Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets Prediction, Preview and Odds - 12/18/2023

Game Time: 9:00 pm ET, Monday, December 18, 2023

Venue:  Ball Arena, Denver, CO

Where to Watch:  NBA TV

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Mavericks +7.5, Nuggets -7.5; Over/Under:  238.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Mavericks +7.5, Nuggets -7.5; Over/Under:  238.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Mavericks +7, Nuggets -7; Over/Under:  238.5 points

Dallas Mavericks:  16-9 (1st place, Southwest Division)

Denver Nuggets:  17-10 (3rd place, Northwest Division)

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Dallas Mavericks:  6-4 last 10

Denver Nuggets:  6-4 last 10

The Mavericks are entering this game with a 16-9 record overall and they are 9-4 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Portland Trail Blazers in their last game. Luka Dončić led the team in points in that game with 40 while Tim Hardaway Jr. was next on the team with 25 points. Luka Dončić led the team in assists in that game with 10 while Luka Dončić led the team in rebounds with 12. They were 49.5% from the field, 34% from 3-point range, and 90.5% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 119.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 117.1 PPG against them. The Mavericks have an ATS record of 14-11 this season and their O/U record is 18-7.

The Nuggets are entering this game with a 17-10 record overall and they are 10-2 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Oklahoma City Thunder in their last game. Nikola Jokić led the team in points in that game with 24 while Michael Porter Jr. was next on the team with 20 points. Nikola Jokić led the team in assists in that game with 12 while Michael Porter Jr. led the team in rebounds with 11. They were 44.7% from the field, 37.5% from 3-point range, and 87.5% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 114.7 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 110.8 PPG against them. The Nuggets have an ATS record of 11-15-1 this season and their O/U record is 11-16.

The current betting odds have the Nuggets listed as a 7.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Nuggets have looked good this season with their 17-10 record overall but lately they haven't looked as good in their games. They have been losing more games over the last 2 weeks and they just lost their last one at home to the Thunder too. They have been slipping down the standings in not only the West but in their own division as they are now in 3rd place behind the Timberwolves and the Thunder. Meanwhile, the Mavericks have also looked great this season with their 16-9 record overall and they have looked really good in their games lately despite missing some key starters. They are 9-4 in their road games this season but their injuries are going to start catching up to them here, especially since they have been beating up on a ton of bad teams lately. The Nuggets haven't been at their best lately but they will be looking to bounce back on their home court, especially after losing there to the Thunder in their last game. The best way to place a bet here is on the Nuggets to cover the spread in this game. 

Mavericks Nuggets Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Monday, December 18, 2023 (9:00 pm ET start time) is Nuggets 127 Mavericks 112.

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Dallas Mavericks: 10-4 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. 34-20 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent. 18-7 OVER in all games. 10-3 OVER in road games. 7-1 OVER revenging a road loss vs opponent. 

Denver Nuggets: 4-10 ATS after 1 or more consecutive unders. 4-10 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread. 19-8 OVER off a home loss. 52-28 OVER off a close home loss by 3 points or less. 27-20 OVER as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. 

Dallas Mavericks:  D. Lively II (C) Ques Mon - Ankle. R. Holmes (PF) Ques Mon - Illness. K. Irving (PG) Out indefinitely - Heel. M. Kleber (PF) Late Dec - Toe. J. Green (SG) Late Dec - Elbow.

Denver Nuggets:  K. Caldwell-Pope (SG) Ques Mon - Concussion. V. Cancar (SF) Out indefinitely - Knee.

“We have a lot of character in that locker room, a lot of trust. When you have a leader like that, it’s easy to follow.” - Jason Kidd after his team’s win against the Trail Blazers in their game on Saturday.

“I’m disappointed. That’s a game we should have won. If we take care of the ball and we get a few stops, we win that game.” - Michael Malone after his team’s loss against the Thunder in their game on Saturday.

PG Luka Doncic

SG Tim Hardaway Jr.

SF Derrick Jones Jr.

PF Grant Williams

C Dereck Lively II

PG Jamal Murray

SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

SF Michael Porter Jr.

PF Aaron Gordon

C Nikola Jokic

PPG: L. Doncic (32.7)

APG: L. Doncic (9.1)

Reb/G: L. Doncic (8.3)

PPG: N. Jokic (27)

APG: N. Jokic (9.5)

Reb/G: N. Jokic (12.4)

Coaches:

Dallas Mavericks: Jason Kidd (3rd season)

Denver Nuggets: Michael Malone (9th season)