Game Time: 9:00 PM ET, Thursday, May 26th, 2022 

Venue:   Chase Center, San Francisco, California  

Where to Watch:  TNT

DraftKings:  Warriors -7

Fanduel:  Warriors -7

BetMGM: Warriors -6.5

Warriors: 53-29, 3rd place Western Conference, 3-1 in this series.

Mavericks: 52-30, 4th place Western Conference, 1-3 in the series.

An NBA Playoffs Western Conference Finals Game 5.  We were never supposed to be here.  The Golden State Warriors ran over the Dallas Mavericks for 3 straight games AND won ATS in all three games.  Then back at home in a drippy, gross American Airlines arena… The Mavericks got their win in the series.  You could see the veins ripping through Mavericks owner Mark Cuban’s bald spot!  That guy was upset that his arena was falling apart around him on national television.  The American Airlines arena is so outdated that it can’t keep the outside weather off the court… and Mark Cuban is not the type of billionaire that can simply buy himself a new one…. The world has turned in the quarter century since Cuban bought the franchise… He is no longer one of the rich owners in the league… In fact, the Clippers owner could buy Mark Cuban over twice with the money he uses for tipping valets and waiters.    The Golden State Warriors ownership group has 4 Mark Cubans as minority investors!  Still, the win also said the Dallas Mavericks are good.  They are not only good but they have the best young player in the league in PG Luka Doncic. That will not be enough of course…. Still can the Mavericks cover the spread in a loss to Golden State in San Francisco?  What is the great betting opportunity here?

The Golden State Warriors have won 7 of their last ten games.  They went 5-5 ATS during that stretch.  They logged 5 Over and 5 Under.  The Warriors have been on a Western Conference Finals roll.  They won 3 straight games with 3 straight wins ATS.  Everything was looking copacetic… until they ran into a Mavericks team with nothing to lose on their home court.  The NBA playoffs have exposed a flaw in NBA basketball… If everyone in the league focuses on shooting 3-point shots?... Then almost every game will be a blowout.  When teams hit their shots early while the other team misses them?... They get a big lead… which causes the team that is down to shoot wild threes trying to catch up… This is a flaw… It makes for bad basketball.  In fact the best Warriors basketball came when the Warriors sat their starters after waving the white flag.  The Warriors were down by 26 points.  The deep bench backups quickly closed the 4th quarter to single digits… why? Because they charged the hoop and shot the three as the last resort… which is exactly what the starters should have been doing.  In the 119-109 loss the Warriors got just 20 points from PG Stephen Curry, but ended up with 7 double digit scorers.  Every starter had a negative +/- number… while every bench player had a positive +/- number.  That literally means that Head Coach Steve Kerr stuck with the starters for too long.  Or that head coach Steve Kerr didn’t direct his starters to crash the lane and kick if necessary.  A weird thing has happened in this series where SG Jordan Poole has simply not been the second best scorer on the Warriors… that tends to change at home.

The Dallas Mavericks have won 5 of their last ten games… and are clinging to their playoff lives by a thin thread.  They went 5-5 ATS and logged 4 Over and 6 Under.  In the win they had another all-time game from Luka Doncic who registered 30 points, 14 rebounds, and 9 assists. A near triple double… but much better because of those extra rebounds.  SF Dorian Finney-Smith had 23 points, SF Reggie Bullock had 18 points, and SG Jalen Brunson had 15 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists.  Back-up big man Maxi Kleber was once again the surprise key to the win with 13 points, 8 rebounds, 2 assists, AND 3 Big blocked shots.  Kleber was there at the end when the Warriors were closing in… he blocked the shot that would have dropped a 9 points lead to 7…. And the Mavericks never had to look back.  The Mavericks consistently play hard… they just lose to the Warriors… the thing about playing hard though is that occasionally you trap a better team and get a win.  They will not get that win in San Francisco.  Will they cover the big spread though?

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The Mavericks are 61-38 on the season, but 56-42-1 ATS.  They have logged 38 Overs, 60 Under, and 1 Push.  They are 26-24 on the road.

The Warriors are 63-33 on the season, but 49-44-4 ATS.  They have notched 44 Over, 51 Under, and 2 Push.  They are 38-10 in home games.

The Mavericks are 24th in scoring with 108.0 points per game, 24th in rebounds with 43.0 per game, and 9th in AST/TO ratio with 1.9. On defense they rank 2nd while holding opponents to 104.7 ppg.

The Warriors are 15th in scoring with 111.0 points per game, 7th in rebounds with 45.5 per game, and 12th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8.  On defense they rank 3rd while holding opponents to 105.5 ppg.  

 

Our prediction for Thursday, May 26th is…..  Warriors 114 - Mavericks 103

The Warriors will blow out the Mavericks at home.  That is the only conclusion that a 38-10 home record would point to…. The Warriors also have the best home shooting percentage.  

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Dallas is 370-286 as a road underdog since 1996.

Golden State is 5-1 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half.

Golden State is 31-23 ATS versus Dallas since 1996.

Mavericks: SF Luka Doncic (illness) Probable ** SG Tim Hardaway (foot) Out

Warriors: SF Otto Porter Jr (foot) Out ** SG Andre Igoudala (neck) Out ** PG Gary Payton II (elbow) Out ** C James Wiseman (knee) Out

Mavericks: SF Dorian Finney-Smith, SF Reggie Bullock, C Dwight Powell, SG Jalen Brunson, PG Luka Doncic

Warriors: SF Klay Thompson, SF Andrew Wiggins, C Draymond Green, SG Jordan Poole, PG Stephen Curry

Warriors: Steve “The Ringmaster” Kerr

Mavericks: Jason “Supervillian” Kidd