by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, Dec 28, 2021
Time: 10 p.m. ET
Venue: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
Where to watch: NBC Sports Bay Area, Altitude
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Warriors -6
BetMGM: Warriors -6.5
Caesars: NL
Season record
Nuggets: 16-16 (5th place, Western Conference)
Warriors: 27-6 (1st place, Western Conference)
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Nuggets - Warriors preview and analysis
Recent form
Nuggets: won 103-100 at Clippers on Sunday
Warriors: won 116-107 at Suns on Saturday
The next 3-pointer Steph Curry makes will be his 3,000th.
A reminder that he is 33 years old and has shown no signs of slowing down.
The Golden State Warriors return home looking for their fourth straight win when they host the Denver Nuggets and reigning MVP Nikola Jokic on Tuesday.
It was a fruitful Christmas for the two-time MVP and his teammates, winning 116-107 against the Phoenix Suns in a battle of the top-two teams in the Western Conference. Curry, despite shooting 10 of 27, finished with a game-high 33 points in the win.
Otto Porter scored seven of his 19 points during a fourth-quarter stretch, giving the Warriors their second win over the reigning Western Conference champions this season.
"I drew up every play, I completely organized every aspect of it," Warriors coach Steve Kerr said sarcastically. "Otto was great. He's just added so much to our team with his shooting from that position and his rebounding and defense."
The Warriors won that game without three of its top scorers due to health and safety protocols; Andrew Wiggins, Damion Lee and Jordan Poole. But yet again, it was Curry continuing his MVP-caliber season to will his group to a win that ended Phoenix’s 15-game home winning streak.
COVID was not kind to the Warriors in the days that followed. Draymond Green entered protocol and will not play Tuesday, which could mean another increased role for the likes of Porter.
As the Warriors continue to navigate through the rocky waters, it’s just another day crossed off before Klay Thompson comes back. Curry’s backcourt mate is eyeing an early-January return, and things only seem right when Thompson is back in the fold. For a 27-6 team, what could be a better early-trade deadline acquisition?
But the shorthanded Warriors can’t look that far ahead with an up-and-down Nuggets team coming to town. One person who is more up than down is Jokic. He recorded his second straight 20-point, 20-rebound game Sunday in a 3-point win at the Los Angeles Clippers. The big man also had eight assists, becoming the first player since Charles Barkley in 1988 to record consecutive games of at least 25 points, 20 rebounds and five assists.
In short, Kevon Looney is going to have his hands full trying to stop that.
“We built a 17-point lead and then all of a sudden everything changed," Nuggets coach Mike Malone said. “The Clippers became very aggressive, they got out and ran and had us on our heels. To weather that storm and stay together was great to see.”
The Nuggets are 1-3 against the spread in their last four games and have not looked as comfortable despite Jokic’s dominance. That 17-point lead against the Paul George-less Clippers should’ve been sustained, but the backdoor cover at +4 looked good for L.A. bettors.
Golden State, meanwhile, is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six. The Warriors were 6-point dogs at Phoenix.
Prediction
The Warriors have dominated the spread in the last six home meetings, going 5-1-0 in the Bay Area. Denver is 1-7 ATS in the last eight meetings overall, and Chase Center is near impossible to win at to this point. Let’s just enjoy history from Curry and a win for the Dubs. Warriors by 12
Betting trends
The Nuggets are 1-8 ATS in their last nine off a road win of 3 points or less.
The Nuggets are 17-32 ATS off a road win over the past three seasons.
The Warriors are 14-4 ATS at home this season.
Projected starting lineup
Nuggets:
PG: Monte Morris
SG: Will Barton
SF: Aaron Gordon
PF: Jeff Green
C: Nikola Jokic
SF: Aaron Gordon
PF: Jeff Green
C: Nikola Jokic
Warriors:
PG: Stephen Curry
SG: Gary Payton II
SF: Andrew Wiggins
PF: Otto Porter Jr.
C: Kevon Looney
SF: Andrew Wiggins
PF: Otto Porter Jr.
C: Kevon Looney
Key injuries
Nuggets: Michael Porter Jr. (back, out), Jamal Murray (ACL, out)
Warriors: Draymond Green (COVID, out), Klay Thompson (Achilles, out), James Wiseman (knee, out), Damion Lee (COVID, out), Jordan Poole (COVID, out)
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
