by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Dec 23, 2025
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Thursday, December 25, 2025
Venue: Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD
Where to Watch: Netflix
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Cowboys -7, Commanders +7; Over/Under: 50.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Cowboys -7, Commanders +7; Over/Under: 51 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Cowboys -7, Commanders +7; Over/Under: 50.5 points
Season Record
Dallas Cowboys: 6-8-1 (2nd place, NFC East)
Washington Commanders: 4-11 (3rd place, NFC East)
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Recent Form
Dallas Cowboys: lost their last game at home against the Los Angeles Chargers 34-17.
Washington Commanders: lost their last game at home against the Philadelphia Eagles 29-18.
Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders Preview and Analysis
The Cowboys are entering this game with a 6-8-1 record overall and they have a 3-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 4-3-1 in their home games, 2-5 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Los Angeles Chargers 34-17. Dak Prescott was the starting QB and he completed 21/30 passes for 244 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Javonte Williams led the team in rushing yards with 34. George Pickens led the receivers with 130 receiving yards on 7 receptions and 1 TD. Shavon Revel Jr. led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
The Commanders are entering this game with a 4-11 record overall and they have a 2-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 2-5 in their home games, 2-5 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Philadelphia Eagles 29-18. Marcus Mariota was the starting QB and he completed 7/14 passes for 95 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Chris Rodriguez Jr. led the team in rushing yards with 63 and 1 TD. Terry McLaurin led the receivers with 53 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Jonathan Jones led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Bobby Wagner and Jacob Martin each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Cowboys vs Commanders Prediction
The current betting odds have the Cowboys listed as a 7 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Cowboys haven't looked good in their games this season with their 6-8-1 record overall, but that record has them right near the top of the NFC East in a weaker division. They have already been eliminated from playoff contention though, and they have been a terrible road team this year with their 2-5 road record. Meanwhile, the Commanders have looked terrible in their games this season with their 4-11 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the NFC East. They haven't looked great on their home field either with their 2-5 home record this season. The Commanders are off a 29-18 loss to the Eagles in their last one and this is a team that is just trying to get to the finish line right now. They have been dealing with a ton of injuries all season and they have already shut down Jayden Daniels for the rest of the year. They really have nothing left to play for, and they haven't even looked that good when they have tried lately. The Cowboys haven't looked any better lately, off a 34-17 loss to the Chargers at home in their last one, and their playoff hopes were killed last week when the Eagles beat the Commanders. The Cowboys have had one of the worst defenses in the NFL this season too, but they have also had one of the best offenses and even though they were eliminated last week, they are going to come out with some fight since they can still finish right at .500. The Cowboys haven't looked good lately, but they have a lot more talent than the Commanders in their current form so look for the Cowboys to bounce back and get a feel good win. The best way to place a bet here is on the Cowboys to cover the spread in this game.
Cowboys Commanders Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Thursday, December 25, 2025 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Cowboys 38 Commanders 17.
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NFL Betting Trends
Dallas Cowboys: 11-4 ATS versus division opponents. 9-2 ATS vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game. 8-0 ATS vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season. 31-18 OVER in all games. 11-5 OVER when playing against a team with a losing record.
Washington Commanders: 2-7 ATS as a home underdog. 4-8 ATS revenging a loss against an opponent. 6-12 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game. 15-3 OVER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 13-6 OVER vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game.
Key Injuries
Dallas Cowboys: K. Turpin (WR) Injured - Shoulder. D. Overshown (LB) Injured - Concussion. T. Bass (OG) Injured - Thumb. R. Flournoy (WR) Injured - Knee. T. Booker (OG) Injured - Ankle. Q. Williams (DL) Injured - Neck. P. Turner (DL) Injured - Ribs. J. Butler (CB) Injured - Knee. D. Wilson (S) Injured - Hip. J. Williams (RB) Injured - Neck. C. Carson (CB) Injured - Hamstring. N. Thomas (OT) Injured - Shoulder. T. Guyton (OT) Injured - Ankle. P. Mafah (RB) Injured - Shoulder.
Washington Commanders: N. Bellore (LB) Injured - Concussion. M. Mariota (QB) Injured - Hand. D. Payne (DL) Injured - Back. J. Kinlaw (DL) Injured - NIR - Rest. J. Lane (WR) Injured - Ankle. B. Wagner (LB) Injured - Knee. L. Tunsil (OT) Injured - Oblique. G. Fant (OT) Injured - Knee. E. Goldman (DL) Injured - Concussion. C. Yankoff (TE) Injured - Ankle. J. Daniels (QB) Injured - Elbow.
Notable Quotes
“They played a better full game than us. The first half, we’re rolling, and we didn’t get the stop on defense. The second half, we got the stops on defense and we weren’t doing much.” - Dak Prescott after their loss against the LA Chargers in their last game.
“It certainly feels terrible to hear that record.” - Dan Quinn after his team’s loss against the Eagles in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Dallas Cowboys
WR Pickens, George
WR Lamb, CeeDee
WR Flournoy, Ryan
TE Ferguson, Jake
QB Prescott, Dak
RB Williams, Javonte
FB Luepke, Hunter
Washington Commanders
WR McLaurin, Terry
WR Burks, Treylon
WR Samuel, Deebo
TE Bates, John
QB Mariota, Marcus
RB Rodriguez Jr., Chris
Statistical Leaders
Dallas Cowboys
Passing: Dak Prescott (4,175)
Rushing: Javonte Williams (1,147)
Receiving: George Pickens (1,342)
Touchdowns: Javonte Williams (12)
Washington Commanders
Passing: Marcus Mariota (1,695)
Rushing: Jacory Croskey-Merritt (671)
Receiving: Deebo Samuel (639)
Touchdowns: Deebo Samuel (6)
Coaches:
Dallas Cowboys: Brian Schottenheimer (1st season)
Washington Commanders: Dan Quinn (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
