Dallas Cowboys vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds -- 11/21/2021

by Chuck Sommers

Game time: 4:25 p.m. ET
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Where to watch: FOX

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Chiefs -2.5
BetMGM: Chiefs -2.5
Caesars: Chiefs -2.5

Season record
Cowboys: 7-2 (1st place, NFC East) 
Chiefs: 6-4 (1st place, AFC West)

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Cowboys - Chiefs preview and analysis


Last week
Cowboys: won 43-3 vs. Falcons
Chiefs: won 41-14 at Raiders

And for your main event of the week, it could be a Super Bowl preview in Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday.

After statement wins for both teams on Sunday, the Dallas Cowboys and Kansas City Chiefs meet for what could be the appetizer for what’s to come in February.

The Cowboys and Chiefs needed victories to sort of create some establishment that the sky isn’t really falling. Both of them not only got big-time wins but did so in convincing fashion.

Dallas, one week after getting humbled by the Denver Broncos, rebounded in a resounding 43-3 victory against the Atlanta Falcons at home. Among those with a rough showing against Denver was quarterback Dak Prescott in his second game back from the calf injury, and he was terrific. Prescott threw for 296 yards and two touchdowns while also contributing a rushing score in the blowout.

CeeDee Lamb continued his red-hot season with six receptions for 94 yards and his fourth career two-touchdown. He’ll look for his third consecutive 100-yard game on the road this Sunday.

"Last week just wasn't us," said Prescott. "Everybody in our locker room knows that. It left a bad taste in our mouth. I think it's a taste we needed in a sense to understand how tough this game is."

One of the things that went horribly wrong for the Cowboys last week was the inability to capitalize on fourth down. Dallas had a much better showing in the aggressive aspect of the ball converting all three fourth-down opportunities while also going 6 of 14 on third down.

The Dallas defense got back to business by shutting down Matt Ryan and co. Atlanta had only 214 total yards and kept the Falcons to only 1 of 11 on third down. Ryan had 111 passing yards and the Atlanta offense had only 22:19 in time of possession.

“We had to go out there and set the tone,” said Ezekiel Elliott after his two-touchdown game. “You know we wanted the ball, we wanted to hit them in the mouth first, we wanted to go score first, and that’s what we did.”

The Dallas defense has shown the capability of hitting a lot of quarterbacks in the mouth. Never before has there been a situation where the Cowboys have no idea what to expect this week. They’re either getting the Patrick Mahomes that had a slump for the better part of the month, or the Mahomes that threw for a season-high 406 yards and five touchdowns against the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday Night Football.

In the blink of an eye, the Chiefs have won three in a row (albeit the first two in ugly fashion) and are in first place in the AFC West by way of the Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers’ struggles. Kansas City’s maligned defense has given up 12.8 points during its winning streak and held the Raiders to just 299 total yards.

"We've done it before," Mahomes said. "We've done it these last few seasons we were doing at the beginning of this season. We were moving the ball and making a lot of stuff happen. We were just turning the ball over. Then we kind of went through a little little spell where we weren't making these drives and we were still finding ways to win. I knew that we're going to click back into it."

The Mahomes of old came back with a vengeance and this is the first time the former Super Bowl MVP has faced the Cowboys. But it’s not the first time Andy Reid has faced Dallas. Rest assured the Philadelphia Eagles ways of old will show up with Travis Kelce going against the Dallas linebackers, and the battle of Tyreek Hill against Trevon Diggs will be awesome to watch.

Prediction


Whoever wins this game is going to have made the biggest statement this season. The Chiefs are riding high and are understood favorites heading into this one, but it comes down to which defense you trust more in this situation. Dallas is down Randy Gregory and DeMarcus Lawrence and had only two sacks last week. They’re going to need to get home, and I’m not sure they can. Kansas City in a barn burner. Chiefs by 3

Betting trends


The Cowboys are 8-1 ATS this season.

The Cowboys are 14-31 ATS since 1992 after covering five or six of  their last seven games.

The Cowboys are 8-1 ATS the past three seasons following a game of a turnover margin of +2.

The Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in the past three seasons after allowing 17 points or less in consecutive games.

The Chiefs are 33-9 straight up as a favorite the past three seasons; 17-5 straight up as a home favorite.

Players to watch


Cowboys: Trevon Diggs recorded his eighth interception of the season against the Falcons. He became the third player since 1990 with eight picks in a team’s first nine games of the season.

Chiefs: Running back Darrel Williams had a career-high 144 yards from scrimmage against the Raiders, including a receiving touchdown last week on nine receptions.

Statistical leaders


Cowboys:
Passing: Dak Prescott -- 2,341 yards, 20 TD, 5 INT
Rushing: Ezekiel Elliott -- 663 yards, 7 TD
Receiving: CeeDee Lamb -- 726 yards, 6 TD
Defense: Micah Parsons -- 6 sacks

Chiefs:
Passing: Patrick Mahomes -- 2,940 yards, 25 TD, 10 INT
Rushing: Darrell Williams -- 343 yards, 4 TD
Receiving: Tyreek Hill -- 855 yards, 8 TD
Defense: Tyrann Mathieu -- 2 INT

Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Dallas Cowboys - Kansas City Chiefs prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NFL projections and previews.

Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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