Game Time: 7:00 PM ET, Sunday, January 30th, 2022 

Venue:  Amway Center, Orlando, Florida

Where to Watch:  NBA League Pass

DraftKings:  Spread: Mavs -5; O/U 211

BetMGM:  Spread:  Mavs -5.5; 211.5

VegasInsider:  Spread: Mavs -5.5; O/U 211.5

WynnBet: Spread:  Mavs -5.5; O/U 211.5

Mavericks: 28-21, 5th place Western Conference

Magic: 10-40, 15th place Eastern Conference

Hardly a battle at all.  This will be a non-conference matchup between a real team in the Western Conference and a fugazzi team in the Eastern Conference.   The Dallas Mavericks struggled at the outset of this season.  Star point guard Luka Doncic came in a bit out of shape and had to play himself into where he is now… The Mavericks again were struck with questions like “Why does Kristaps Porzingis seem to not like playing with Luka Doncic?”  and instead of saying it was because Luka rarely passes the ball ( a poor accusation against the player leading the team in assists).. They simply remained mum… and everyone hoped everything would work out.  It kind of did.  Covid and a variety of injuries hit the team and Kristaps got to play several games without Luka… He played great.  The 7’1 Unicorn is still a fantastic player….  He also found out he needs Luka out there if they are going to win games. So the Mavericks righted the ship and climbed from 8th place into 5th place.  They are on track….    The Orlando Magic on the other hand… started the season awful, lost players to covid and injury and stayed awful… got some players back and are still awful… tried different rotations and starters and stayed awful.  A big part of why Orlando is awful is because they want to be awful.  This year is worth nothing to Orlando if they don’t get the 1st or 2nd pick.  Over the last 1 ½ seasons Orlando (the bad team) traded away every player of any quality they had and loaded up on draft picks and young players that weren’t making their mark with whoever drafted them.  They also drafted PG/SG Jalen Suggs with the #5 pick in the last draft.  So the plan is to get a top pick this year because they lost so much… add that new guy to this new guy… and get in another half dozen trades and really try to build something.   The problem with the plan is it leaves little chance of the Magic being any good between now and the next 4-5 years.  It’s a shame and the NBA should introduce the concept of relegation.  This team is bad and the management wants it bad.  We will get lots of trade discussions and draft pick projections for the Magic over the next several seasons… we just won’t get much quality basketball.

The Dallas Mavericks have won 7 of their last 10 games.  Two of the losses were to the leagues best teams.. The Phoenix Suns and the Golden State Warriors… so the Mavericks are flat out a good team.  They are really a good duo.  PG Luka Doncic and PF/C Kristaps Porzingis are legit stars.  Every other player on the roster is a quality NBA role player.  They just don’t have that third guy they can point to.  People say SF Dorian Finney-Smith is the #3 except he really isn’t… Jalen Brunson, Dwight Powell, Maxi Kleber… They are all the same.  Great bench players if you can get them but underwhelming if you need them to start.  The Mavs are also up against not being able to really add anyone since they are so far into the cap with the two stars they have.  So if a Championship is the goal… then PG Luka Doncic who is already a top-three player in the league… will have to get 2x-3x better.  The Mavs are 5-5 ATS over the last ten.

The Magic are bad. They have won 3 of their last 10 games and that might be their best 10 game stretch of the season.  The 5-5 ATS over their last ten games is about as good as it gets when gambling on them.  Sometimes a losing team brings great returns because they cover the big spreads that get attached to their names.  If this season is the example then Orlando is not that team.  Orlando routinely drops double-digit spreads… They weren’t able to cover 11.5 two different times over the last 10 games.  The Magic are bad.  Leading scorer PG Cole Anthony and leading rebounder PF Wendell Carter Jr look like keepers on some future roster while rookie SF Franz Wagner and rookie SF Jalen Suggs are both playing well FOR ROOKIES… yet that is where the team runs it’s biggest risk.  Losing is a disease and if you subject young players to deliberate losses they can become infected.  The injury list on this team is a mile long and every name on there (except E'Twaun Moore) is a former NBA lottery pick that got infected with the losing and has never recovered. C Mo Bamba leads the team in blocks and was an Orlando 1st round pick in 2018… he will most likely be on the trading block this deadline so the team can avoid giving him a bigger contract after his rookie deal is up. It’s all a mess and you couldn’t get me to bet on the Magic no matter who they were playing.

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Dallas is 28-21 on the season, but 25-24 ATS.  They have logged 15 Overs, 33 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are 13-12 in road games.

Orlando is 10-40 on the season, but 22-28 ATS.  They have notched 25 Overs, 24 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are a league-worst 4-18 in home games.  

The Mavericks are 26th in scoring with 105.5 ppg, 22nd in rebounds with 44 per game, and 6th in AST/TO ratio with 1.9. They are shooting 20th in FG%, 25th in 3PT%, and 16th in FT%.  

 

The Magic are 28th in scoring with 102.4 ppg, 25th in rebounds with 43.5 per game, and 28th in AST/TO ratio with 1.5.  They are shooting 28th in FG%, 27th in 3PT%, and 10th in FT%.  They rank 21st on defense which is actually great for a team this bad… they give up 110.4 ppg to opponents… oh and everyone beats them unless the other team is undergoing a crisis of injury, exhaustion, or boredom.

 

Our prediction for Sunday, January 30th is….  Mavericks 118 - Magic 103

The Mavericks will blanket the Magic easily.  The Mavs are loaded with grinding role players… that is something rookie high draft picks always suffer against.  The Magic will focus entirely on Luka and Kristaps whom they have no players anywhere near as good and the role players will pick apart the Magic Defense.

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Dallas is 3-2 ATS versus Orlando over the last 3 seasons.

(Dallas is 5-0 SU versus Orlando over the last 3 seasons)

Orlando is 1-1 ATS versus Dallas at Orlando the last 3 seasons.

Both games in this series at Orlando have gone OVER

Mavs: SG Sterling Brown (foot) Out ** SG Tim Hardaway Jr (foot) Out

Magic: PG RJ Hampton ** PG Markelle Fultz (knee) Out ** PF Jonathan Isaac (knee) Out ** PG Michael Carter-Williams (ankle) Out

Mavs: SF Dorian Finney-Smith, PF Maxi Kleber, C Kristaps Porzingis, SG Jalen Brunson, PG Luka Doncic

Magic: SF Franz Wagner, PF Wendell Carter Jr, C Mo Bamba, SG Jalen Suggs, PG Cole Anthony 

Mavs

Points: Luka Doncic 25.2

Assists: Luka Doncic 8.7

Rebounds: Luka Doncic 8.9

Steals: Dorian Finney-Smith 1.2

Blocks: Kristaps Porzingis 1.8 

Magic

Points: Cole Anthony 17.9

Assists: Cole Anthony 6.0

Rebounds: Wendell Carter Jr 10

Steals: Chuma Okeke 1.4

Blocks: Mo Bamba 2.1

Mavericks:  Jason Kidd

Magic: Jamahl Mosley