by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Mar 17, 2022
NCAA Tournament - First Round
Time: 7:27 p.m. ET
Time: 7:27 p.m. ET
Venue: Dickies Arena, Fort Worth, TX
Where to watch: truTV
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: San Diego State -2
BetMGM: San Diego State -2.5
Caesars: San Diego State -2
Season record
Creighton: 22-11
San Diego State: 23-8
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Creighton - San Diego State preview and analysis
Creighton analysis
I feel like we've forgotten the Creighton Bluejays a great deal. I blame the pandemic for this.
Think about it: Two years ago, the Bluejays were the No. 7 team in the country, perhaps the greatest group Greg McDermott had ever assembled. Who knows what this group could've done had the tournament never stopped? Creighton responded last season with a spot in the Sweet 16, only to get run over by eventual No. 2 Gonzaga.
In a year where the Big East was at the best its been in a very long time, Creighton was one of six teams to make the NCAA Tournament out of the conference and came within a few possessions of knocking off Villanova in the conference title game last week, losing 54-48. Ryan Kalkbrenner had an efficient night shooting the ball with 19 points on 8 of 11 shooting.
The problem was outside of Alex O'Connell, no one else was able to chip in offensively. Villanova's defense clamped down at the right time and held Creighton to just 32.8 percent shooting from the floor.
"We just had a night where nobody could make one," McDermott said. "And we still had a chance to win."
It's hard to say which team was actually the best in the Big East considering how uneven Villanova was all season. Creighton and Providence could have made a case, and Creighton will have a chance to put their stamp on a season with at least one NCAA Tournament victory. But their opponent brings one stout defense that could bring some trouble on Thursday.
San Diego State analysis
When you're a group that heavily relies on defense to win games, it becomes a struggle when you need to rely on a last-second play to win a conference championship.
The San Diego State Aztecs fell victim to that in the Mountain West Conference title game last week, losing 53-52 to the Boise State Broncos in Las Vegas. In a rare year for the Mountain West, San Diego State ended up being one of three teams in the Field of 68, but one is already out with Wyoming losing to Indiana.
Matt Bradley and LaMont Butler did all they could offensively, combining for 33 points, but Bradley had to take 17 shots in order to get there. If your best offensive player has to struggle so heavily to get to that point, I'd say that's a problem. That's why it's hard for me to believe San Diego State to make such a long run.
"I had space to just go down the lane and make a layup," said Bradley on his last shot attempt. "I should have made it. I was right at the rim. I missed two earlier layups the same way. I should have made it, I got the rebound and Trey had a great look, too.
San Diego State is going to win games with its defense. That's never changed no matter who has been leading this team, especially it being Kawhi Leonard or anyone of that ilk. The problem is they're not going to have enough talent to keep things afloat against the top teams. A potential second-round matchup with Kansas just doesn't seem like an ideal situation.
Prediction
As a UNLV alum, I can't stand San Diego State from the standpoint that they're just in the tournament and the Rebels aren't. It irks me. But this matchup works well in the Aztecs' favor when it comes to Creighton. I like the matchup in terms of the wings, and considering how bad Creighton looked against Villanova, this is going to be a tough game for Creighton. San Diego State by 12
Betting trends
Creighton is 22-11 ATS as an underdog the past three seasons.
Creighton is 58-49 ATS on a neutral court since 1997.
The under is 47-27 when San Diego State is a neutral court favorite.
Projected starting lineup
Creighton:
PG: Trey Alexander
SG: Alex O'Connell
SF: Ryan Hawkins
PF: Arthur Kaluma
C: Ryan Kalkbrenner
San Diego State:
PG: LaMont Butler
SG: Trey Pulliam
SF: Matt Bradley
PF: Keshad Johnson
C: Nathan Mensah
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
