The Copa Libertadores has finished with their qualifying stages and now the groups are set as the group stage will be starting on April 4th. Flamengo is the defending Champions of this competition but there are many good teams across South America this year and it is very difficult to win this competition B2B as it has only happened 1 time in the last 20 years. With the group stages set it is now time to see which teams have a real shot at making a deep run in this tournament.
To Win Outright
Flamengo +333: Flamengo is the defending Champions of this competition from last year and they have a very good record in recent years as they have won 2 of the titles in the last 4 years and have made the finals in 3 of those years as well. They did not have a great season in Brasil though as they only finished in 5th place and they were awful in the Club World Cup as they lost in the semi finals. This team still has a lot of quality players in the squad but they are also an aging team and are definitely not what they were in past years. Flamengo always has a chance to go deep in this tournament as they are a very big club in Brasil and they also tend to really focus on their matches in this competition, but there are still plenty of better teams than them and it will be tough for them to repeat this year.
Palmeiras +350: Palmeiras is coming into the group stage as the next biggest favorite to win the whole thing and even though they fell short last year, they have still had a lot of success in this competition over the last few years. They have actually won the title in 2 of the last 3 years, being the only team to win it in B2B years over the last 2 decades, and they will be hungry to make a deep run this year after failing to make the finals for a 3rd straight year last season. Palmeiras also had a great season in Brasil as they won the Brasileiro Serie A Title and it was not even close as they were 8 points ahead of the 2nd place team. Palmeiras still has a lot of quality players on their team and they are easily the best team in Brasil this year which is also the toughest league to play in when it comes to playing in South America. Palmeiras will also be focused more on this competition after winning the league title last year and they have a very good chance at making a deep run and winning it all.
River Plate +700: River Plate is coming into this game as the 3rd biggest favorite to win this competition and the biggest favorite in the competition for clubs from Argentina. This competition has been heavily dominated by Brasilian clubs over the last few years but River Plate has had plenty of success themselves as they were the last club from Argentina to win the title back in 2018 and they even made the finals again in 2019 as they lost to Flamengo but have been the only club from Argentina to make it to the finals in this competition since then. They are coming off of a season last year where they finished 3rd place in Argentina but they did make some moves and have improved a lot already as they are off to a much better start in their domestic league this year, leading the league in points after 8 matches. This is a competition that River Plate will be heavily focused on this season after years of Brasilian dominance in the competition. They have the history in this competition as well as a very good team this year that is going to dominate Argentina so they could very well see themselves in the finals this year. River Plate has a great chance to make a deep run in this competition.
Atletico Mineiro +850: Atletico Mineiro is coming into this tournament as the next biggest favorite on the board but they have been a very disappointing team over the last year. They were expected to make a much deeper run in this competition last season as they were on fire at the beginning of the year, but they fizzled out of the competition and things took a turn for the worse in their domestic league as well as they fell out of form finishing 7th place in the league. They even had to play in qualifying matches just to get to this group stage but they have been a team that has struggled away from home and has also struggled to score goals against better defenses which is going to be a problem for them in this tournament. They were trending in the wrong direction near the end of last season and they have not done much to really improve their team for this year. There are too many good teams in Brasil alone that they will struggle to get by and they will not have a great chance of making a deep run in this competition.
Boca Juniors +1000: Boca Juniors are coming into this competition as the next favorite on the board but they have not had a lot of success in this tournament over the years. They had a great season in their domestic league as they finished in 1st place but they have only made it to 1 Copa Libertadores finals over the last decade which they lost to River Plate as well. The last time Boca Juniors actually won this competition was back in 2007 and they have only made 3 appearances in the finals since then, losing every time. They are going to have a tough time getting past some of the clubs in Argentina that are better than they are and they will definitely struggle against the Brasilian powerhouses as well. Boca Juniors still has a good team but they always perform better in their domestic league than they do in this competition and they do not have a great chance of turning things around this year and making a deep run.
Corinthians +1400: Corinthians are coming into this competition as the next team on the board to win it all but they are another team that is going to struggle in this competition and will not be able to make a deep run. They only finished in 4th place in their domestic league last season as they were really starting to slip near the end of the season. They are a very good defensive team as they do not allow many goals in their matches but defense will only take you so far in this competition as these teams cannot rely on scoreless draws and hope to advance on penalties every round. Their attack is simply not strong enough to make a deep run in this competition as there are plenty of other great teams with great defense and they will struggle to break those clubs down with their attack. Their super defensive play and inability to score goals will come back to bite them in this competition as they will likely see an early exit in one of the Knockout Stages.
Fluminense +1600: Fluminense is coming into this competition as the next club on the board to win the whole thing and they are coming off of a very good season where they finished in 3rd place in Brasil but were really starting to surge near the end of the season. This team has improved a lot from previous years and they are a team that really takes advantage of their home matches which will be important in this competition. Even more important though, they had one of the best away records in Brasil last year which is going to be very important when traveling to different countries to play in these matches. They have also been a very good defensive team but also have a very potent attack and they have shown that they can hang with some of the best teams in Brasil. They do not have a good history in the competition over the last few years but they have also been a very bad team over that time as they are just starting to re-emerge as a dominant power in Brasil now. Fluminense has a very good team and they are a darkhorse in this competition to win the whole thing as they are coming off of their best season in years and are only going to get better this year.
Internacional +2000: Internacional is coming into this competition as the next team on the board to win this competition and they are coming off of a very good season where they finished in 2nd place in Brasil. Internacional was also one of the better away teams in Brasil last season with the 5th best away record but they really take advantage of their home matches as they had the best home record in Brasil with a +26 goal differential as they were averaging over 2 goals scored per match there and were allowing under 1 goal per match as well. Internacional also made a pretty deep run in Copa Sudamericana as they were eliminated in the quarter finals but that really propelled them to be better as they finished their season in Brasil playing very well. Now that they are in Copa Libertadores they will be a lot more focused on winning this competition and they are a darkhorse to make a deep run here with the talent they have.
There are plenty of good teams in this competition but when betting on an outright winner it is best to go with a Brasilian club as they do have the strongest domestic league in South America and they have also dominated this competition over the last few years with the last 4 straight titles as well as 5 of the last 6 being won by a Brasilian club, and the last 3 years have seen 2 Brasilian clubs in the finals every time. Flamengo is not the club they used to be and Palmeiras still has one of the best teams in South America so there is some value in Palmeiras winning this competition at +350 with the recent success they have had. Argentina does have some good clubs as well though and considering how the last 3 years have all been Brasilian clubs, River Plate will be very focused on this competition with their previous success and they have the best chance of winning the whole thing for a club from Argentina so there is value in River Plate at +700. If looking for a darkhorse to win the competition, Fluminense at +1600 and Internacional at +2000 are both great options considering how good they were last year in the toughest league in South America and they have also shown the ability to win matches away from home which is very important in these competitions. Palmeiras +350, River Plate +700, Fluminense +1600, and Internacional +2000 are the best options to go with for futures in this competition.