Game Time: 9:00 PM ET, Thursday, April 21st, 2022 

Venue:    Vivint Arena, Salt Lake City, Utah

Where to Watch: NBA TV

DraftKings:  Spread: Jazz -6; O/U 210.5

Fanduel:  Spread:  Jazz -6; O/U 210.5

BetMGM:  Spread: Jazz - 6.5; O/U 210.5

Mavericks: 52-30, 4th place Western Conference

Jazz: 49-33, 5th place Western Conference

An NBA first round Playoff series in the Western Conference… This series is supposed to be close historically.  It’s the 4th Seed vs the 5th Seed.  They are supposed to be even.  Yet the Jazz stink.  I say that knowing full well the series is even at 1-1 and the Jazz have stolen home court advantage.  The reason the Jazz stink is that they were gifted a Dallas Mavericks matchup… while the Mavericks were missing  PG LUKA DONCIC!  Say that again… The Mavs ARE missing a top-five player… and clearly their best player. The Mavs are missing a guy who leads the team in Points, Rebounds, and Assists… The Mavs are missing a guy whose usage rate needs a separate scale to understand just HOW MUCH the Mavs run through LUKA!???  And the Jazz let the Mavs get a win.  This means that the Jazz are flirting with silliness. If you play the Mavs while Luka is out… You need to win every game… cause when Luka returns bothe your stars (Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell) will be roasted by talent of that level.  That being said… Luka may or may not be getting back to this series.  The Jazz may have lost the only game they are going to lose… After All they are going home for a two-game stand.  But wow!

The Dallas Mavericks improbably won the first game of this series without PG Luka Doncic. They got contributions from everyone!  SG Jalen Brunson, PG Spencer Dinwiddie, SF Reggie Bullock, and SF Dorian Finney-Smith.  I know what you are thinking…. WHO?.  That is right.  The rest of the Mavericks are chumps who no one has ever heard of unless that guy played for your favorite team… off the bench.  The Mavs are built to provide support for the possible best player in the league Luka Doncic.  That support, however , was freed up when Luka went out.  They got to do all the ball handling and shooting that they could literally handle… it worked… They won one game… and then lost the second.  Scrubs can rise for a game… they do not rise all the time.

The Utah Jazz won game 2 of the series… stealing home court advantage and paying penance for losing Game 1.  The Jazz are heavily favored at home against a Mavs team without Luka.  The rumor mill tried to add a “Luka could be back” rumor… but the Jazz know better.  SG Donovan Mitchell had 34 points in the win… SF Bojan Bogdanovic had 25 points in the win… C Rudy Gobert had 17 rebounds in the win.  Game 2 was purely a Jazz win.  In exactly the way the Jazz have drawn it up.  The X factor for the Jazz is backup SG Jordan Clarkson who had 21 points in the win and 10 points in the loss.  The Mavericks will enter the first game in Utah tied… if they get another game… The Jazz should immediately break up this worthless squad.  The individual players are not worthless but this is 4-5 seasons in a row hoping for the same results while doing the same thing.  

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The Mavericks are 53-31 on the season, but 47-36-1 ATS.  They have logged 32 Overs, 51 Unders, and 1 Push. They are 23-18 in road games.

The Jazz are 50-34 on the season, but 34-46-4 ATS.  They have notched 38 Overs, 44 Unders, and 2 Push.  They are 29-12 in home games.

The Mavericks are 24th in scoring with 108.0 ppg, 24th in rebounds with 43 per game, and 9th in AST/To ratio with 1.9.  On defense they rank 2nd while holding opponents to 104.7 ppg.

The Jazz are 7th in scoring with 113.6 ppg, 3rd in rebounds with 46.3 per game, and 27th in AST/TO ratio with 1.6.  On defense they rank 1oth while holding opponents to 107.6 ppg

 

Our prediction for Thursday, April 21st is…..  Jazz 118 - Mavs 100

The Jazz will blow out the Mavs.  Without Luka the already slow offense literally has no pop!  The Jazz get an easy first game at home and the Mavs have to rethink the Luka return timetable.

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Dallas is 56-44 ATs versus Utah since 1996.

Utah is 3-2 ATS versus Dallas at Utah the last 3 seasons.

3 of 5 games in this series have gone Under.

Mavs: SF Luka Doncic, though he plays PG (calf) Out ** PG Frank Ntilikina (ill) Quest ** Sg Tim Hardaway JR (foot) Out

Jazz;: C Udoh Azubuike (ankle) Out ** 

Starting Lineups

Mavericks: SF Dorian Finney Smith, PF Reggie Bullock, C Dwight Powell, SG Jalen Brunson, PG Spencer Dinwiddie

Jazz: PF Royce O'Neale, SF Bojan Bogdanovic, C Rudy Gobert, PG Mike Conley, SG Donovan Mitchell

Mavericks: Jason Kidd

Jazz: Quin “I dunno about the Lakers” Snyder