Dallas Stars vs. Tampa Bay Lightning: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 11/15/2022

by Chuck Sommers

Monday, Nov 14, 2022
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Venue: Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL
Where to watch: BSSWX, BSSUN

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Lightning -165, Stars +140
FanDuel: Lightning -164, Stars +136
BetMGM: Lightning -161, Stars +135
Caesars: Lightning -160, Stars +135

Season record
Stars: 9-5-1 (19 points)
Lightning: 8-6-1 (17 points)

What an electric start to the NHL season. So much parity, so many good teams through the first 10-plus games, you have every right to be excited! Of course the Vegas Golden Knights and Boston Bruins are heading the fun charge here as the top two teams in the league, because of course they are. But never count out the Avalanche, you know they're always going to be hanging around and will be eating worlds once they get everyone healthy. But this is a good time to be playing these hockey games, as well. Look no further than our own Doc's Sports on a 14-7-0 run over the first 30 days of the NHL season. There's also ASA, Inc. posting a 12-5-1 mark through the first month. You know you can trust our champion handicappers to get you across the finish line with your NHL bets. Check out our Best Bets page at bigal.com to see what we're throwing down!

Stars - Lightning preview, prediction and analysis


Recent results
Stars: won 5-1 at Flyers on Sunday 
Lightning: won 6-3 vs. Capitals on Saturday

Talk about two teams who could use a win who are in dire need of some consistency. The Dallas Stars were looking like one of the hotter teams in the league and then lost a couple to come back to Earth. The Tampa Bay Lightning have been hoping for some consistency for the last couple of weeks. Either way, whomever wins this game Tuesday will be looking very good after a win like this.
 
For the Stars, it’s about continuing the good habits on this road trip after winning 5-1 in Philadelphia on Sunday. The Stars snapped a two-game losing streak in which they allowed five goals against Winnipeg and San Jose, but found a way to score five of their own against the Flyers’ backup goalie and not fall victim to a trap game.
 
Joe Pavelski had a goal and two assists, and Jason Robertson had a goal and an assist to help pace Dallas to a much-needed victory. The Stars are hanging around at 9-5-1 and looking solid with the stars making a bulk of the plays.
 
"We knew we needed to win tonight," Stars coach Pete DeBoer said. "We look around the League and you see teams have these losing streaks, roll one into two, two into four or five. We wanted to make sure we didn't do that. This was an important game for us, an important start to the (three-game road) trip."
 
Dallas has this weird aura to them that it’s somehow getting production from everyone not named Robertson or Pavelski. Jamie Benn was scoring a bunch of goals at one point and now you wonder if he can keep this productivity up when the goals start to simmer down. Jake Oettinger, who made 37 saves, is a Vezina Trophy-caliber goalie. There’s a lot to make from this team, but finding the consistency to make it happen is something to look toward.
 
The Lightning are also hoping their 6-3 win against the Washington Capitals on Sunday can also propel them to something good. The three-time Eastern Conference champs are 8-6-1 going into this showdown with a need to string some more wins together. It’s still early, so it’s not like it’s required for Tampa to be on that pedestal, but to see them separate themselves would be good.
 
Mikhail Sergachev had another one of his random “I am God” games with two goals and two assists, and Nikita Kucherov scored for the Lightning in what was a dominant response after losing 5-1 in Washington a couple nights prior. And the fact Andrei Vasilevskiy faced only 22 shots had to be good for that side.
 
"For 57 minutes we didn't stray from anything and played a pretty solid hockey game," Tampa Bay coach Jon Cooper said. "Much more plusses than minuses, but we still have to make sure we are cleaning that stuff up.”
 

Prediction

 
We would normally talk about the home team having the advantage here, but I look at Dallas as this opportunity to use Oettinger for a second time in as many days. He’s back, healthy, and looked good against a scrappy Philly team. Tampa Bay has run into some good goaltending as of late and I think will struggle to find a way to counter Dallas’ downhill game. Stars win 3-1

Betting trends


Stars are 299-275 on the road following a road game since 1996.

Lightning are 20-3 at home after failing to cover 2 of 3 the last three years.

Stars are 4-13 in road games following a win by 3 or more the last 3 seasons.

Projected lines


Stars:

Jason Robertson -- Roope Hintz -- Joe Pavelski

Mason Marchment -- Tyler Seguin -- Matej Blumel

Jamie Benn -- Wyatt Johnston -- Ty Dellandrea

Radek Faksa -- Luke Glendening -- Joel Kiviranta

Miro Heiskanen -- Colin Miller

Ryan Suter -- Nils Lundkvist

Esa Lindell -- Jani Hakanpaa

Jake Oettinger

Lightning:

Brandon Hagel -- Brayden Point -- Nikita Kucherov

Steven Stamkos -- Nicholas Paul -- Alex Killorn

Cole Koepke -- Vladislav Namestnikov -- Ross Colton

Pat Maroon -- Pierre-Edouard Bellemare -- Corey Perry

Victor Hedman -- Ian Cole

Mikhail Sergachev -- Nick Perbix

Haydn Fleury -- Philippe Myers

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Statistical leaders


Stars:
Points: Jason Robertson -- 23
Goals: Jason Robertson -- 10
Assists: Jason Robertson -- 13
Goalie: Jake Oettinger -- 6-2-1, 1.80 GAA, .938 SV%

Lightning:
Points: Nikita Kucherov -- 23
Goals: Nikita Kucherov -- 7
Assists: Nikita Kucherov -- 16
Goalie: Andrei Vasilevskiy -- 5-5-1, 3.10 GAA, .898 SV%

Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert hockey picks today. And if you enjoyed this Dallas Stars - Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NHL projections and previews.

Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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