Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/15/2024

Game Time: 9:30 pm ET, Wednesday, May 15, 2024

Venue:  Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK 

Where to Watch:  TNT, MAX

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Mavericks +4, Thunder -4; Over/Under:  213 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Mavericks +4.5, Thunder -4.5; Over/Under:  213 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Mavericks +3.5, Thunder -3.5; Over/Under:  213.5 points

Dallas Mavericks:  50-32 (1st place, Southwest Division)

Oklahoma City Thunder:  57-25 (1st place, Northwest Division)

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Dallas Mavericks:  6-4 last 10

Oklahoma City Thunder:  8-2 last 10

The Mavericks are entering this game with a 50-32 record overall to finish the regular season and they were 25-16 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Oklahoma City Thunder in their last game. P.J. Washington led the team in points in that game with 21 while Luka Dončić was next on the team with 18 points. Luka Dončić led the team in assists in that game with 10 while Luka Dončić and P.J. Washington each led the team in rebounds with 12. They were 40.9% from the field, 34.3% from 3-point range, and 52.2% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 117.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 115.6 PPG against them. The Mavericks have an ATS record of 54-38 this season and their O/U record is 40-51-1.

The Thunder are entering this game with a 57-25 record overall to finish the regular season and they were 33-8 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Dallas Mavericks in their last game. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team in points in that game with 34 while Chet Holmgren was next on the team with 18 points. Jalen Williams led the team in assists in that game with 6 while Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren each led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 38% from the field, 25.9% from 3-point range, and 95.8% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 120.1 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 112.7 PPG against them. The Thunder have an ATS record of 51-38-1 this season and their O/U record is 46-41-3.

The current betting odds have the Thunder listed as a 4 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 5 of a 7 game series between the 1st seeded Thunder and the 5th seeded Mavericks for Round 2 of the NBA Western Conference playoffs. This series is all tied up 2-2 after the Thunder won game 4 of this series on the road. The Thunder split their first 2 home games in this series but they were able to get 1 of those games back in game 4, beating the Mavericks in Dallas and flipping the home advantage in this series back on their side. Now the Thunder are coming back home with some momentum on their side and they have looked so good in their home games all season. They were 33-8 on their home court this year and they are still the number 1 seed in the West with the great season they put together. The Mavericks played a longer series in the 1st round and that is starting to catch up with them now as their star players like Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving have disappeared over the last 2 games in this series. The Thunder already found themselves down in this series when they were in Dallas but they dug in deep to even the series in game 4 and they are going to bring their best effort in this home game to ensure they don't go back to Dallas down in the series but facing elimination this time. The best way to place a bet here is on the Thunder to cover the spread in this game.

Mavericks Thunder Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Wednesday, May 15, 2024 (9:30 pm ET start time) is Thunder 114 Mavericks 106.

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Dallas Mavericks: 30-16 ATS in road games. 9-2 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite. 23-14 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread. 7-1 UNDER when the total is 210 to 219.5. 17-8 UNDER after allowing 105 points or less. 6-3 UNDER after a combined score of 205 points or less. 

Oklahoma City Thunder: 9-14 ATS when tied in a playoff series. 14-5 UNDER as a # 1 seed in the playoffs. 21-5 UNDER off a road win. 6-0 UNDER off an upset win as a road underdog. 19-9 UNDER after allowing 105 points or less. 26-17 UNDER after playing a road game. 

Dallas Mavericks:  M. Kleber (PF) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. O. Prosper (PF) Out Indefinitely - Ankle. G. Brown III (SF) Out indefinitely - Personal.

Oklahoma City Thunder:  None.

“I think there’s a focus on us. When we both drive it, they collapse the paint, almost five guys. So I think that’s been difficult for us. We’ve just got to find open teammates.” - Luka Doncic after their loss against the OKC Thunder in game 4 of this series on Monday.

“There’s nothing comfortable about playoff games. I thought our ability just to endure the early punches, and just not able to get back in the game for a long time, our ability to endure that was big time. In the fourth, the offense turned for us.” - Mark Daigneault after his team’s win against the Mavericks in game 4 of this series on Monday.

PG Luka Doncic

SG Kyrie Irving

SF Derrick Jones Jr.

PF P.J. Washington 

C Daniel Gafford

PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

SG Josh Giddey

SF Luguentz Dort

PF Jalen Williams

C Chet Holmgren

PPG: L. Doncic (33.9)

APG: L. Doncic (9.8)

Reb/G: L. Doncic (9.2)

PPG: S. Gilgeous-Alexander (30.1)

APG: S. Gilgeous-Alexander (6.2)

Reb/G: C. Holmgren (7.9)

Coaches:

Dallas Mavericks: Jason Kidd (3rd season)

Oklahoma City Thunder: Mark Daigneault (4th season)