by Rod Pearson
Friday, Nov 28, 2025
Game Time: 8:20 pm ET, Sunday, November 30, 2025
Venue: Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD
Where to Watch: NBC, Peacock
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Broncos -5.5, Commanders +5.5; Over/Under: 43.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Broncos -5.5, Commanders +5.5; Over/Under: 43.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Broncos -5.5, Commanders +5.5; Over/Under: 43.5 points
Season Record
Denver Broncos: 9-2 (1st place, AFC West)
Washington Commanders: 3-8 (3rd place, NFC East)
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Denver Broncos: won their last game at home against the Kansas City Chiefs 22-19.
Washington Commanders: lost their last game at a neutral site against the Miami Dolphins 16-13 in overtime.
Denver Broncos vs Washington Commanders Preview and Analysis
The Broncos are entering this game with a 9-2 record overall and they have a 2-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 6-0 in their home games, 2-2 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Kansas City Chiefs 22-19. Bo Nix was the starting QB and he completed 24/37 passes for 295 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. RJ Harvey led the team in rushing yards with 30. Troy Franklin led the receivers with 84 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Ja'Quan McMillian led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Ja'Quan McMillian led the defense in sacks with 2. Ja'Quan McMillian came away with the only interception for them in that one.
The Commanders are entering this game with a 3-8 record overall and they have a 1-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 2-3 in their home games, 1-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Miami Dolphins 16-13 in OT. Marcus Mariota was the starting QB and he completed 20/30 passes for 213 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Chris Rodriguez led the team in rushing yards with 79. Deebo Samuel Sr. led the receivers with 74 receiving yards on 7 receptions and 1 TD. Jeremy Reaves led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Jonathan Jones, Von Miller, and Jacob Martin each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Broncos vs Commanders Prediction
The current betting odds have the Broncos listed as a 5.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Broncos have looked great in their games this season with their 9-2 record overall which has them right at the top of the AFC West with one of the best records in the entire NFL. They haven't been a great road team though with their 2-2 road record this season. Meanwhile, the Commanders haven't looked good in their games this season with their 3-8 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the NFC East. They haven't looked great on their home field either with their 2-3 home record this year. This season has been a disaster for the Commanders, dealing with a ton of injuries. They don't have Jayden Daniels either and the offense just hasn't looked the same with Mariota. They are coming out of their bye week after losing to the Dolphins in Spain, but that isn't going to help much with the Broncos also coming out of their bye week. The Broncos are off a 22-19 win over the Chiefs in their last one and they are going to carry that momentum into this one as they have a real chance at the number 1 seed in the AFC. They also have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and they haven't been giving up many points all year. This Commanders offense has already been struggling lately without Daniels at QB, now they are playing a much tougher defense and aren't going to get much done in this one. The Commanders haven't had a good defense themselves either so the Broncos will be able to pull away throughout this game. The best way to place a bet here is on the Broncos to cover the spread in this game.
Broncos Commanders Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, November 30, 2025 (8:20 pm ET start time) is Broncos 23 Commanders 10.
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NFL Betting Trends
Denver Broncos: 8-4 ATS in non-conference games. 7-2 ATS versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 130 rushing yards/game or more. 9-5 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 yards/play or more. 4-0 OVER as a road favorite of 7 points or less. 9-5 OVER versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 yards/play or more.
Washington Commanders: 1-6 ATS as a home underdog. 0-5 ATS after a loss by 6 or less points. 3-7 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses. 13-3 OVER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 6-0 OVER after scoring 14 points or less last game.
Key Injuries
Denver Broncos: A. Singleton (LB) Injured - Illness. J. Cooper (LB) Injured - Thumb. P. Surtain II (CB) Injured - Pectoral. N. Adkins (TE) Injured - Knee. J. Elliss (LB) Injured - Illness. P. Bryant (WR) Injured - Shoulder.
Washington Commanders: C. Moore (WR) Injured - Shoulder. J. Lane (WR) Injured - Hip. B. Sinnott (TE) Injured - Ankle. J. Daniels (QB) Injured - Elbow. A. Kaho (LB) Injured - Concussion. N. Brown (WR) Injured - Groin. T. Ott (LS) Injured - Illness. W. Harris (S) Injured - Ankle. F. Luvu (LB) Injured - Shoulder. T. McLaurin (WR) Injured - Quad. C. Rodriguez Jr. (RB) Injured - Illness. T. Burks (WR) Injured - Finger. D. Jackson (DL) Injured - Knee. Z. Ertz (TE) Injured - NIR-Rest. V. Miller (LB) Injured - NIR-Rest. L. Tunsil (OT) Injured - NIR-Rest.
Notable Quotes
“We've just got a resilient team that believes we're going to win, and at the end of the game when it's close, that belief goes a long way.” - Bo Nix after their win against the Chiefs in their last game.
“It’s tough. This one stings. Guys are definitely hurting, and I thought in a lot of spaces they battled, and we had our opportunity to go win it. We didn’t get that done.” - Dan Quinn after his team’s loss against the Dolphins in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Denver Broncos
WR Sutton, Courtland
WR Franklin, Troy
WR Bryant, Pat
TE Trautman, Adam
QB Nix, Bo
RB Harvey, RJ
FB Prentice, Adam
Washington Commanders
WR McLaurin, Terry
WR Moore, Chris
WR Samuel, Deebo
TE Ertz, Zach
QB Mariota, Marcus
RB Rodriguez Jr., Chris
Statistical Leaders
Denver Broncos
Passing: Bo Nix (2,421)
Rushing: J.K. Dobbins (772)
Receiving: Courtland Sutton (649)
Touchdowns: RJ Harvey (6)
Washington Commanders
Passing: Jayden Daniels (1,184)
Rushing: Jacory Croskey-Merritt (498)
Receiving: Deebo Samuel (470)
Touchdowns: Deebo Samuel (6)
Coaches:
Denver Broncos: Sean Payton (3rd season)
Washington Commanders: Dan Quinn (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
