Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots Prediction, Preview and Odds - 10/17/2021

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Game Time: 4:25 pm ET, Sunday, October 17, 2021
Venue:  Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Where to Watch:  CBS


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Cowboys -4, Patriots +4; Over/Under:  50.5 points
Bet365:  Point Spread:  Cowboys -4, Patriots +4; Over/Under:  50.5 points
BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Cowboys -4, Patriots +4; Over/Under:  50 points

Season Record

Dallas Cowboys:  4-1 (1st place, NFC East)
New England Patriots:  2-3 (2nd place, AFC East)
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Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots Preview and Analysis

Recent Form
Dallas Cowboys:  won at home on Oct. 10 against the New York Giants 44-20.
New England Patriots:  won on the road on Oct. 10 against the Houston Texans 25-22.

Dallas Cowboys Analysis

The Cowboys are coming into this game with a 4-1 record overall and they are 1-1 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. After losing their season opener to the Super Bowl Champions Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday night football, they have won their last 4 games straight and have become the clear favorite to win the NFC East. They have scored over 20 points in every game this season ramping that up to over 35 points scored in each of their last 3. They are coming off of a blowout win over the Giants 44-20 in a game that they led the entire time as the Giants faced multiple injuries to their starters in that one. Dak Prescott had a good game as he completed 22/32 passes for 302 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. Ezekiel Elliott had a very nice day as he led the team in rushing with 110 yards and 1 touchdown on 21 carries while Tony Pollard was right behind with 75 rushing yards on 14 carries. CeeDee Lamb led the receivers with 84 yards and 1 touchdown on 4 receptions while Dalton Schultz was right behind him with 79 yards on 6 receptions. Amari Cooper also had 3 catches for 60 yards and 1 TD. Micah Parsons led the defense with 6 solo tackles and 2 assisted ones while Leighton Vander Esch was right behind with 4 solo tackles and 1 assisted one. No one on the defense had a sack in that game but Anthony Brown and Trevon Diggs both had 1 interception each. Diggs now leads the league in interceptions this season with 6 in just 5 games. They have scored 170 points in their first 5 games averaging 34 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 117 points against them allowing 23.4 PPG. Their offense is averaging 436.6 YPG while their defense is allowing 390.4 YPG.

New England Patriots Analysis

The Patriots are coming into this game with a 2-3 record overall and they are 0-3 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. After losing 2 games straight they have stopped the bleeding a bit with a win over the Texans in their last game. They won that game 25-22 in a game where they were trailing from the start and had to make a late 4th quarter comeback just to win that game. Mac Jones played alright in that game as he completed 23/30 passes for 231 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Damien Harris led the team in rushing with 58 yards and 1 touchdown on 14 carries but they did not really have much of a run game in that one and had to abandon it once they fell too far behind. Hunter Henry led the receivers with 75 yards and 1 touchdown on 6 receptions while Jakobi Meyers had 56 yards on 4 receptions in what was a quiet day for the receiving corps. Kyle Duggar led the defense with 5 solo tackles and 5 assisted ones while Adrian Phillips was right behind him with 4 solo tackles and 3 assisted ones. J.C Jackson and Dont'a Hightower both played well as well with 4 solo tackles and 1assisted one each in that game. Matthew Judon led the defense in sacks with 2 while Jamie Collins also had 1 in that game but no one on the defense was able to come up with an interception. They have scored 96 points in their first 5 games averaging 19.2 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 92 points against them allowing 18.4 PPG. Their offense is averaging 319.8 YPG while their defense is allowing 317.6 YPG.


