by Chuck Sommers
Friday, Nov 11, 2022
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Venue: TD Garden, Boston, MA
Where to watch: NBC Sports Boston, ALT
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Celtics -4.5
FanDuel: Celtics -4.5
BetMGM: Celtics -4.5
Caesars: Celtics -4.5
Season record
Nuggets: 8-3
Celtics: 8-3
What a thrilling start to the NBA season, and it's time to get your picks in for what should be an enticing season. A lot of new faces in new places already making an impact, and our champion handicappers are already starting to take notice. Look at our own Jack Banks off to a 3-0-0 start in the NBA this week. Nelly's Sports is also at 4-0-0 while Jim Feist has also cashed on his first two of the year. As the season progresses, you know we're going to be in a position to deliver you the best analysis and picks that one can have in this market. Make sure you check out our Best Bets page at bigal.com to find all of our handicappers' selections, comprehensive previews, and more!
Nuggets - Celtics preview, prediction and analysis
Recent form
Nuggets: won four straight; won 122-119 at Pacers
Celtics: won four straight; won 128-112 vs. Pistons
The Boston Celtics and Denver Nuggets will always be that “could you imagine if they actually got something going and made an NBA Finals series out of it?” situation that may never come to fruition. But both teams are 8-3 heading into Frday’s matchup in Boston and it should be a good game as always.
The Boston Celtics and Denver Nuggets will always be that “could you imagine if they actually got something going and made an NBA Finals series out of it?” situation that may never come to fruition. But both teams are 8-3 heading into Frday’s matchup in Boston and it should be a good game as always.
Both teams are coming in on four-game winning streaks and have been scoring at a fairly high rate. Both Denver and Boston have eclipsed 120 points three times during this winning streak and the Celtics are listed as 4.5-point favorites going into this one.
The Nuggets are coming off a 122-119 win on the road against the Indiana Pacers. One thing that’s been noticeable over this run is how the Nuggets have played a lot of basketball away from Ball Arena. But Nikola Jokic finished with 24 points and six assists, while Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon finished with 18 points each, and Michael Porter Jr. chipped in with 16.
“We did enough on defense,” Murray said after playing a key role in the comeback. “I think they got a lot of fast-break points in the first half. We limited that in the second half and just contested every shot and we were able to get going on offense, too.”
While the Nuggets have done a great job scoring the ball, defense has been somewhat improved with more room to grow. In the home-and-home against the Spurs earlier in the week, Denver held San Antonio to 101 and 109 points respectively. There’s a need for this team to find defense at the right time and make the most of it.
The Celtics, meanwhile, a team that prides itself on defense has suddenly forgotten how to play on that side of the court, as well. But Boston did win 128-112 against the Detroit Pistons on Wednesday for that fourth straight win that includes wins over Chicago, New York and Memphis.
Per usual, it was the same suspects for the Celtics with Jayson Tatum scoring 31 points and dishing out five assists, while Jaylen Brown had 30 points with seven rebounds as a +25. Sam Hauser also chipped in off the bench with 24 points, including a 6-of-12 night from 3-point range.
“Little by little I'm earning more trust from (Celtics interim coach) Joe (Mazzulla)," Hauser said. “I've still got to keep doing things to earn minutes out there and earning a spot in the rotation.”
The Celtics will not have point guard Malcolm Brogdon, who is dealing with a hamstring injury. Robert Williams III is also going to remain out with a knee injury, though he has started to get back to on-court activities. Those are two losses that the Celtics are going to need to try and overcome from that instance and it’ll be hard to do that long term. But the Celtics’ depth has played well to this point and I expect that to continue.
Prediction
I want to see a little bit more out of Denver, especially with the Murray comeback, before I can definitively say that they’re back. Boston is playing great right now with the established guys and that’s where I think it continues. Celtics by 10
Betting trends
Nuggets are 23-29 ATS as an underdog the last three years.
Nuggets are 30-29 after a conference game the last three years.
Nuggets are 7-13 ATS following four consecutive wins the last three years.
Celtics are 37-41 ATS as a home favorite the last three years.
Celtics are 10-8 ATS against Northwest Division opponents the last three years.
Projected starting lineup
Nuggets:
PG: Jamal Murray
SG: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
SF: Michael Porter Jr.
PF: Aaron Gordon
C: Nikola Jokic
Celtics:
PG: Marcus Smart
SG: Derrick White
SF: Jaylen Brown
PF: Jayson Tatum
C: Al Horford
Key injuries
Nuggets: None
Celtics: Malcolm Brogdon (hamstring, out), Robert Williams III (knee, out)
Statistical leaders
Nuggets:
Points: Nikola Jokic -- 21.2
Rebounds: Nikola Jokic -- 9.9
Assists: Nikola Jokic -- 9.0
Celtics:
Points: Jayson Tatum -- 31.2
Rebounds: Jayson Tatum -- 6.9
Assists: Marcus Smart -- 7.0
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
