by Chuck Sommers
Sunday, Dec 18, 2022
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL
Where to watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Cowboys -4
FanDuel: Cowboys -4.5
BetMGM: Cowboys -4
Caesars: Cowboys -4
Season record
Cowboys: 10-3
Jaguars: 5-8
We’re coming down the home stretch of the NFL season and there’s still a lot left to get excited for on your TV screen (or your streaming device if you’re like me and watch Sunday Ticket on a Fire Stick. That works, too). Nevertheless, the final few weeks of the regular season are going to be hectic for everyone on the field, but just as much as everyone off it. You’re probably going to need to figure out which plays are the best ones in terms of teams sitting the star players for the playoff advantage, or which teams are going all in for the final playoff push. If you need that extra push, trust that our champion handicappers can get the job done for you. Matt Fargo has a 17-9-0 run over the last 30 days in the NFL. Brian Bitler has continued to stay consistent, despite a wild, unpredictable season, by going 16-9-0. Do you want a piece of this action? Make sure to stay locked to bigal.com and follow our champion handicappers so you can be a champion, too!
Cowboys - Jaguars preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Cowboys: won 27-23 vs. Texans
Jaguars: won 36-22 at Titans
Cowboys analysis
The Dallas Cowboys were almost on the receiving end of one of the worst upsets in NFL history from a betting perspective. It took a game-winning drive from Dak Prescott against the lowly Housotn Texans in order to avoid it. But by the grace of the football gods, they would not be made fun of on this day.
It’s not a whopping 17.5 that they’re favored by this time, but the Cowboys are laying 4.5 against a Jacksonville team that had a great week themselves a week ago. The Cowboys had been one of the best ATS teams to start the year, but they’ve alternated the last six and have been favored in the last seven.
There are a couple of things to keep in mind here. No, I don’t think the Cowboys are being frauds here. Among the favorites in the NFC, they’re the ones that have proven the most this season, both injured and healthy. Last week was a case of not showing up against an opponent that wanted to win. I also don’t think Dak Prescott is fully regressing, but there are decisions with the football he’s made over the last few weeks that have put everything into question.
Do I still think he’s better than most quarterbacks in this climate? Yes. And he’ll get a chance to prove that next week against Philadelphia. This game is more for the Cowboys in keeping pace with the Eagles than anything else. It’s right there for the taking for the Cowboys to close the year strong.
Jaguars analysis
It’s been a strong few weeks for the Jacksonville Jaguars where you ask yourself if they’ve started to turn a corner. Maybe not yet, but the Jags are at least making things entertaining. The last month and a half has brought wins over Las Vegas, Baltimore and Tennessee. The latter might be the most shocking of this whole thing, but Jacksonville isn’t out of the AFC South picture just yet.
The Jaguars are 3-1-1 in their last five against the spread and this is uaually the time where the points start flying. The over is 4-0 in their last four December games. Unfortunately for them, such a run has not been kind to them at home. The Jaguars are 1-8 ATS in their last nine December games.
It’s not high-pressured football yet for Trevor Lawrence. If they continue this kind of trajectory, however, that will come sooner than they think. Lawrence was tremendous, throwing for 368 yards and three touchdowns in the win over the Titans. Jacksonville didn’t need to run the ball and Even Engram had to look like his old college self with 162 yards and two touchdowns. The Cowboys have a few more athletic linebackers who can play coverage well against him.
Prediction
Four is a bit more manageable than 17. I don’t see the Cowboys slipping up this week. If TY Hilton makes his debut, a perfect chance for him to beat down an old foe with some much-needed downfield playmaking. Cowboys by 14
Betting trends
Cowboys are 21-10 ATS in all games the last 2 seasons.
Cowboys are 11-3 ATS on the road the last two seasons.
Jaguars are 6-15 after playing the last game on the road the last 3 seasons.
Statistical leaders
Cowboys:
Passing: Dak Prescott – 1,847 yards, 14 TD
Rushing: Tony Pollard – 894 yards, 6 TD
Receiving: CeeDee Lamb – 961 yards, 6 TD
Defense: Micah Parsons – 12 sacks
Jaguars:
Passing: Trevor Lawrence– 3,202 yards, 20 TD, 6 INT
Rushing: Travis Etienne – 814 yards, 4 TD
Receiving: Christian Kirk – 874 yards, 7 TD
Defense: Andre Cisco – 3 INT
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
