by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Nov 28, 2022
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Venue: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO
Where to watch: BSMW, BSSW
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Stars -120, Blues +100
FanDuel: Stars -113, Blues -106
BetMGM: EVEN
Caesars: Stars -120, Blues +100
Season record
Stars: 12-6-4
Blues: 11-10-0
What an electric start to the NHL season. So much parity, so many good teams through the first 10-plus games, you have every right to be excited! Of course the Vegas Golden Knights and Boston Bruins (and the New Jersey Devils?) are heading the fun charge here as the top two teams in the league, because of course they are. But never count out the Avalanche, you know they're always going to be hanging around and will be eating worlds once they get everyone healthy. But this is a good time to be playing these hockey games, as well. Look no further than our own Doc's Sports on a 14-7-0 run over the first 30 days of the NHL season. There's also ASA, Inc. posting a 12-5-1 mark through the first month. You know you can trust our champion handicappers to get you across the finish line with your NHL bets. Check out our Best Bets page at bigal.com to see what we're throwing down!
Stars - Blues preview, prediction and analysis
Recent results
Stars: lost 4-1 at Avalanche
Blues: won 5-4 (OT) at Panthers
The Dallas Stars were bound to have a clunker at some point. Even in their losses over the last number of weeks, they've been entertaining and they found a way to get points out of these games. So to have a bad game against the defending Stanley Cup champions over the weekend was not a total surprise given how much they've had to come back and steal points whenever they could over the last week. But now it's not about to get any easier for Dallas when they have to go on the road to St. Louis to take on a Blues team that has won eight of its last 10 and also rebounded in a nice way after dropping two games, clunkers of their own.
The Dallas Stars were bound to have a clunker at some point. Even in their losses over the last number of weeks, they've been entertaining and they found a way to get points out of these games. So to have a bad game against the defending Stanley Cup champions over the weekend was not a total surprise given how much they've had to come back and steal points whenever they could over the last week. But now it's not about to get any easier for Dallas when they have to go on the road to St. Louis to take on a Blues team that has won eight of its last 10 and also rebounded in a nice way after dropping two games, clunkers of their own.
Dallas is coming off a 4-1 loss to the Colorado Avalanche over the weekend in which ended a run of seven straight games with at least a point. Behind that run that has gotten Dallas to the top of the central division standings through 22 games, has undoubtedly been the play of Jason Robertson. If there's any favorite right now for the MVP of the league, it is without question the 40-goal scorer out of Dallas. In what has been an incredible offensive renaissance for Dallas to this point, no one has been as tremendous as Robertson. With 35 points in 22 games, 18 of those being goals, it seems like as of late that if you are a team in need of a clutch goal, you wish Robertson was on your team.
Robertson has nine points, and seven goals, in his last five games. But if you look up and down the board, it is insane what Dallas is putting together. Jamie Benn has 24 points in 22 games, Joe Pavelski has 24 points in 22 games, and Tyler Seguin has 18 points in 22 games. There's no way anybody would have thought that Dallas would be able to get this kind of production out of a Pete DeBoer-coached team. so far, the new Dallas coach has pushed all the right buttons and Dallas has looked tremendous. They have the 4th best power play in the league, the third-best penalty kill, and the second-best offense at scoring 3.82 goals per game. It doesn't make sense, but it is an absolutely fun team to watch and if you're not on the bandwagon right now I don't know what you're doing.
Another fun team right now happens to be Dallas’ opponent going into this game period because even after losing by a combined 11-4 in their first two losses since their seven-game winning streak, the Blues rebounded quite nicely with a 5-4 overtime victory against the Florida Panthers. Now I know Florida is off to an average start to start the season, but anytime you can defeat the defending Presidents' Trophy winners, especially on the road, it tends to be a very good day.
Leading the way over the last five games has been forward Pavel Buchnevich with nine points and four goals in that span. Robert Thomas is also gotten things going after a slow start to the season with six assists in his last five games. But what has been more noteworthy in the Blues getting off to this good run has been the play of goalie Jordan Binnington. The goalie has rebounded to make his stats look more respectable than they were at the beginning of the year, now with a 9-7-0 record and a save percentage above .900.
Keep in mind this was a playoff team last year, and they are well on their way to being a playoff team again this year. The only difference is that the central division is a lot more of a bloodbath than we had initially anticipated, and Dallas just so happens to be leading the charge. The Winnipeg Jets are not that far behind them, and neither are the avalanche having played three fewer games. If Dallas wants to assert dominance in this division, it needs to start winning some games like this.
Prediction
Dallas goalie Jake Oettinger has been a little up and down over the last number of games, but he is still playing like he is deserving of some top goalie love. I think it will benefit Dallas from going on the road and trying to rebound after that clunker in Colorado, and I think they need a win against a good St. Louis team to get back on track. Stars win 3-2
Betting trends
Stars are 194-136 off a loss to a division opponent since 1996.
Stars are 112-96 off a road loss to a division opponent since 1996.
Blues are 128-87 off a road win by 1 goal since 1996.
Projected lines
Stars:
Jason Robertson -- Roope Hintz -- Joe Pavelski
Mason Marchment -- Tyler Seguin -- Denis Gurianov
Jamie Benn -- Wyatt Johnston -- Ty Dellandrea
Joel Kiviranta -- Radek Faksa -- Luke Glendening
Miro Heiskanen -- Colin Miller
Ryan Suter -- Nils Lundkvist
Esa Lindell -- Jani Hakanpaa
Jake Oettinger
Jason Robertson -- Roope Hintz -- Joe Pavelski
Mason Marchment -- Tyler Seguin -- Denis Gurianov
Jamie Benn -- Wyatt Johnston -- Ty Dellandrea
Joel Kiviranta -- Radek Faksa -- Luke Glendening
Miro Heiskanen -- Colin Miller
Ryan Suter -- Nils Lundkvist
Esa Lindell -- Jani Hakanpaa
Jake Oettinger
Blues:
Brandon Saad -- Ryan O'Reilly -- Vladimir Tarasenko
Pavel Buchnevich -- Robert Thomas -- Jordan Kyrou
Ivan Barbashev -- Brayden Schenn -- Noel Acciari
Alexey Toropchenko -- Nikita Alexandrov -- Tyler Pitlick
Torey Krug -- Justin Faulk
Nick Leddy -- Colton Parayko
Niko Mikkola -- Robert Bortuzzo
Jordan Binnington
Brandon Saad -- Ryan O'Reilly -- Vladimir Tarasenko
Pavel Buchnevich -- Robert Thomas -- Jordan Kyrou
Ivan Barbashev -- Brayden Schenn -- Noel Acciari
Alexey Toropchenko -- Nikita Alexandrov -- Tyler Pitlick
Torey Krug -- Justin Faulk
Nick Leddy -- Colton Parayko
Niko Mikkola -- Robert Bortuzzo
Jordan Binnington
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
