by Chuck Sommers
Sunday, Jun 19, 2022Stanley Cup Final, Game 3 -- Avalanche lead series 2-0
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Venue: Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL
Where to watch: ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
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Monty Hale completed a strong 9-2-0 run over the last month in the NHL. Are you ready for the most highly anticipated Stanley Cup Final we’ve had in a long time? The two best teams over the past few seasons going at it. And you need to make sure you’re locked in at bigal.com for all of the analysis and thoughts on who will win between the Lightning and Avalanche. You need to be tuned in here to find out all the expert analysis. Catch Monty’s plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.
Lightning - Avalanche preview and analysis
Domination. Perfection. A good-old fashioned butt whoopin'. Not in anyone's wildest dreams would they have expected the Colorado Avalanche to dominate Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Final the way that they did. If you close your eyes long enough, you can see Andrei Vasilevskiy giving up another goal. Not even for the two-time Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning, with all the hockey they've played over the last two years, did anyone think that could be a result that would've happened.
And yet here I am, the masochist that I am, thinking the Lightning still have a chance in this series as the final shifts to Tampa for Games 3 and 4, with the third installment of this classic on Monday. And yes, even with the Avalanche winning 7-0 in Game 2 and putting on one of the more embarrassing performances we've seen from the Lightning in the last few years, this series is not over and until Colorado wins a game on the road, this is very much a thing.
But I can understand the reasoning for people wanting to believe this one is over. The Avalanche won Game 1 by the skin of their teeth, blowing a two-goal lead and eventually winning it in overtime, to putting on a clinic and a one-man show in Game 2. But with the series heading to Florida and now the series playing a game every other day, perhaps that's what Tampa needs to get going into a groove.
They're going to need some sort of excuse and will need any form of reason to believe that Game 2 was an aberration. Vasilevskiy gave up seven goals on 30 shots, which is just an absurd realization to think about, and Valeri Nichushkin scored twice and continued his tremendous Cup Final run to put the Avalanche within two wins of a championship.
"I thought it was exceptional," Colorado coach Jared Bednar said. "I thought our guys played hard right from the drop off the puck. Highly committed on the defensive side of things. Dangerous offensively. We were tenacious on pucks, relentless puck pursuit. And that was throughout our entire lineup."
That's absolutely one way to put it.
What Colorado did was a clinic. Six players had at least two points, with Mikko Rantanen leading the way with three assists, and Cale Makar joined Nichushkin on the fun with two goals in the third period -- one a shorthanded goal on a 2-on-1, and then a power-play goal off a beautiful cross-ice feed from Rantanen.
On the flip side for Tampa, it was just an awful night of plus/minus. Victor Hedman was on the ice for three goals allowed, and seven other Tampa players were on the ice for two allowed. Two of those players included Nikita Kucherov and captain Steven Stamkos.
"People are going to be watching this game tonight and probably think the series is over, but our group, we're a very resilient group," Stamkos said. "We get to go back home. We were in this position last round. So, whether it's 1-0 or 7-0 or 10-0, it's a loss in the playoffs and you've got to move on. We've got to man up as a team and as a person. You know, our team is going to do that. Let's get back home in front of our fans, and let's see what we're made of."
But why do I think Tampa can clearly squash this and move on to Game 3 with no problem? Look at two of their previous series. People were throwing dirt on the Lightning after losing Game 1 in Toronto, and even when they were down 3-2 to the Maple Leafs. They came back to win in 7. Then with the Eastern Conference Final, the notion was that the Rangers figured out how to stop Tampa. That series went from 0-2 to 4-2 in the blink of an eye. You never underestimate the will of a champion. Especially this modern-day NHL dynasty.
"It was certainly as close to perfect of a game as you can get from your players," Bednar said.
And yet here I am, the masochist that I am, thinking the Lightning still have a chance in this series as the final shifts to Tampa for Games 3 and 4, with the third installment of this classic on Monday. And yes, even with the Avalanche winning 7-0 in Game 2 and putting on one of the more embarrassing performances we've seen from the Lightning in the last few years, this series is not over and until Colorado wins a game on the road, this is very much a thing.
