by Chuck Sommers
Sunday, Apr 03, 2022
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
Where to watch: ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Bucks -5
BetMGM: Bucks -5.5
Caesars: Bucks -5
Season record
Mavericks: 48-30
Bucks: 48-29
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Mavs - Bucks preview and analysis
It’s a good thing the Dallas Mavericks close the regular season with two games to go before the playoffs, where they will likely begin postseason play, because this four-game road trip they’re on right now does not look kindly upon them.
After an impressive 120-112 win over the Cleveland Cavaliers on the second night of a back-to-back, the jetlag might have caught up to the Mavs to the tune of a 135-102 loss on Friday to the Washington Wizards and old friend Kristaps Porzingis. The finish line is in sight for Dallas, who will now take on the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks on Sunday, on national TV, with a chance to make a statement.
Not that the Mavs need to make a big statement. They’re already a top-4, at worst, team in the Western Conference unless they keep losing. Dallas is a half-game behind the Golden State Warriors for the No. 3 seed, who were idle when Dallas lost, but will have to finish the regular season without Steph Curry.
So this is prime opportunity for the Mavs to catch up and potentially lock up a first-round series with either the Denver Nuggets or Utah Jazz and avoid the Phoenix Suns in the second round of the playoffs.
But Dallas can’t afford anymore losses like the one Friday, where Luka Doncic goes for 36 points, seven rebounds and six assists and his team still gets run out of the nation’s capital by Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Jalen Brunson was the only other starter to contribute anything offensively with 21 points, but Dallas still only shot 43.6 percent from the floor.
"Sometimes (when you) clinch, there's a time to relax, and I think we relaxed," Mavs coach Jason Kidd said, who was ejected for arguing with an official. "We didn't play very well. Luka scored the ball, but defensively we have to get back to the way things were before the (All-Star) break."
Dallas has won five of its last seven with the two losses, to Minnesota and Washington, by the tune of more than 20 points. When they win, Mavs fans can rejoice and start to party. When they lose, as evidence of the last few weeks, they lose hard. If things get out of hand in a tough environment, against the presumptive MVP and favorite to repeat as NBA champs.
Maybe this could be an NBA Finals preview should things bounce the right way. The Bucks are getting a rested Giannis Antetokounmpo after sitting out Friday’s eye-popping 153-119 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers. Somehow, Robert Covington decided to turn back about 40 clocks and score 43 points on 15 of 24 shooting to run the shorthanded Bucks out of their own building.
Jordan Nwora scored a team-high 28 points for the Bucks, who also rested Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton along with Antetokounmpo.
"They obviously executed at a high level," Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer said. "We didn't."
Hard to do that when your three All-Stars are just camping on the sidelines, but of course that’s the price you pay in order to get them ready for a much more important game. The Bucks are a game behind the Miami Heat and a half-game ahead of the Boston Celtics in the battle for 2-3 in the East.
The Bucks went through a bit of a drought back before the All-Star break but have seemed to right the ship thanks to the Philadelphia 76ers and Chicago Bulls falling off a cliff in recent weeks to swoop in and charge for top seed in the East. Miami will have a strong grip on that spot now that they’re healthy and efficient at 1-5.
Prediction
I have no idea how to play this game because the way the Mavs can play defense, it shows they can hang in a game. But if things fall off the rails and Middleton, Holiday and Giannis go off, it is likely going to be a long afternoon for Dallas. Yet, the way Luka is playing right now, if it’s a close game, I like their chances against Milwaukee. It seems like a long shot, but look for Dorian Finney-Smith to get involved on both ends and disrupt Milwaukee’s tough offensive attack. Mavs by 7
Betting trends
The Mavs are 365-281 ATS since 1997 as a road underdog.
The Mavs are 13-4 ATS this season off a road loss.
The Bucks are 17-22 ATS at home this season.
Projected starting lineup
Mavericks:
PG: Luka Doncic
SG: Jalen Brunson
SF: Reggie Bullock
PF: Dorian Finney-Smith
C: Dwight Powell
Bucks:
PG: Jrue Holiday
SG: Wesley Matthews
SF: Khris Middleton
PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo
C: Brook Lopez
Key injuries
Mavs: Maxi Kleber (questionable)
Bucks: None
Statistical leaders
Mavs:
Points: Luka Doncic -- 28.3
Rebounds: Luka Doncic -- 9.1
Assists: Luka Doncic -- 8.6
Bucks:
Points: Giannis Antetokounmpo -- 30.1
Rebounds: Giannis Antetokounmpo -- 11.7
Assists: Giannis Antetokounmpo -- 6.7
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
