by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Nov 10, 2022
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
Venue: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
Where to watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Cowboys -4.5
FanDuel: Cowboys -5
BetMGM: Cowboys -4.5
Caesars: Cowboys -4.5
Season record
Cowboys: 6-2
Packers: 3-6
We have officially hit the halfway mark and if you haven't enjoyed the parity in the NFL this season, what are you even doing? There are so many quality teams with winning records that may, or may not, challenge for the Super Bowl, but it's going to at least make these final couple of months really interesting in all division races. And as the races get tighter and the football gets more intensified, it's all about the winning plays that you can find at bigal.com. If you need the right person to go off of for those winning plays, look no further than Sean Murphy going 20-14-0 over the last month in what's been a profitable 30 days for him. Oskeim Sports has also been solid at 9-5-1 over the last 30 days, with Al McMordie posting a 17-14-1 mark. No matter who you go with, you know you're getting the right call with our champion handicappers at bigal.com.
Cowboys - Packers preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Cowboys: won 49-29 vs. Bears
Packers: lost 15-9 at Lions
Mike McCarthy is back in Lambeau, the Green Bay Packers are in shambles, and his Dallas Cowboys are somehow not winning the NFC East with a 6-2 record. Nothing really makes sense this year in general, but especially in the NFC East, things are wild.
Mike McCarthy is back in Lambeau, the Green Bay Packers are in shambles, and his Dallas Cowboys are somehow not winning the NFC East with a 6-2 record. Nothing really makes sense this year in general, but especially in the NFC East, things are wild.
But McCarthy has done a good job in his second year with Dallas, and it’s revenge week when the former Packers coach faces Aaron Rodgers for the first time on Sunday in Green Bay in what could be the biggest game for the Cowboys this season, especially coming out of the bye week.
The Cowboys are coming off a 49-29 win against the Chicago Bears at home that was a coming-out party for Tony Pollard, running for 131 yards and three touchdowns. Dak Prescott completed 21 of 27 for 250 yards and 2 touchdowns to give the Cowboys a second straight win after losing to the Eagles back on Oct. 16. But the big story is McCarthy facing his former team for the first time since the Cowboys hired him to replace Jason Garrett two years ago.
Things have gone well so far for McCarthy, well on his way to a second straight playoff appearance, but this is likely a time to reminisce like winning Super Bowl 45 in AT&T Stadium, ironically enough, to win his lone Super Bowl.
“When I think of him, I think of the one-on-one conversations we used to have, especially in the younger days,” McCarthy said. “And it always ended with a hug and, ‘I love ya.’ So that’s what I think about our relationship. I think he made me a much better coach. You’re talking about a man that’s one of the premier professional athletes of his generation.”
Not that Prescott is on that same wavelength just yet, but at least there’s no dropoff at the quarterback position. The Cowboys have done a great job to stay afloat when Prescott went down with a thumb injury, with Cooper Rush righting the ship and winning four starts. A healthy Prescott, and now a healthy Ezekiel Elliott, could be the recipe that pushes the Cowboys far this year.
The Packers are likely being pushed off a cliff. Now at 3-6, Green Bay is likely staring at an endless void that is non-playoff football this year. Aaron Rodgers is having a miserable time, the offense can’t do anything right, and the defense is too taxed. Just look at how these last five games have gone: Lost to the Giants, Jets, Commanders, Bills and Lions. But maybe this will serve as some motivation for Rodgers and co.
“It’s probably normal in any relationship you have,” Rodgers said. “When you’re able to take time away and you have that separation, it’s natural to look back and have a greater sense of appreciation and gratitude and thankfulness for that time.”
Prediction
It’s not just the fact the Packers have been awful, but their offense has been one giant trajectory downward. The offense has gone from 22 to the following in order: 10, 21, 17 and 9. That isn’t supposed to be a thing with this group. And given how dominant Micah Parsons and this Dallas defense has been, expecting anything different from Green Bay now just doesn’t make sense. Cowboys dominate and keep the train rolling. Cowboys by 17
Betting trends
Cowboys are 12-4 ATS the last three years as a favorite between 3.5 and 9.5.
Cowboys are 30-14 ATS since 1992 as a road favorite between 3.5 and 7.
Cowboys are 8-2 ATS the last three years after winning two of three.
Cowboys are 15-35 ATS since 1992 after covering in 5 or 6 of the last 7 games.
Packers are 8-2 ATS as an underdog the last three years.
Packers are 42-23 ATS since 1992 after failing to cover in 4 or 5 of their last 6.
Packers are 45-24 ATS since 1992 after a loss by 6 or less.
Statistical leaders
Cowboys:
Passing: Dak Prescott -- 591 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT
Rushing: Tony Pollard -- 506 yards, 5 TD
Receiving: CeeDee Lamb -- 556 yards, 3 TD
Defense: Micah Parsons -- 8 sacks
Packers:
Passing: Aaron Rodgers -- 2,091 yards, 14 TD, 7 INT
Rushing: Aaron Jones -- 600 yards, 1 TD
Receiving: Allen Lazard -- 427 yards, 5 TD
Defense: Jaire Alexander -- 3 INT
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