Cowboys vs Patriots Prediction

The Cowboys are coming into this game as a 4 point favorite with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook. They have been moving the ball really well this year scoring a lot of points as their offense looks great this season. They have scored over 35 points in each of their last 3 games, scoring over 40 points in 2 of those 3. The Patriots have not been scoring a lot of points or gaining a lot of yards on offense this year as they have scored more than 20 points in just 1 of their last 3 games. Their defense has been playing well not allowing a lot of points or yards but they have not really faced any good offense this year in any of their games. The only one was the Bucs, they scored just 19 points but there was a lot of rain in that game which hindered a lot of big plays and the Pats had a major advantage when your head coach coached the opposing quarterback for 20 years. The Cowboys have a very potent offense and they are going to overpower New England in this game blowing out yet another team on their schedule as they have blown out their last 3 opponents all by more than a touchdown, 2 of them by double digits. The best bet to place in this game is on the Cowboys to cover the spread here.
Cowboys Patriots Prediction:  Our NFL Pick for Sunday, October 17, 2021 (4:25 pm ET start time) is Cowboys 41 Patriots 20.
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NFL Betting Trends

Dallas Cowboys: 236-243 ATS in all games. 146-160 ATS as a favorite. 52-60 ATS as a road favorite. 110-125 ATS in road games. 164-170 ATS in games played on turf.
New England Patriots: 48-27 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 279-220 ATS in all games. 92-53 ATS as an underdog. 26-9 ATS as a home underdog. 140-111 ATS in home games. 

Key Injuries

Dallas Cowboys:  D. Thompson (S) Ques Sun - Hamstring injury. D. Wilson (S) Ques Sun - Groin injury. D. Armstrong (DE) Ques Sun - Ankle injury.
New England Patriots:  R. Perkins (LB) Ques Sun - Shoulder injury. J. Mills (CB) Ques Sun - Hamstring injury. S. Mason (OL) Ques Sun - Abdominal injury.

Players to Watch

Dallas Cowboys: Ezekiel Elliot is one player to watch in this matchup. He leads his team in rushing yards and in touchdowns scored this season. He is coming off of a game where he had over 100 yards rushing and he will be looking to continue that here. He has alway been a key piece in this offense since he was drafted so look for him to keep having good games and finding the end zone for scores.
New England Patriots: Mac Jones is one player to watch in this contest. He is the starting QB and leads his team in passing yards. It is his rookie season and he led his team to a big comeback victory on the road in their last game. He is still developing and getting better every week so look for to keep improving in this game and getting better as he learns from his mistakes.

Notable Quotes

"He's so dang focused in everything he does. His disposition never changes, his attitude, his energy. I thought he played very well, particularly after those two giveaways." - Mike McCarthy on the way Dak Prescott played in their win over the Giants in their last game.
"Mac has been good for us all year in terms of his leadership and resilience. We are counting on him to do the right thing, and he's doing it on a high level." - Bill Belichick on his rookie quarterback’s performance this season.

Starting Lineups

Dallas Cowboys
WR Cooper, Amari 
WR Wilson, Cedrick 
WR Lamb, CeeDee 
TE Jarwin, Blake 
QB Prescott, Dak 
RB Elliott, Ezekiel 
New England Patriots
WR Agholor, Nelson 
WR Meyers, Jakobi 
TE Smith, Jonnu 
QB Jones, Mac 
RB Harris, Damien 
FB Johnson, Jakob 

Statistical Leaders

Dallas Cowboys
Passing: D. Prescott (1368)
Rushing: E. Elliott (452)
Receiving: C. Lamb (348)
Touchdowns: E. Elliott (5)
Sacks: M. Parsons (2.5)
Tackles: A. Brown (23)
New England Patriots
Passing: M. Jones (1243)
Rushing: D. Harris (230)
Receiving: J. Meyers (302)
Touchdowns: D. Harris (2)
Sacks: M. Judon (6.5)
Tackles: K. Dugger (20)
Dallas Cowboys: Mike McCarthy (2nd season)
New England Patriots: Bill Belichick (22nd season)

Weather Forecast

65 degrees F mostly sunny, 62% humidity, 0% chance of rain, up to 11 mph wind speeds W.

Amedeus Mastrangelo

About the Author:

Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.

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