Game Time: 9:00 PM ET, Wednesday, May 17th, 2022 

Venue:   Chase Center, San Francisco, California  

Where to Watch:  TNT

DraftKings:  Warriors -5; O/U 214.5

Fanduel:  Warriors -5; O/U 214.5

BetMGM: Warriors -4.5; O/U 214.5

Mavericks: 52-30, 4th place Western Conference

Warriors: 53-29, 3rd place Western Conference

An NBA Western Conference Game 1!  It’s finally here… and a great and rare thing has happened during these playoffs…. In the Western Conference Playoffs BOTH the #1 Seed Phoenix Suns and the #2 Seed Memphis Grizzlies have been eliminated.  A year in which BOTH the top 2 regular season teams do not make the Conference Finals is rarer than a 4-leaf clover.  Basketball purists will tell you that neither of the top two teams from the regular season should have been top two teams…. They were a #3 Seed only because the Warriors suffered so many injuries that their 3 Hall of Famers (that we know of) only played 11 regular season minutes together.  Also the Clippers were missing their top-three players to injury and still almost made the playoffs… Also, Laker's PF Anthony Davis was out with an injury… Also the Denver Nuggets were missing their #2 and #3 guys to injury, leaving MVP C Nikola Jokic without a team around him!  There are so many reasons!  The facts though are this… The Dallas Mavericks have ridden PG Luka Doncic to the Western Conference Finals… and the Golden State Warriors are and were a dynasty waiting for health and getting it at just the right time.  So who do we put our money on?... What is the Great Betting Opportunity?  Let’s check the numbers.

The Dallas Mavericks have won 6 of their last 10 games.  They went 7-3 ATS during that stretch. Logging 3 Overs and 7 Unders.  The Mavericks beat the Phoenix Suns in dramatic fashion even if Game 7 was the least bit dramatic.  The last win over the Suns was 123-90… It was a shocking blowout where the final score seems closer than it actually was!... PG Luka Doncic got 35 points, 10 rebounds and 4 assists… in 30 minutes of play… If Luka was forced to play a full 40+ minutes he could have easily gotten 50 points in a triple double.  Easily.  And that is how it has gone for the Mavericks.  Luka is playing like LeBron did 12 years ago… he is everywhere affecting every aspect of the game.  The defense has no answer for Luka as he out-nimbles big guys and out-muscles little guys. Luka is the real deal… and if Golden State doesn't treat Luka like Boston treated Ginnis… then Golden State is in for a rough series.  The Mavs also got 30 points from G Spencer Dinwiddie and 24 points from G Jalen Brunson… That is the bugaboo… If the Warriors can shut down the Mavs secondary players they can beat the Mavs.  An overlooked part of the Mavericks is the unheralded big men C Dwight Powell, Pf Maxi Kleber and PF Davis Bertans… They aren’t stars or necessarily impactful… but they specialize.  Dwight can play defense and get rebounds… Maxi can block shots and score… Davis Bertans is a great shooter who is lost on defense.  The mix of the three is interesting to say the leats.

The Golden State Warriors have won 7 of their last 10 games.  They went 4- ATS during that stretch.  6 Overs and 4 Unders.  The Warriors beat the Memphis Grizzlies in 6 games and have spent the last 5 days resting.  In their 110-96 win over the Grizzlies the Warriors got 30 points from SG Klay Thompson, 29 points from PG Stephen Curry, and 18 points from SF Andrew Wiggins.  Golden State has been a strong defensive team all season… Luka Doncic is a different animal.  The Warriors plan will be “Luka meet Draymond Green for 10 minutes… Luka meet Andrew Wiggins for ten minutes… Luka meet Otto Porter Jr for ten minutes.”  Then the cycle will repeat. The Warriors need that rotation to work… and they need guys like SG Jordan Poole and C Kevon Looney, and even SG Klay Thompson to handle the “other guys” on the Mavs. If Luka scores 50+ but his “back-up dancers” don’t pull through the Mavs will lose to the Warriors…. If Luka scores 35+ a game, but gets a full boat of production around him… The Warriors will lose.  Also the Warriors can not and do not expect to hold Luka to less that 35 a game on the series.  The flip side of this coin is that the Warriors are a great scoring and shooting team on their own merits.  There is a scenario where the Warriors simply run the Mavs out of the gym despite what Luka does on offense.

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Dallas is 60-35 on the season, but 55-39-1 ATS.  They have logged 36 Overs, 58 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are 26-22 in road games.

Golden State is 60-32 on the season, but 46-43-1 ATS.  They have notched 42 Overs, 49 Unders, and 2 Push.  They are 36-10 in  home games.  

The Mavericks are 24th in scoring with 108.0 ppg, 24th in rebounds with 43.0 per game, and 9th in AST/TO ratio with 1.9.  On defense they rank 2nd while holding teams to 104.7 ppg.

The Warriors are 15th in scoring with 111.0 ppg, 7th in rebounds with 45.5 per game, and 12th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8.  On defense they rank 3rd while holding opponents to 105.5 ppg.

 

Our prediction for Wednesday, May 18th is…..  Warriors 115 - Mavericks 108

The Warriors are on their home floor against a Mavs team that has dropped the first game of each series they have played so far.  Bet on the Warriors to win ATS until the Mavs return home and make adjustments.  This is also a bet for the Over.

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The Warriors are 59-43 ATS versus the Mavericks since 1996.

Dallas is 4-1 ATS versus Golden State at Golden State the last 3 seasons.

Dallas is 370-284 as a road underdog since 1996.

Golden State is 43-23 when revenging a road loss vs an opponent the last 3 seasons.

Mavs: SG Tim Hardaway Jr (foot) Out ** 

Warriors: PG Gary Payton II (elbow) Out ** C James Wiseman (knee) Out

Mavs: SF Dorian Finney-Smith, SF Reggie Bullock, C Dwight Powell, Sg Jalen Brunson, PG Luka Doncic

Warriors: SF Klay Thompson, PF Andrew Wiggins, C Draymond Green, SG Jordan Poole, PG Stephen Curry

Mavericks: Jason “Supervillan” Kidd

Warriors: Steve “The Ringmaster” Kerr