But I can understand the reasoning for people wanting to believe this one is over. The Avalanche won Game 1 by the skin of their teeth, blowing a two-goal lead and eventually winning it in overtime, to putting on a clinic and a one-man show in Game 2. But with the series heading to Florida and now the series playing a game every other day, perhaps that's what Tampa needs to get going into a groove.
They're going to need some sort of excuse and will need any form of reason to believe that Game 2 was an aberration. Vasilevskiy gave up seven goals on 30 shots, which is just an absurd realization to think about, and Valeri Nichushkin scored twice and continued his tremendous Cup Final run to put the Avalanche within two wins of a championship.
"I thought it was exceptional," Colorado coach Jared Bednar said. "I thought our guys played hard right from the drop off the puck. Highly committed on the defensive side of things. Dangerous offensively. We were tenacious on pucks, relentless puck pursuit. And that was throughout our entire lineup."
That's absolutely one way to put it.
What Colorado did was a clinic. Six players had at least two points, with Mikko Rantanen leading the way with three assists, and Cale Makar joined Nichushkin on the fun with two goals in the third period -- one a shorthanded goal on a 2-on-1, and then a power-play goal off a beautiful cross-ice feed from Rantanen.
On the flip side for Tampa, it was just an awful night of plus/minus. Victor Hedman was on the ice for three goals allowed, and seven other Tampa players were on the ice for two allowed. Two of those players included Nikita Kucherov and captain Steven Stamkos.
"People are going to be watching this game tonight and probably think the series is over, but our group, we're a very resilient group," Stamkos said. "We get to go back home. We were in this position last round. So, whether it's 1-0 or 7-0 or 10-0, it's a loss in the playoffs and you've got to move on. We've got to man up as a team and as a person. You know, our team is going to do that. Let's get back home in front of our fans, and let's see what we're made of."
But why do I think Tampa can clearly squash this and move on to Game 3 with no problem? Look at two of their previous series. People were throwing dirt on the Lightning after losing Game 1 in Toronto, and even when they were down 3-2 to the Maple Leafs. They came back to win in 7. Then with the Eastern Conference Final, the notion was that the Rangers figured out how to stop Tampa. That series went from 0-2 to 4-2 in the blink of an eye. You never underestimate the will of a champion. Especially this modern-day NHL dynasty.
"It was certainly as close to perfect of a game as you can get from your players," Bednar said.
Game 3 prediction
Coming back after Game 1 was imperative. I don't expect the Avalanche to do this twice, nor do I expect the Lightning to lay an egg like they did in Game 2. Vasilevskiy will be better in front of the home fans, the Lightning will try to rattle Darcy Kuemper, and will likely succeed. Bet against Tampa at home at your own risk. Lightning win 4-3
Betting trends
Avalanche are 25-13 this season off a home win.
Avalanche are 32-14 this season off a win by two goals or more.
Avalanche are 50-19 this season off a win or OTL in their previous game.
Lightning are 12-3 this season when revenging a loss by three goals or more.
Lightning are 8-0 the past three seasons when being shut out on the road by at least four goals.
Avalanche are 32-14 this season off a win by two goals or more.
Avalanche are 50-19 this season off a win or OTL in their previous game.
Lightning are 12-3 this season when revenging a loss by three goals or more.
Lightning are 8-0 the past three seasons when being shut out on the road by at least four goals.
Projected lines
Lightning:
Steven Stamkos -- Brayden Point -- Nikita Kucherov
Brandon Hagel -- Anthony Cirelli -- Alex Killorn
Ross Colton -- Nicholas Paul -- Ondrej Palat
Pat Maroon -- Pierre-Edouard Bellemare -- Corey Perry
Victor Hedman -- Jan Rutta
Ryan McDonagh -- Erik Cernak
Mikhail Sergachev -- Zach Bogosian
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Avalanche:
Gabriel Landeskog -- Nathan MacKinnon -- Valeri Nichushkin
Artturi Lehkonen -- Mikko Rantanen -- Andre Burakovsky
Alex Newhook -- J.T. Compher -- Nico Sturm
Andrew Cogliano -- Darren Helm -- Logan O'Connor
Devon Toews -- Cale Makar
Jack Johnson -- Josh Manson
Bowen Byram -- Erik Johnson
Darcy Kuemper
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
