Game Time: 10:00 PM ET, Monday, May 2nd, 2022 

Venue:    Footprint Center, Phoenix, Arizona

Where to Watch: TNT

DraftKings:  Suns -5.5; O/U 214.5

Fanduel:  Suns -5.5; O/U 215

BetMGM: Suns -5.5; O/U 214.5

Mavericks: 52-30, 4th place Western Conference

Suns: 64-18, 1st place Western Conference

Round 2 NBA Western Conference Playoff matchup between the #1 Phoenix Suns and the #4 Dallas Mavericks.  The Western Conference was full of surprises this season.  The Phoenix Suns won games at an incredible rate… but several of the known contenders fell off the radar.  The Los Angeles Lakers turned into a joke… The Los Angeles Clippers were scrappy but wound up with 100+ million in salary on their injured list for the end of the season.  The Warriors are still alive and still a threat… but struggled to get and keep all their players on the floor at the same time (a feat they did not succeed at all in the regular season)... The Denver Nuggets were missing their second and third best players leaving last season’s MVP NIkola Jokic to flounder into obscurity.  The Minnesota Timberwolves played horrible most of the season… then surprisingly turned everything up to an ELEVEN when the postseason hit. They got eliminated by the Grizzlies but not without a pure fight for it.  The writing is on the wall… The Suns MUST do it now!  If they do not… No one has any idea what the conference or the aSuns chances will look like next season.  The Mavericks are an odd bird indeed.  They have the best young player in the league in PG Luka Doncic… Luka plays like LeBron… Luka plays like Jason Kidd… Luka plays like Allen Iverson… It’s all in there.  The surprising thing about the Mavericks is they had the courage to trade aways C Kristaps Porzingis at the trade deadline.  The result is they are slightly better.  It turns out that all those faceless NBA role players outside of Luka that make up the Mavericks… are good.  SG Jalen Brunson, SF Dorian Finney-Smith, C Dwight Powell, positionless Reggie Bullock… F Maxi Kleber, G Spencer Dinwiddie.  These faceless Mavs even won a couple of playoff games when Luka was suffering or underperforming.

The Mavs beat the Utah Jazz in six games to get to the second round.  They were 4-2 in the series but 5-1 ATS.  They were a great betting opportunity.  Keeping it close in losses on the road and winning big in wins… if you subtract Game 1. In the last game of the first round the Mavs closed out the Jazz 98-96 while the spread was just 1 point.  The relied heavily on 24 point form Luka Doncic and 24 points from Jalen Brunson.  G Spencer Dinwiddie added 19 pts, and SF Dorian Finney-Smith added 18 pts… but it was the defense that stymied the Jazz.  The Mavs are playing like a coherent unit on defense… covering shooters, getting hands up, blocking out.  Doing that against the jazz is not the same as trying it against the Suns.

It wasn’t so easy to get here for the Phoenix Suns… they faced a tough New Orleans Pelicans team that frankly surprised them.  PG Chris Paul came back from injury to play the series, SG Devin Booker missed two games because of injury, C Deandre Ayton took some lumps but played through.  The Pelicans showed that they were uber athletic and relied heavily on SG CJ McCollum and SF Brandon Ingram… both stars who signal a strong future for the Pelicans, if only the Pelicans can resolve the PF Zion Williamson situation.  The Suns were the best team in the NBA this season and they lost two games to the Pelicans.  The last game however was undeniably a CP3 crowning of a legend.  PG Chris Paul shot 14 of 14 from the field for 33 points and a 115-109 win that was also a win ATS.  The encouraging thing for the Suns was that SG Devin Booker returned from hamstring soreness to signal he is here for the long haul.

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Dallas is 56-32 on the season, but 51-36-1 ATS.  They have logged 35 Overs, 54 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are 25-19 in away games.

The Suns are 68-20 on the season, but 48-40 ATS.  They have notched 44 Overs, 43 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are 34-10 in home games.

The Dallas Mavericks are 24th in scoring with 108.0 ppg, 24th in rebounds with 43.0 per game, and 9th in AST/TO ratio with 1.9. On defense they rank 2nd while holding opponents to 104.7 ppg.

The Phoenix Suns are 5th in scoring with 114.8 ppg, 10th in rebounds with 45.3 per game, and 3rd in AST/TO ratio with 2.1.  On defense they rank 9th while holding opponents to 107.3 ppg.

Our prediction for Monday, May 2nd is….. Suns 123 - Mavericks 109

This is a big bet for the Suns. Also a big bet for the Over.  Do it.  Parlay both bets and multiply your return.  The numbers say that the Suns will feel relief to be up against a bunch of role players instead of a bunch of question marks that they faced in New Orleans.  CP3 will not have a 14 for 14 game… but who exactly on the Mavs will stop him from getting 30 points and 10 assists?... SG Dewvin Booker may still be handled with kid gloves… but backup SG Cameron Jhson will not have to face NO SG Herbert Jones… the difference will be palpable. The Suns will cruise through this series better then they did New Orleans.    Do it Parlay the Suns and the Over… then check back to tell me what color Range Rover you will be getting.

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Dallas is 28-14 ATS versus good defensive teams… allowing less than 108 ppg over the last 3 seasons.

Dallas is 72-45 ATS in road games over the last 3 seasons.

Phoenix is 31-12 ATS as a home favorite the last 3 seasons.

Phoenix is 49-26 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more games.

Mavs: SG Tim Hardaway Jr (foot) Out… has been out the whole way so far.

Suns: SF Dario Saric (knee) He has missed the whole season and is not in the plans.

Mavs: SF Dorian Finney-Smith, PF Reggie Bullock, C Dwight Powell, SG Jalen Brunson, PG Luka Doncic

Suns: C Deandre Ayton, PG Chris Paul, SG Devin Booker, SF Mikal; Bridges, PF Jae Crowder

Mavericks: Jason “supervillian” Kidd

Suns: Monty “Superhero” Williams