by Rod Pearson
Friday, Dec 22, 2023
Game Time: 4:25 pm ET, Sunday, December 24, 2023
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Where to Watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Cowboys +1, Dolphins -1; Over/Under: 50 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Cowboys +1, Dolphins -1; Over/Under: 50 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Cowboys +1, Dolphins -1; Over/Under: 49.5 points
Season Record
Dallas Cowboys: 10-4 (1st place, NFC East)
Miami Dolphins: 10-4 (1st place, AFC East)
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Recent Form
Dallas Cowboys: lost their last game on the road against the Buffalo Bills 31-10.
Miami Dolphins: won their last game at home against the New York Jets 30-0.
Dallas Cowboys vs Miami Dolphins Preview and Analysis
The Cowboys are entering this game with a 10-4 record overall and they have a 4-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 7-0 in their home games, 3-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Buffalo Bills 31-10. Dak Prescott was the starting QB and he completed 21/34 passes for 134 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Tony Pollard led the team in rushing yards with 52. CeeDee Lamb led the receivers with 53 receiving yards on 7 receptions. Damone Clark led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 4 assisted tackles while Mazi Smith led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.
The Dolphins are entering this game with a 10-4 record overall and they have a 4-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 6-1 in their home games, 4-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the New York Jets 30-0. Tua Tagovailoa was the starting QB and he completed 21/24 passes for 224 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Raheem Mostert led the team in rushing yards with 42 and 2 TDs. Jaylen Waddle led the receivers with 142 receiving yards on 8 receptions and 1 TD. Bradley Chubb led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Bradley Chubb led the defense in sacks with 3. Brandon Jones came away with the only 2 interceptions for them in that game.
Cowboys vs Dolphins Prediction
The current betting odds have the Cowboys listed as a 1 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Cowboys have looked really good this year with their 10-4 record overall but they haven't looked as good in their road games with their 3-4 road record. They just lost last week to the Bills in a blowout and they are on the road again in this game against the Dolphins, but the Cowboys still have one of the best teams in the NFL right now and they will be looking to bounce back in a big way after losing so badly last week. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have also looked really good in their games this season with their 10-4 record overall but the Dolphins have been like the Cowboys in the sense where they both beat up on a lot of bad teams. The Dolphins have looked a lot better in their home games this year with their 6-1 home record, but they have still struggled to win games against teams with winning records which has been a big problem for them over the last year. The Cowboys have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball and after the way they played against the Bills last week, expect a response from the offense and defense here. The best way to place a bet here is on the Cowboys to cover the spread in this game.
Cowboys Dolphins Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, December 24, 2023 (4:25 pm ET start time) is Cowboys 34 Dolphins 31.
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NFL Betting Trends
Dallas Cowboys: 33-18 ATS in all games. 8-1 ATS off a road loss. 8-0 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game. 13-2 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread. 10-2 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3. 16-8 UNDER in road games. 10-5 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5.
Miami Dolphins: 4-8 ATS after allowing 30 or less rushing yards last game. 2-7 ATS after shutting out their last opponent. 1-16 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better. 36-23 UNDER as a home favorite of 3 points or less. 26-10 UNDER against NFC East division opponents. 9-0 UNDER after shutting out their last opponent.
Key Injuries
Dallas Cowboys: T. Smith (OT) Ques Sun - Back. R. Dowdle (RB) Ques Sun - Ankle. M. Waletzko (OT) Ques Sun - Shoulder. V. Fehoko Jr. (DE) Ques Sun - Knee. J. Hankins (DT) Ques Sun - Foot. M. Hooker (S) Ques Sun - Ankle. Z. Martin (G) Ques Sun - Quadricep. S. McKeon (TE) Out indefinitely - Ankle. L. Vander Esch (LB) I-R - Neck. C. Goodwin (CB) I-R - Pectoral. T. Diggs (CB) I-R - Knee. J. Stephens Jr. (WR) I-R - Knee. D. Durden (WR) I-R - Knee. D. Overshown (LB) I-R - Knee. J. Ball (OT) I-R - Hip.
Miami Dolphins: A. Van Ginkel (LB) Ques Sun - Oblique. D. Smythe (TE) Ques Sun - Ankle. C. Smith (CB) Ques Sun - Hamstring. K. Kohou (CB) Ques Sun - Hip. D. Elliott (S) Prob Sun - Concussion. L. Eichenberg (OL) Ques Sun - Calf. A. Jackson (OL) Ques Sun - Oblique. T. Armstead (T) Ques Sun - Knee. D. Achane (RB) Ques Sun - Toe. C. Brooks (RB) Prob Sun - Ankle. J. Holland (S) Ques Sun - Knee. R. Hunt (OL) Ques Sun - Hamstring. T. Hill (WR) Ques Sun - Ankle. X. Howard (CB) Ques Sun - Hip. E. Ogbah (DE) Ques Sun - Hamstring. C. Williams (OL) I-R - Knee. J. Baker (LB) Out indefinitely - Knee. J. Phillips (LB) I-R - Achilles. S. Ahmed (RB) Out indefinitely - Foot. I. Wynn (OL) Out indefinitely - Quadricep. E. Ezukanma (WR) Out indefinitely - Neck. K. Crossen (DB) I-R - Undisclosed. Z. Vandenburgh (LB) I-R - Undisclosed.
Notable Quotes
“It’s a gap. That’s part of my message. We play so well at home, and there’s just too big of a gap in our road games. We are conscious of it. We have a long flight home to continue to talk about, think about (it).” - Mike McCarthy after his team’s loss against the Bills in their last game.
“You can’t do anything about the past, and the future doesn’t exist. They really leaned into the day each and every day this week, and I was very proud, as proud as I’ve been of any performance from this team since I’ve been here.” - Mike McDaniel after his team’s win against the Jets in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Dallas Cowboys
WR Gallup, Michael
WR Cooks, Brandin
WR Lamb, CeeDee
TE Ferguson, Jake
QB Prescott, Dak
RB Pollard, Tony
FB Luepke, Hunter
Miami Dolphins
WR Waddle, Jaylen
WR Hill, Tyreek
WR Wilson Jr., Cedrick
TE Smythe, Durham
QB Tagovailoa, Tua
RB Mostert, Raheem
FB Ingold, Alec
Statistical Leaders
Dallas Cowboys
Passing: D. Prescott (3639)
Rushing: T. Pollard (848)
Receiving: C. Lamb (1306)
Touchdowns: C. Lamb (10)
Miami Dolphins
Passing: T. Tagovailoa (3921)
Rushing: R. Mostert (966)
Receiving: T. Hill (1542)
Touchdowns: R. Mostert (20)
Coaches:
Dallas Cowboys: Mike McCarthy (4th season)
Miami Dolphins: Mike McDaniel (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
