Game Time: 7:00 PM ET, Friday, January 14th, 2022 

Venue:  FedEx Forum, Memphis, Tennessee

Where to Watch:  NBA League Pass

DraftKings:  Spread: NL

BetMGM:  Spread:  NL

VegasInsider:  Spread:  Grizz -3; O/U 218.5

WynnBet: Spread: NL Grizz -2; O/U 218.5

Mavericks: 22-19, 5th place Western Conference

Grizzlies: 29-14, 3rd place Western Conference

A Western Conference battle of hungry opponents.  This game counts on the big board.  The Western Conference has a clear line of separation between the Utah Jazz at #4 and the Dallas Mavericks at #5  the difference is 5 wins.  Everyone above that line: The Phoenix Suns, the Golden State Warriors, the Memphis Grizzlies, and the Utah Jazz represent the class of not just the conference but of the league.  They all do something really really well… The Suns are the most perfectly balanced roster, the Warriors are a juggernaut of winning with a cadre of future Hall of Famers, the Utah Jazz are a great shooting team, and the Memphis Grizzlies have the league’s best young star.  (sorry LaMelo, Ja is better).  The teams beneath that line of delineation… The Mavericks, the Denver Nuggets, the Los Angeles Clippers, and the Los Angeles Lakers are all good teams that seem to be missing something important that would make them a contender.  The Mavericks need health and a legitimate 3rd option (sorry Dorian Finney-Smith), the Nuggets need health above all else, the Los Angeles Clippers need Kawhi to return from injury to even know what they really have, the Los Angeles Lakers need teamwork… honest to goodness, sacrifice for the team, teamwork.  

The Dallas Mavericks have won 7 of their last ten games.  They stumbled into a goofy loss in their last outing against the New York Knicks, stopping a six-game winning streak at six.  It’s no secret the team has two stars PG Luka Doncic and PF/C Kristaps Porzingis that don’t play well together.  To compound that uneasy relationship both Luke and Kristaps have taken turns on the Injured list both for actual injuries and Covid… In fact they rarely seem to play or be available at the same time.  The rest of the team is made up of really fine and swell NBA role players that will give you hustle and hard work… just no clear NBA starters among them. SF Dorian Finney-Smith is the most effective of the supporting cast, but just not elite.  A problem with the roster may be found in the pure usage rate of Luka Doncic… he leads the team in points, assists, and rebounds… because LUKA ALWAYS HAS THE BALL.  Every offensive set is watching Luka dribble around until he decides whether to drive or shoot.  Luka is so amazingly talented that it isn’t surprising that head coach Jason Kidd doesn’t get him to change things up… if it works it works.  Only it doesn’t produce consistent, reliable wins…. Yet?

The Memphis Grizzlies are above the important line in the Western Conference standings and it may be years before they are knocked down.  They are currently on a 10-game WINNING STREAK!  They have won 10 out of their last 10 games.  They are 9-1 ATS during that streak.  The catalyst for the Grizzlies newfound greatness is the already great and constantly improving Ja Morant.  His season right now is drawing comparison to Derrick Rose’s MVP year.  A point guard that does everything well and is an absolute scoring machine.  He is playing so well there is a steady stream of whispers about New Orleans Pelicans’ Zion Williamson being the new Greg Oden.  Memphis last beat the Warriors, the Clippers, the Lakers, and the Detroit Pistons just to name the last few…. All wins, all big wins, all wins against the spread.  Ja doesn’t do it all by himself… he gets plenty of support from PF Jaren Jackson Jr who blocks 2 shots a game and is leading a block party that has the Grizz #1 in the league with 6.3 blocks per game.  They keep doing it without SG Dillon Brooks who is fantastic when he plays but keeps finding his way to the injured list.  Desmond Bane is playing so well in Dillon Brooks absence they should seriously look at moving Dillon before the trade deadline… if just to find a guy who is more reliable come playoff time.

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The Mavs are 22-19 on the season, but 21-20 ATS.  They have logged 13 Overs, 27 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are .500 in road games pitching 11-11 so far.

The Grizz are 29-14 on the season, but 28-15 ATS.  They have notched 22 Overs and 21 Unders.  They are 15-8 in home games.

The Mavericks are 25th in scoring with 105.3 ppg, 24th in rebounds with 43.6 per, and 3rd in AST/TO ratio with 1.9.  They are shooting 20th in FG%, 25th in 3PT%, and 22nd in FT%... those are some severe shooting woes.  Good thing they are 3rd in defense holding opponents to 103.4 ppg.

The Grizzlies are 3rd in scoring with 112.2, 1st in rebounds with 48.3, 5th in AST/TO ratio with 1.9.  They are 16th in FG%, 18th in 3PT%... the weakness is at the free throw line where they are 26th and shoot only 74.8%

Our prediction for Friday, January 14th is….  Grizzlies 115 - Mavericks 105

If you can get the Grizzlies -3 or -2 like I see available now… run, don’t walk… bet the Grizzlies, bet the Grizzlies, bet the Grizzlies.

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Memphis is 14-5 ATS when playing a team with a winning record this season.

The Mavericks are 7-11 ATS as underdogs this season.

Memphis is 23-7 ATS in January Games over the last 3 seasons.

Mavericks: PF Kristaps Porzingis (covid) Probable (should be able to test back in)

Grizzlies: SG Dillon Brooks (ankle) Out

Mavericks: SF Dorian Finney-Smith, PF Maxi Kleber, C Dwight Powell, SG Jalen Brunson, PG Luka Doncic

Grizzlies: SF Kyle Anderson, PF Ziaire Williams, C Jaren Jackson Jr, PG Ja Morant, SG Desmond Bane

Mavericks

Points: Luka Doncic 24.7

Assists: Luka Doncic 8.8

Rebounds: Luka Doncic 8.3

Steals: Dorian Finney-Smith 1.2

Blocks: Kristaps Porzingis 1.7

Grizzlies

Points: Ja Morant 24.9

Assists: Ja Morant 6.7

Rebounds: Steven Adams 9.4

Steals: De’Anthony Melton 1.6

Blocks: Jaren Jackson Jr 2.0

Mavericks: Jason Kidd.

Grizzlies: Taylor Jenkins.