Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/07/2024

Game Time: 9:30 pm ET, Tuesday, May 7, 2024

Venue:  Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK 

Where to Watch:  TNT, MAX

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Mavericks +3.5, Thunder -3.5; Over/Under:  217 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Mavericks +3.5, Thunder -3.5; Over/Under:  217 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Mavericks +3.5, Thunder -3.5; Over/Under:  217.5 points

Dallas Mavericks:  50-32 (1st place, Southwest Division)

Oklahoma City Thunder:  57-25 (1st place, Northwest Division)

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Dallas Mavericks:  6-4 last 10

Oklahoma City Thunder:  9-1 last 10

The Mavericks are entering this game with a 50-32 record overall to finish the regular season and they were 25-16 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game winning streak with wins coming against the Los Angeles Clippers in their last 2 games. In their last game against the Clippers in game 6 of that series, Kyrie Irving led the team in points in that game with 30 while Luka Dončić was next on the team with 28 points. Luka Dončić led the team in assists in that game with 13 while Dereck Lively II led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 48.2% from the field, 33.3% from 3-point range, and 66.7% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 117.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 115.6 PPG against them. The Mavericks have an ATS record of 52-36 this season and their O/U record is 39-48-1.

The Thunder are entering this game with a 57-25 record overall to finish the regular season and they were 33-8 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 9 game winning streak with wins coming against the Charlotte Hornets, the Sacramento Kings, the San Antonio Spurs, the Milwaukee Bucks, the Dallas Mavericks, and the New Orleans Pelicans in their last 4 games. In their last game against the Pelicans in game 4 of that series, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams each led the team in points in that game with 24 while Chet Holmgren and Josh Giddey each were next on the team with 14 points. Chet Holmgren led the team in assists in that game with 5 while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team in rebounds with 10. They were 42.7% from the field, 30% from 3-point range, and 62.5% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 120.1 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 112.7 PPG against them. The Thunder have an ATS record of 49-36-1 this season and their O/U record is 45-38-3.

The current betting odds have the Thunder listed as a 3.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 1 of a 7 game series between the 1st seeded Thunder and the 5th seeded Mavericks for Round 2 of the NBA Western Conference playoffs. The Thunder have looked great in their games this season with their 57-25 record overall which was the best in the West and they also had one of the best home records in the NBA too with their 33-8 home record. They looked great in their last series too as they swept the Pelicans in 4 games and they have been really hot now with 9 wins in a row, coming into this 1st game with a ton of momentum on their side. The Mavericks have also been a good road team this season but they struggled to get by the Clippers in the last round, needing 6 games to win the series with Kawhi Leonard missing a majority of the games for the Clippers too. Now the Mavericks are taking on the best team in the West and this was a team that smashed them in the last game of the regular season by over 40 points. No one really played for the Mavericks in that game but even so, the Mavericks have still lost 3 of the 4 games against the Thunder this season, losing both games at OKC too. The Thunder are more rested for this game and they will bring their best effort to ensure they don't have another close game 1 like they did with the Pelicans. The best way to place a bet here is on the Thunder to cover the spread in this game. 

Mavericks Thunder Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Tuesday, May 7, 2024 (9:30 pm ET start time) is Thunder 114 Mavericks 106.

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Dallas Mavericks: 29-15 ATS in road games. 27-17 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent. 10-3 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more. 14-7 UNDER revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more. 15-8 UNDER after allowing 105 points or less. 9-5 UNDER after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more.

Oklahoma City Thunder: 3-13 ATS after allowing 95 points or less 4 straight games. 1-4 ATS when playing with 3 or more days rest. 11-4 UNDER as a # 1 seed in the playoffs. 20-5 UNDER off a road win. 11-6 UNDER after allowing 95 points or less in 4 straight games.

Dallas Mavericks:  M. Kleber (PF) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. T. Hardaway Jr. (SG) Ques Tues - Ankle. O. Prosper (PF) Ques Tues - Ankle. G. Brown III (SF) Out indefinitely - Personal.

Oklahoma City Thunder:  None.

“They’re very important when you look at the culture of our team. Our defense changed when they got here. They’re not going to complain. You don’t have to run a play for them.” - Jason Kidd after his team’s win against the LA Clippers in game 6 of that series on Friday, winning that series 4-2.

“Guys played with great confidence and when we play offense the way we did in the fourth quarter, the shots will go in a little bit more. When we needed to, we really worked together, executed, got great shots. The guys delivered.” - Mark Daigneault after his team’s win against the Pelicans in game 4 of that series on Monday, sweeping the Pelicans 4-0 in that series. 

PG Luka Doncic

SG Kyrie Irving

SF Derrick Jones Jr.

PF P.J. Washington 

C Daniel Gafford

PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

SG Josh Giddey

SF Luguentz Dort

PF Jalen Williams

C Chet Holmgren

PPG: L. Doncic (33.9)

APG: L. Doncic (9.8)

Reb/G: L. Doncic (9.2)

PPG: S. Gilgeous-Alexander (30.1)

APG: S. Gilgeous-Alexander (6.2)

Reb/G: C. Holmgren (7.9)

Coaches:

Dallas Mavericks: Jason Kidd (3rd season)

Oklahoma City Thunder: Mark Daigneault (4th season)