jr. led the team in assists in that game with 7 while Karl-Anthony Towns led the team in rebounds with 12. They were 50.6% from the field, 45.2% from 3-point range, and 82.6% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 115.8 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 115.8 PPG against them. The Timberwolves have an ATS record of 42-44 this season and their O/U record is 40-46.

The current betting odds have the Timberwolves listed as a 2.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 3 of a 7-game series between the 1st seeded Nuggets and the 8th seeded Timberwolves for the 1st round of the playoffs in the NBA Western Conference. The Nuggets are entering this game with a 2-0 series lead but despite being the number 1 seed in the West this year, they haven't been a good road team all season. They have a losing 19-22 road record this year and the Timberwolves are going to be looking to bounce back with a big win now that they are back on their home court. The Timberwolves had a winning 22-19 home record this season and were playing really well there down the final stretch of the season. They have to take advantage of these two home games and use them to tie up the series or they will be going home if they go down 3-0 in the series here. The Timberwolves were terrible in game 1 but they played a lot better in game 2 and can build off that performance in this must win game. The Timberwolves will be throwing everything they have at the Nuggets in this game to avoid going into a 3-0 hole in the series and these are still division rivals so the T-wolves will put up a good fight on their home court here. The best way to place a bet here is on the Timberwolves to cover the spread in this game. 

Nuggets Timberwolves Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Friday, April 21, 2023 (9:30 pm ET start time) is Timberwolves 124 Nuggets 117.

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Denver Nuggets: 5-10 ATS as a road favorite of 6 points or less. 7-15 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins. 31-20 OVER vs. division opponents. 10-3 OVER in the first round of the playoffs.

Minnesota Timberwolves: 11-5 ATS as a home underdog. 28-18 ATS vs. division opponents. 27-18 OVER after a division game. 25-11 OVER when playing with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent.

Denver Nuggets:  C. Gillespie (PG) Early May - Leg.

Minnesota Timberwolves:  J. McDaniels (SF) Out indefinitely - Hand. N. Reid (C) Out indefinitely - Wrist.

“I knew they would anyway, our fans are great. But just to reward him and acknowledge the effort he just gave forth. He left a piece of him out there tonight.” - Michael Malone after his team’s win against the Timberwolves on Wednesday, game 2 of this series.

“We can’t wait until we go down 20 or 15 in the first half and try to figure out how to get back into the game. If we found something tonight, we’ve got to stick with it first quarter.” - Anthony Edwards after their loss against the Nuggets in their game on Wednesday, game 2 of this series. 

PG Jamal Murray

SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

SF Michael Porter Jr.

PF Aaron Gordon

C Nikola Jokic

PG Mike Conley

SG Anthony Edwards

SF Taurean Prince

PF Karl-Anthony Towns

C Rudy Gobert

PPG: N. Jokic (24.5)

APG: N. Jokic (9.8)

Reb/G: N. Jokic (11.8)

PPG: A. Edwards (24.6)

APG: M. Conley (6.7)

Reb/G: R. Gobert (11.6)

Coaches:

Denver Nuggets: Michael Malone (8th season)

Minnesota Timberwolves: Chris Finch (3rd season)