Dallas Mavericks vs Phoenix Suns Prediction, Spread and Trends to Watch - 05/15/2022

by James Q

Dallas Mavericks vs Phoenix Suns Prediction, Spread and Trends to Watch - 05/15/2022

Game Time: 8:00 PM ET, Sunday, May 15th, 2022 
Venue:   Footprint Center, Phoenix, Arizona
Where to Watch:  TNT

Opening NBA Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Suns -6; O/U 205
Fanduel:  Suns -6; O/U 205
BetMGM: Suns -6.5; O/U 205.5

NBA Standings

Mavericks: 52-30, 4th place Western Conference; 3-3 on the series
Suns: 64-18, 1st place Western Conference; 3-3 on the series

Another GREAT BIG Game 7!...  The Second Round Playoff matchup between the Western Conference #1 Seed Suns and the #4 Seed Mavericks.  Playoff history says this series should be over already.  The Suns were seemingly unstoppable in the regular season and dispatched team after team under the might of their trio of stars (Devin Booker, CP3, Deandre Ayton) and their extra deep bench.  The Mavericks don’t have a trio of stars and until very recently no one believed they were all that deep.  Yet the Mavericks do have something the Suns do not… PG Luka Doncic.  Luka is a bizarre hybrid of LeBron James, Allen Iverson, and Jason Kidd… He always has the ball in his hands and routinely registers triple doubles with insane point totals!  Doncic is the best player in the series… The attention he brings has also given life to SG Jalen Brunson, SF Dorian-Finney Smith, and backup PF Maxi Kleber… There are others on the squad but these three seem to have very productive games in Mavericks wins.    All of that is very exciting!... but who do we put our money on?

The Dallas Mavericks have won 6 of their last 10 games.  They went 7-3 ATS during that stretch.  They have logged 3 Overs and 7 Unders.  The Mavericks have been holding off playoff elimination desperately… having gone down 0-2 in the series… They clawed their way back by winning 3 of the last 4.  Now the Suns have to desperately fight off elimination as well.  Dallas won Game 6 113-86 by getting 33 points, 11 rebounds, and 8 assists from Luka… He got help from Brunson, Bullock, and Dinwiddie… each scoring in the high teens.  C Dwight Powell and PF Maxi Kleber didn’t contribute much… but they had their hands full all night playing defense against Suns Center Deandre Ayton.

The Phoenix Suns have won 6 of their last 10 games.  They went 6-4 ATS during that stretch.  5 Overs and 5 Unders.  The Suns have had a great combo of top-five offense and top ten defense.  In the loss they got 21 points and 11 rebounds out of C Deandre Ayton… with very low output from PG Chris Paul (13 points) and SG Devin Booker (19 points). In a normal Suns win when either CP3 or Booker had bad games … they would be lifted by big games from SF Mikal Bridges and PF Jae Crowder… not in Game 6… In Game 6 it seemed the Suns collectively quit.  Down big early… only Devin Booker played more than 30 minutes among the starters.  Plus McGee, Payton, and Holiday did not even play (two of those guys are key backups). 

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Dallas Mavericks vs Phoenix Suns Preview and Analysis

Recent Form

Dallas is 59-35 on the season, but 54-39-1 ATS. They have logged 35 Overs, 58 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are 25-22 in road games.

Phoenix is 71-23 on the season, but 51-43 ATS.  They have notched 46 Overs, 47 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are 37-10 in home games.

Offensive Analysis

The Mavericks  are 24th in scoring with 108.0 ppg, 24th in rebounds with 43.0 per game, and 9th in AST/TO ratio 1.9. On defense they rank 2nd while holding opponents to 104.7 ppg.

The Suns are 5th in scoring with 114.8 ppg, 10th in rebounds with 45.3, 3rd AST/TO 2.1.  On defense they rank 9th while holding opponents to 107.3 ppg.

Dallas Mavericks vs Phoenix Suns Game Prediction 

Our prediction for Sunday, May 15th is…..  Suns 118 - Mavericks 110

Bad beat alert!  This game could go either way.  It has been an epic battle so far… and on the surface the numbers say the Suns at Home will do what every #1 team should do and close it out big!  But there has been plenty of uncertainty… Luka could drop 50 while Kleber and Powell actually holds Ayton to pedestrian levels of all-star play.  On the other hand Chris Paul could simply give you his basic “best 4th quarter player” game that he has dished out for several seasons now.  The one thing I feel certain about is the OVER.  205 is ridiculously small for a Game 7… that if it is close it will lead to free throws and threes all through the 4th quarter which will rocket the score past the silly 205 mark.   Bet the OVER.

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NBA Betting Trends

The Mavs are 369-284 ATS as a road underdog since 1996.
The Mavs are 7-0 after allowing 90 points or less this season.
The Suns are 33-12 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less the last 3 seasons.
The Suns are 70-38 off an upset loss as a road favorite since 1996.

Injury List

Mavs: SG Tim Hardaway Jr (foot) Out
Suns: SF Dario Saric (knee) Out 

Starting Lineups

Mavs: SF Dorian Finney-Smith, SF Reggie Bullock, C Dwight Powell, SG Jalen Brunson, PG Luka Doncic

Suns: SF Mikal Bridges, PF Jae Crowder, C Deandre Ayton, SG Devin Booker, PG Chris Paul


Mavericks: Jason “Supervillian” Kidd
Suns: Monty “Superhero” Williams

James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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