by Rod Pearson
Thursday, Jan 04, 2024
Game Time: 4:25 pm ET, Sunday, January 7, 2024
Venue: FedEx Field, North Englewood, MD
Where to Watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Cowboys -13, Commanders +13; Over/Under: 46 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Cowboys -13, Commanders +13; Over/Under: 46 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Cowboys -13, Commanders +13; Over/Under: 46 points
Season Record
Dallas Cowboys: 11-5 (1st place, NFC East)
Washington Commanders: 4-12 (4th place, NFC East)
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Recent Form
Dallas Cowboys: won their last game at home against the Detroit Lions 20-19.
Washington Commanders: lost their last game at home against the San Francisco 49ers 27-10.
Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders Preview and Analysis
The Cowboys are entering this game with an 11-5 record overall and they have a 4-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 8-0 in their home games, 3-5 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Detroit Lions 20-19. Dak Prescott was the starting QB and he completed 26/38 passes for 345 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Tony Pollard led the team in rushing yards with 49. CeeDee Lamb led the receivers with 227 receiving yards on 13 receptions and 1 TD. Markquese Bell led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Dorance Armstrong led the defense in sacks with 1. Donovan Wilson and Jourdan Lewis each came away with 1 interception for them in that game.
The Commanders are entering this game with a 4-12 record overall and they have a 0-5 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-6 in their home games, 3-6 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the San Francisco 49ers 27-10. Sam Howell was the starting QB and he completed 17/28 passes for 169 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Brian Robinson Jr. led the team in rushing yards with 44. Terry McLaurin led the receivers with 61 receiving yards on 4 receptions and 1 TD. Cody Barton led the defense in that game with 9 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack in that one. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.
Cowboys vs Commanders Prediction
The current betting odds have the Cowboys listed as a 13 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Cowboys have looked great in their games this season with their 11-5 record overall which has already secured a playoff spot but they still have something to play for in this game. The NFC East is still up for grabs right now and after the Eagles loss against the Cardinals last week, the Cowboys now control their own destiny here as they win the division with a win in this game. The Cowboys would love to rest starters here but this game is too important for them as they would much rather win the division and play their 1st playoff game at home than risk losing this game and going on the road in the Wild Card Round. Meanwhile, the Commanders have looked terrible in their games this season with their 4-12 record overall which also has them eliminated from playoff contention. They have nothing to play for in this game as their season has been over for a while now and they have also looked terrible in their games lately. They just lost to the 49ers last week by 17 points and this game is not going to be any different considering how the Cowboys already blew them out at home earlier this season. The best way to place a bet here is on the Cowboys to cover the spread in this game.
Cowboys Commanders Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, January 7, 2024 (4:25 pm ET start time) is Cowboys 34 Commanders 13.
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NFL Betting Trends
Dallas Cowboys: 33-20 ATS in all games. 27-12 ATS as a favorite. 13-4 ATS versus division opponents. 13-4 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread. 10-4 UNDER as a road favorite. 11-5 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5. 9-2 UNDER after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game.
Washington Commanders: 7-15 ATS in home games. 5-10 ATS versus division opponents. 2-11 ATS revenging a blowout loss against an opponent by 28 points or more. 11-4 UNDER as a home underdog. 7-1 UNDER in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5. 9-3 UNDER after a loss by 14 or more points.
Key Injuries
Dallas Cowboys: H. Luepke (RB) Prob Sun - Thigh. D. Armstrong (DE) Ques Sun - Ankle. J. Thomas (S) Ques Sun - Illness. T. Smith (OL) Ques Sun - Foot. M. Hooker (S) Ques Sun - Ankle. V. Fehoko Jr. (DE) Prob Sun - Knee. D. Vaughn (RB) Out indefinitely - Ankle. M. Waletzko (OT) Ques Sun - Shoulder. J. Hankins (DT) Ques Sun - Foot. R. Dowdle (RB) Ques Sun - Ankle. S. McKeon (TE) Out indefinitely - Ankle. L. Vander Esch (LB) I-R - Neck. C. Goodwin (CB) I-R - Pectoral. T. Diggs (CB) I-R - Knee. J. Stephens Jr. (WR) I-R - Knee. D. Durden (WR) I-R - Knee. D. Overshown (LB) I-R - Knee. J. Ball (OT) I-R - Hip.
Washington Commanders: C. Toohill (DE) Prob Sun - Shoulder. C. Samuel (WR) Ques Sun - Hamstring. K. Curl (S) Prob Sun - Quadricep. J. Ridgeway (DT) Ques Sun - Foot. J. Martin (DB) Ques Sun - Chest. C. Holmes (CB) Ques Sun - Concussion. T. Castro-Fields (CB) Ques Sun - Shoulder. J. Allen (DT) Ques Sun - Knee. B. St-Juste (CB) Ques Sun - Concussion. A. Wylie (G) Ques Sun - Elbow. J. Brissett (QB) Ques Sun - Hamstring. K. Fuller (CB) Ques Sun - Knee. T. Larsen (C) I-R - Knee. P. Butler (S) I-R - Wrist. C. Leno Jr. (OT) I-R - Calf. C. Rodriguez Jr. (RB) I-R - Ankle. C. Hodges (TE) I-R - Back. J. Davis (LB) I-R - Shoulder. E. Obada (DE) Out indefinitely - Leg. R. Stromberg (C) Out indefinitely - Knee. J. Reaves (S) I-R - Knee. D. Forrest (S) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. D. Milne (WR) Out indefinitely - Groin. B. Dillon (TE) I-R - Undisclosed. B. Daniels (OL) I-R - Shoulder. C. Brooks (DT) I-R - Undisclosed. D. Bada (DT) I-R - Tricep. A. Rogers (TE) I-R - Achilles.
Notable Quotes
“Very stressful. But definitely I know my defense had us, and they held it down.” - CeeDee Lamb after their win against the Lions in their last game.
"I thought Sam had some really good moments. Obviously there were a couple throws I promise you he would wish he had back, but he did a lot of good things.” - Ron Rivera after his team’s loss against the 49ers in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Dallas Cowboys
WR Gallup, Michael
WR Cooks, Brandin
WR Lamb, CeeDee
TE Ferguson, Jake
QB Prescott, Dak
RB Pollard, Tony
FB Luepke, Hunter
Washington Commanders
WR McLaurin, Terry
WR Dotson, Jahan
WR Samuel, Curtis
TE Thomas, Logan
QB Howell, Sam
RB Robinson Jr., Brian
FB Armah, Alex
Statistical Leaders
Dallas Cowboys
Passing: D. Prescott (4237)
Rushing: T. Pollard (935)
Receiving: C. Lamb (1651)
Touchdowns: C. Lamb (12)
Washington Commanders
Passing: S. Howell (3793)
Rushing: B. Robinson (708)
Receiving: T. McLaurin (946)
Touchdowns: B. Robinson (9)
Coaches:
Dallas Cowboys: Mike McCarthy (4th season)
Washington Commanders: Ron Rivera (4th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
