Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Prediction, Preview and Odds - 06/09/2023

Game Time: 8:30 pm ET, Friday, June 9, 2023

Venue:  Kaseya Center, Miami, FL

Where to Watch:  ABC

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Nuggets -3.5, Heat +3.5; Over/Under:  210.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Nuggets -3.5, Heat +3.5; Over/Under:  210.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Nuggets -3.5, Heat +3.5; Over/Under:  210.5 points

Denver Nuggets:  53-29 (1st place, Northwest Division)

Miami Heat:  44-38 (1st place, Southeast Division)

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Denver Nuggets:  8-2 last 10

Miami Heat:  5-5 last 10

The Nuggets finished the regular season with a 53-29 record overall and they were 19-22 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off of a win against the Miami Heat in their last game. Jamal Murray led the team in points in that game with 34 while Nikola Jokić was next on the team with 32 points. Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray each led the team in assists in that game with 10 while Nikola Jokić led the team in rebounds with 21. They were 51.3% from the field, 27.8% from 3-point range, and 81.5% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 115.8 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 112.5 PPG against them. The Nuggets have an ATS record of 55-44-1 this season and their O/U record is 47-52-1.

The Heat finished the regular season with a 44-38 record overall and they were 27-14 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off of a win against the Denver Nuggets in their last game. Jimmy Butler led the team in points in that game with 28 while Bam Adebayo was next on the team with 22 points. Max Strus and Kyle Lowry each led the team in assists in that game with 5 while Bam Adebayo led the team in rebounds with 17. They were 37% from the field, 31.4% from 3-point range, and 78.9% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 109.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 109.8 PPG against them. The Heat have an ATS record of 45-57-3 this season and their O/U record is 53-52.

The current betting odds have the Heat listed as a 3.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 4 of a 7-game series between the 1st seeded Western Conference Champion Nuggets and the 8th seeded Eastern Conference Champion Heat for the NBA Finals. The Nuggets are entering this game with a 2-1 series lead after stealing back a road game in game 3 of this series. They came away with a big win in that game by double digits but the Heat have been a really good home team in these playoffs and they are going to be looking to bounce back here and even up this series going back to Denver. The Heat don't want to be down 3-1 on the brink of elimination and have to go back into the altitude of Denver to try and win a game which will be really tough for them. They are going to throw everything they have at the Nuggets in this game to ensure they even up the series here and give themselves a chance to take the lead back in game 5. Butler didn't do much for the Heat in game 3 either so this is going to be a very different story in game 4 as Butler will be looking to put the team on his back once again and carry them to another home win in these playoffs. The best way to place a bet here is on the Heat to cover the spread in this game.

Nuggets Heat Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Friday, June 9, 2023 (8:30 pm ET start time) is Heat 99 Nuggets 92.

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Denver Nuggets: 12-22 ATS off a road win by 10 points or more. 20-29 ATS after allowing 100 points or less. 8-1 UNDER after 3 consecutive non-conference games. 15-8 UNDER off a road win. 

Miami Heat: 13-7 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more. 15-8 ATS in all playoff games. 8-1 UNDER after 3 consecutive non-conference games. 24-14 UNDER after scoring 105 points or less.

Denver Nuggets:  None.

Miami Heat:  V. Oladipo (SG) out for season - Knee. T. Herro (SG) Mid June - Hand.

“First two games, they won the fourth quarter. Tonight, we win the fourth quarter, we win the game.” - Michael Malone after his team’s win against the Heat in their game on Wednesday.

“You have to expect there to be elite talent in the finals. And both those guys are elite-level talent.” - Erik Spoelstra on Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray after his team’s loss against the Nuggets in their game on Wednesday.

PG Jamal Murray

SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

SF Michael Porter Jr.

PF Aaron Gordon

C Nikola Jokic

PG Gabe Vincent

SG Max Strus

SF Jimmy Butler

PF Kevin Love

C Bam Adebayo

PPG: N. Jokic (24.5)

APG: N. Jokic (9.8)

Reb/G: N. Jokic (11.8)

PPG: J. Butler (22.9)

APG: J. Butler (5.3)

Reb/G: B. Adebayo (9.2)

Coaches:

Denver Nuggets: Michael Malone (8th season)

Miami Heat: Erik Spoelstra (15th season)