by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Dec 29, 2022
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Where to watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Chiefs -12.5; Chiefs -740, Broncos +540; O/U 45
FanDuel: Chiefs -12.5; Chiefs -750, Broncos +530; O/U 45
BetMGM: Chiefs -12.5; Chiefs -750, Broncos +525; O/U 45
Caesars: Chiefs -12.5; Chiefs -833, Broncos +550; O/U 45
Season record
Broncos: 4-11
Chiefs: 12-3 (Clinched AFC West)
We’re coming down the home stretch of the NFL season and there’s still a lot left to get excited for on your TV screen (or your streaming device if you’re like me and watch Sunday Ticket on a Fire Stick. That works, too). Nevertheless, the final few weeks of the regular season are going to be hectic for everyone on the field, but just as much as everyone off it. You’re probably going to need to figure out which plays are the best ones in terms of teams sitting the star players for the playoff advantage, or which teams are going all in for the final playoff push. If you need that extra push, trust that our champion handicappers can get the job done for you. Matt Fargo has a 17-9-0 run over the last 30 days in the NFL. Brian Bitler has continued to stay consistent, despite a wild, unpredictable season, by going 16-9-0. Do you want a piece of this action? Make sure to stay locked to bigal.com and follow our champion handicappers so you can be a champion, too!
Broncos - Chiefs preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Broncos: lost 51-14 at Rams
Chiefs: won 24-10 vs. Seahawks
Broncos analysis
The Denver Broncos are the epitome of whatever-the-hell-aboutism that we’ve ever seen. The AFC West, as a whole, is a giant mess with the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs being the two making the playoffs. The Broncos were supposed to be one, but everything has gone to hell. Nathaniel Hackett has been fired. The Broncos’ offense has never looked more horrendous than it does now. Russell Wilson has as many touchdowns as he does bathrooms in his house. There are two games remaining, and if you’ve ever been more intrigued to see what a cluster looks like in the offseason, it might be this one.
The Broncos lost for the sixth time in seven games on Sunday. The opponent was the Los Angeles Rams. The final score was 51-14. There is no other way I can describe to you the merit of that game without really questioning what in the world I watched on Christmas Day. Russell Wilson completed just 15 of 27 passes for 214 yards, through for one touchdown and just three interceptions. It was about as abysmal or performance from this group as one could have possibly imagined. And the fact that that is what led to the Broncos firing Hackett is something that might have taken way too long to establish.
Surprisingly enough, the Broncos are just 6-9-0 against the spread this year, which is a much better result than I think anybody would have anticipated. And they might be in a decent position to cover once again being 12.5 favorites in this game. Yet I wouldn't be shocked if they didn't considering Kansas City as trying to clinch the number one seed in the AFC. If it were any other week, and if Kansas City had its playoff aspirations already unlock, this would be a week where I can definitely see Kansas City resting their star players. But given what's going on in Denver right now, I highly doubt that it is going to have any residual effect whatsoever.
Chiefs analysis
It has been a hot minute since the Kansas City Chiefs were actually doing well against the spread. You'd have to go back to October 23rd to find the last time Kansas City covered and that was in the 44-23 victory over San Francisco in which the chiefs were one point favorites. Kansas City finally covered for the first time in seven games after defeating the Seattle Seahawks 24-10 as 10.5 favorites against the struggling Seahawks. But the fact of the matter is Kansas City has clinched the AFC West, they are very much in position to clinch the number one overall seed if they win out and get some help, and no one wants to face this team going into Kansas City for a playoff game.
The chiefs have won eight of their last nine since losing to the Buffalo Bills back in October and given the weather in this game and how the field conditions looked, getting any decent offensive production from Patrick mahomes or Travis Kelce was going to be a bonus. Mahomes threw for 224 yards and two touchdowns and also ran for a touchdown, while the superstar tight end it caught six passes for 113 yards in one of his better games and what seems like recent memory. But Kansas City was able to win by way of its defense, holding Seattle to just 10 points. That's a far cry after giving up 24 to the Texans and 28 to the Broncos just three weeks ago.
this seems to be the perfect situation for Kansas City, being at home and finishing off what could be a solid into the season. The chiefs are playing their final home game before things start to Rev up for the playoffs and considering the fact they still don't know who their opponent is going to be, anything can happen in this situation. I have no idea what's going to happen when they make the playoffs but it's going to be one hell of a ride.
Prediction
Normally in this situation you would take the team that fired its head coach and you trust with whomever is replacing him and you hope for the best. Normally I would do that in the case of the Broncos but the Broncos have been horrible this year and I have absolutely no faith in them. Kansas City is still fighting for something and will use all of its firepower to go forth and get itself another victory. Chiefs 27, Broncos 7
Betting trends
Chiefs are 8-1 ATS at home after winning 6 or 7 of their last 8 the last 2 seasons.
Broncos are 32-17 ATS after losing 4 of their last 5 since 1992.
Broncos are 8-1 ATS after a turnover margin of -2 or worse the last 3 seasons.
Statistical leaders
Broncos:
Passing: Russell Wilson – 3,019 yards, 12 TD, 9 INT
Rushing: Latvaius Murray – 601 yards, 5 TD
Receiving: Jerry Jeudy – 790 yards, 6 TD
Defense: Justin Simmons – 5 INT
Chiefs:
Passing: Patrick Mahomes – 4,720 yards, 37 TD, 11 INT
Rushing: Isaiah Pacheco – 735 yards, 3 TD
Receiving: Travis Kelce – 1,257 yards, 12 TD
Defense: Chirs Jones – 12 sacks
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
