by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Dec 05, 2022
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Venue: Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA
Where to watch: NBCSP, ALT
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Avalanche -215, Flyers +185
FanDuel: Avalanche -205, Flyers +168
BetMGM: Avalanche -200, Flyers +165
Caesars: Avalanche -215, Flyers +175
Season record
Avalanche: 13-8-1
Flyers: 8-12-5
Two months into the NHL season, and man, what action we’ve had. So much parity, so many good teams through the first 10-plus games, you have every right to be excited! It’s still a three-team race between Vegas, Boston and New Jersey. But this is a good time to be playing these hockey games, as well. Look no further than our own Doc's Sports on a 14-7-0 run over the first 30 days of the NHL season. There's also ASA, Inc. posting a 12-5-1 mark through the first month. You know you can trust our champion handicappers to get you across the finish line with your NHL bets. Check out our Best Bets page at bigal.com to see what we're throwing down!
Avalanche - Flyers preview, prediction and analysis
Recent results
Avalanche: lost 5-1 at Bruins on Saturday
Flyers: lost 3-2 vs. Devils on Saturday
Avalanche analysis
The Colorado Avalanche’s defense of their Stanley Cup title is not as seamless and beautiful as they probably anticipated it to be. Injuries and questionable decisions in goaltending have made this a bit interesting, but they’re still a dynamic team that can win a bunch of games and be a threat come playoff time.
That will come to fruition once Gabriel Landeskog returns to the lineup. The Avs’ captain is expected to return in January. Until then, it’s Nathan MacKinnon doing Nathan MacKinnon things, like scoring a bunch of points and being that dynamic gamechanger.
But even with these injuries, I’m not sure what version of the Avalanche we’re getting right now. One day they can beat the Dallas Stars 4-1, the next they get shut out by the Winnipeg Jets. They can follow that by putting up six against the Buffalo Sabres (as expected), but then lost 5-1 to the Boston Bruins, showing that there might be a bigger gap in that talent discrepancy at the moment.
Colorado has put up a 5-3-0 mark in its last eight games, but it hasn’t been pretty. The Avs are outsourcing teams, barely, 24-23 in the last eight games. Nine of those goals have come on the power play on 34 opportunities, which is still above a 25% clip. Possession, however, has been a problem. Teams have out-attempted Colorado 352-316 in the last eight games (48.7 CF%).
That’s not what Colorado does, nor is it known for being that way. Goaltending can’t even be considered the biggest problem. Alexandar Georgiev is not Darcy Kuemper, yes, but he’s at least seeing a good amount of shots and is saving them. How much that can actually be a good thing will probably be known until later in the year. But Colorado has time. Once they get healthy, you know they’re a wagon.
Flyers analysis
The John Tortorella effect has officially run its course. The Philadelphia Flyers are who we thought they were and the race to the bottom is on in the City of Brotherly Love. That’s what happens when you find yourself at a 10-game losing streak at one point, finally win, and then lose to the Tampa Bay Lightning and New Jersey Devils just like that.
The Flyers are coming off a 3-2 loss to the Devils on Saturday. Travis Konecny scored, but that was about it. After a 1-1 game heading into the third, Dawson Mercer and Jack Hughes scored to put the game away.
Not that there’s anything surprising. This was bound to happen. Philly just isn’t good. Tortorella was already running his team into the ground before the season began, and they’re slowly breaking down. They have to get Carter Hart to stand on his head at the most inopportune times and that’s just the way it is. They don’t have enough in the tank to outscore teams on a daily basis.
Prediction
Sometimes you just know that you’re going to see one team overwhelm the other. This is a time for Colorado to find its game and win a game with ease. Avalanche win 4-0
Betting trends
Avalanche are 158-126 in road games playing non-conference opponents since 1996.
Flyers are 6-29 after a division game the last 2 seasons.
Flyers are 6-21 after scoring 2 goals or less in 2 straight games the last 2 seasons.
The under is 138-99 when the Flyers play home non-conference games since 1996.
Projected lines
Avalanche:
Artturi Lehkonen -- Nathan MacKinnon -- Mikko Rantanen
Andrew Cogliano -- J.T. Compher -- Logan O'Connor
Alex Galchenyuk -- Alex Newhook -- Jean-Luc Foudy
Dryden Hunt -- Jayson Megna -- Anton Blidh
Devon Toews -- Cale Makar
Jacob MacDonald -- Erik Johnson
Samuel Girard -- Andreas Englund
Alexandar Georgiev
Flyers:
Kevin Hayes -- Noah Cates -- Travis Konecny
Max Willman -- Lukas Sedlak -- Owen Tippett
Scott Laughton -- Morgan Frost -- Joel Farabee
Nicolas Deslauriers -- Patrick Brown -- Zack MacEwen
Ivan Provorov -- Rasmus Ristolainen
Travis Sanheim -- Justin Braun
Nick Seeler -- Tony DeAngelo
Carter Hart
Statistical leaders
Avalanche:
Points: Nathan MacKinnon – 33
Goals: Mikko Rantanen – 14
Assists: Nathan MacKinnon – 25
Goalie: Alexandar Georgiev – 11-3-1, 2.58 GAA, .922 SV%
Flyers:
Points: Kevin Hayes – 25
Goals: Travis Konecny – 9
Assists: Kevin Hayes – 17
Goalie: Carter Hart – 7-7-4, 2.82 GAA, .911 SV%
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
