by Chuck Sommers
Saturday, Nov 19, 2022
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Venue: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
Where to watch: BSSW-DAL, ALT
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Mavs -9.5
FanDuel: NL
BetMGM: NL
Caesars: Mavs -9
Season record
Nuggets: 9-6
Mavs: 9-6
What a thrilling start to the NBA season, and it's time to get your picks in for what should be an enticing season. A lot of new faces in new places already making an impact, and our champion handicappers are already starting to take notice. Look at our own Jack Banks off to a 3-0-0 start in the NBA this week. Nelly's Sports is also at 4-0-0 while Jim Feist has also cashed on his first two of the year. As the season progresses, you know we're going to be in a position to deliver you the best analysis and picks that one can have in this market. Make sure you check out our Best Bets page at bigal.com to find all of our handicappers' selections, comprehensive previews, and more!
Nuggets - Mavs preview, prediction and analysis
The Dallas Mavericks found out how to beat a team without its best players. Give them a cookie. Now try and do it again, with the chance those stars will be in the lineup this time, when the Mavs host the Denver Nuggets for the second time in three days on Sunday.
The Mavs took the first meeting on Friday 127-99 against a Denver team that didn’t have Nikola Jokic or Jamal Murray. That didn’t stop Luka Doncic from torching dudes again, putting up a triple-double of 33 points, 12 rebounds and 11 assists for his 50th career triple-double one game faster than Magic Johnson ever did.
“I don't look at the stat sheet, so I don't know if he has a triple-double or if he has 35 points,” Kidd said. “We've been playing him to start the fourth, so this is something we could be looking at going forward.”
Given that it was a blowout and whatnot, it’s not like Doncic knew how close he was to everything, but he still made it work. And now the Mavs are just trying to find some consistency. Sure, they’re 9-6 right now and have some quality wins under their belt, but they need to be better. Someone has to step up and take the load off Doncic before he disintegrates into the American Airlines Center floor. And for me, someone who admires what he does on the basketball court, I would like him to not die, please, thank you.
If the Nuggets do get some help back on Sunday, it should be a much better game than watching Doncic and Christian Wood dominate. The latter also had 28 points and eight rebounds in one of his better statistical outputs of the year.
The Nuggets had five players score in double figures, led by Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope scoring 18 points each, and Bones Hyland had 17 on 16 shots off the bench. But if you’re looking for coach Mike Malone, you might find him at your nearest catholic church.
“I’m going to go home and pray the rosary tonight that we can get some help,” Malone said.
The Nuggets are also at a 9-6 start, but three losses in four games has dampened the mood a little bit in Denver. Again, it doesn’t help not having the reigning two-time MVP on the floor for such things, but this highlights just how bare bones the Nuggets are without their stars.
Keep an eye on the line as this progresses. If there’s any chance Jokic and Murray are available, it might not hurt to take a chance on the points with Denver. If not, it’s probably best to take the Mavs in this one.
Prediction
Luka may not go for another triple-double, but he’ll be likely ready to exploit Denver’s defense if it plays that same kind of coverage on Friday. Mavs by 10
Betting trends
Nuggets are 44-49 ATS in road games the last 3 years.
Nuggets are 19-8 ATS after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread.
Nuggets are 17-21 ATS off a road loss the last 3 years.
Mavs are 1-6 ATS off an over this season.
Mavs are 0-7 ATS off a home win this year.
Projected starting lineup
Nuggets:
PG: Bruce Brown
SG: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
SF: Michael Porter Jr.
PF: Jeff Green
C: DeAndre Jordan
Mavs:
PG: Luka Doncic
SG: Spencer Dinwiddie
SF: Reggie Bullock
PF: Dorian Finney-Smith
C: Dwight Powell
Key Injuries
Nuggets: Nikola Jokic (Health and safety protocols), Jamal Murray (Health and safety protocols), Aaron Gordon (non-COVID illness)
Mavs: Maxi Kleber (out)
Statistical leaders
Nuggets:
Points: Nikola Jokic -- 20.8
Rebounds: Nikola Jokic -- 9.5
Assists: Nikola Jokic -- 8.9
Mavs:
Points: Luka Doncic -- 34.3
Rebounds: Luka Doncic -- 9.1
Assists: Luka Doncic -- 8.1
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert basketball picks today. And if you enjoyed this Denver Nuggets - Dallas Mavericks prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NBA projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
