Game Time: 9:20 PM  ET, Friday, March 18th, 2022

Venue: Breslin Center, Lansing, Michigan

Where to Watch:  CBS

 

DraftKings Sportsbook:  Spartans -1; O/U 140

Caesars:  Spread:  NL

VegasInsider:  Spread:  Spartans -1; O/U 140.5

FanDuel: Spread:  Spartans -1; O/U 140.5

Davidson: 27-6 overall, Atlantic 10 Conference         10th Seed West bracket

Michigan State: 22-12 overall, Big Ten Conference     7th Seed West bracket

Yes, Finally a matchup that looks like a great game all the way through!  March Madness is built for this!  Two teams that have tournament history.  Two teams that have produced players that literally changed the NBA with their game.  The casual fan will know Davidson as the launching pad of Stephen Curry into our hearts and minds… Everyone in the nation that saw him play at Davidson winced when the Minnesota Timberwolves passed on Curry twice.  ( I remember where I was)... Everyone who loves basketball of a certain age remembers Magic Johnson winning the National Championship over LARRY BIRD at Michigan State.  Others of a different age remember Draymond Green smiling as he did all the dirty work for Michigan State and got vastly overlooked by every NBA franchise.  To know that these teams will play each other in the first round of the Tournament while being so evenly matched and differently abled brings real excitement.  The Vegas Sportsbooks don’t have the courage to go more than a point on this game.  Either team could take it easily given a 4th quarter run… or a shooting drought.  The glaring road sign for bettors is the O/U number of 140.5.  Both Davidson and Michigan State average more than 70 points a game… yet both Davidson and Michigan State hold opponents to just below 70 points a game.  That is thin betting ice to think that the defense will hold against two high scoring teams.  The Over should come in easy if each team is held to 1 or 2 points BELOW their averages.  It’s an odd time of year.  We will have to break down the numbers to see who will bust that lousy 1 point spread.

The Davidson Wildcats lost their conference championship game.  A big number for the cream of the Atlantic 10 Conference.  And to lose to the Richmond Spiders was pretty humbling as well… It was also a loss ATS. Davidson has won 7 of their last ten games. They went 6-4 ATS during that stretch.  The three teams that Davidson lost to were the University of Rhode Island, the Dayton Flyers, and the Richmond Spiders.  That does not bode well for going deep into the tournament.  The show on the court for Dayton is fantastic point guard Foster Loyer… a 6’0 guard that leads the team in scoring and assists 16.8 and 3.4.  Those assist numbers look low because they are.  College basketball numbers do not pair with NBA numbers because often the coach is pushing for a string of passes before the shot to get the best shot available per possession.  There is no hockey assist in basketball where the guy who set the play gets credit after the next pass.  Davidson leans on 6’10 forward Luka Brajkovic for 14.6 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 2.5 apg… but mostly the 1.2 blocks per game does not count all the shots he also changes.  Davidson also has a gunner in 6’7 guard Hyunjung Lee who is dropping 16.5 ppg in his third season at Davidson while hitting 38.6% of his threes.

The Michigan State Spartans are way more recognizable than the Davidson Wildcats.  We have all seen that green and white in the highest levels of competition.  We have all seen Tom Izzo patrolling the sidelines with a lifetime of experience that only comes with decades of great leadership. Michigan State lost to the Purdue Boilermakers in the Big Ten Championship… and they have only won 4 of their last 10 games.  They went 5-5 ATS during that stretch.  The encouraging thing for the Spartans is they beat Purdue in the regular season… so they can right the ship of the recent losing.  MSU is a real team effort… the leading scorer is 6’8 forward Gabe Brown at only 11.5 ppg… that is because the scoring is spread around. All the starters put up around 10 points a game… Tyson Walker, Max Christie, Joey Hauser, Marcus Bingham Jr… they all have an equal share in the success.  Forward Malik Hall and guard A.J. Hoggard add to the chorus of nearly 10 ppg scorers off the bench.. And before you know it … the team is at 72.1 ppg.  The wrench in the Spartans plans is that point guard Tyson Walker tweaked an ankle in the conference Championship loss.. He is listed as questionable for Friday’s game.  I have never seen a player listed as “Questionable” not play in the NCAA tournament.  If ever you were going to play through the pain it would be the tournament.  Also he could be fine.

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Davidson is 27-6 on the season, but 20-12 ATS.  They have logged 18 Overs and 14 Unders.  They are 5-2 on neutral courts.

The Michigan State Spartans are 22-12 on the season, but 18-15-1 ATS.  They have notched 18 Overs, 15 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are 5-3 on neutral courts.

Davidson is 61st in scoring with 75.8 ppg, 207th in rebounds with 31.7 per game, and 18th in AST/TO ratio with 1.5.  On defense they rank 87th while holding opponents to 66 points a game.

Michigan State is 150th in scoring with 72.1 ppg, 98th in rebounds with 33.6 per game, and 85th in AST/TO ratio with 1.2.  They are 155th on defense while holding opponents to 68.3 ppg.

Our prediction for Friday, March 18th is… Davidson 76 - Michigan State 73

Davidson will get the win and therefore the 1 point spread will not matter.  Michigan State simply does not have a good track record of winning this season.  MSU also has minor injury concerns.  

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Davidson is 10-1 ATS in non-conference games this season.

Davidson is 60-36 ATS off a loss against a conference rival since 1997.

Michigan State is 1-6 ATS after a game when they only made 53% of their free throws or worse the last 3 seasons.

Davidson: No injuries to report.

Michigan State: G Tyson Walker (ankle) Questionable

Davidson: Foster Loyer, Hyunjung Lee, Sam Mennega, Michael Jones, Luka Brajkovic

Michigan State: Tyson Walker, Max Christie, Joey Hauser, Marcus Bingham Jr, Gabe Brown