by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Jun 06, 2022Western Conference Final, Game 4 – Avalanche lead 3-0
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Venue: Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB
Where to watch: TNT, SN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Avalanche -135, Oilers +115
BetMGM: Avalanche -130, Oilers +105
Caesars: Avalanche -130, Oilers +110
Al McMordie has reeled off a strong 20-8-0 run over the last month in the NHL. The Stanley Cup Playoffs are down to the Final Four. The last teams standing are high-octane, can score a lot of goals, and at least two of them have some great goaltending. Buckle up, it’s going to be a fun time to finish up. You need to be tuned in here to find out all the expert analysis. Catch Al’s plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.
Avalanche - Oilers preview and analysis
I think it's safe to prepare your flowers and your last respects to the Edmonton Oilers. It's over, realizing a blown opportunity was had after Game 1. The Colorado Avalanche were the ones that made the right adjustments and are one win away from getting back to the Stanley Cup Final for the first time in about two decades.
The Avalanche will get the opportunity to sweep the Oilers in Edmonton and return to the Cup Final, while also doing so for the first time in the Nathan MacKinnon Era. Colorado won 4-2 in Game 3 despite a quick start from the Oilers 38 seconds in with Connor McDavid scoring.
But behind another solid performance from Pavel Francouz, outplaying Mike Smith, Colorado is closing in on finally reaching its potential. It's taken a few years, and maybe the Vegas Golden Knights not making the playoffs this year, for it to happen. But it's just about done.
"Our team is confident on the road and at home, it doesn't matter," Colorado coach Jared Bednar said. "We preach, regardless of the venue we're playing and what kind of environment we're playing in, it's still the same details that we need. You have to be a little bit better on the road, obviously, because they're going to get a little bit of juice from the home crowd, and we saw that in the first period tonight."
And if the Oilers weren't on the ropes before, they now have to go into Game 4 without Evander Kane in the lineup. The boarding call against him after checking Nazem Kadri into the boards face-first earned the controversial forward a one-game suspension, and now they have to go shorthanded into this one without one of their best scorers.
Kadri, meanwhile, is out for the remainder of the series, at least.
In the end, it might not matter. The Oilers have just looked overmatched since Game 1 and have not been able to capitalize off scoring six goals against Francouz and Darcy Kuemper. And even with Kuemper out and going to the backup, the offense has been extremely limited at the worst time.
"I thought it was a competitive hockey game," Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft said. "Penalty kill was excellent (5-for-5). Some of the goals that went in against us, one goes in off of our stick, one goes in off a blocked shot and lands on someone's tape, and another one where a player comes out of the box where we just hit the post. So those are tough ones, but our team competed to the very end."
Now, the Avalanche are in the driver's seat, and I could easily expect the Avs to take this game off and go back home with the chance to clinch. The numbers, however, have proven otherwise. The Avalanche are 16-4 this season alone after a road win by two goals or more, and are 6-0 this season after three straight games with eight shots or more against the opponent. That number goes to 18-3 over the past three seasons.
"They're a good hockey team, I'm going to keep saying that," McDavid said. "They obviously do a lot of good things defensively and offensively. We're a good team, too, and we have to find a way to score and find a way to defend as well."
It's wild how much Colorado has dominated this season, and how quickly they have been able to offset everything since the St. Louis series when they were in trouble. Now, of course, whomever comes out of the East will prove to be a much bigger challenge, but it's insane that we've even reached this point.
"It obviously stings to go down 3-0, but saying that, it's not over until you lose four," Smith said. "We've got to come back in Game 4 and try and win one game and move on from there. Obviously, the desperation level has to be at an all-time high in order to win at this time of the year."
The Avalanche will get the opportunity to sweep the Oilers in Edmonton and return to the Cup Final, while also doing so for the first time in the Nathan MacKinnon Era. Colorado won 4-2 in Game 3 despite a quick start from the Oilers 38 seconds in with Connor McDavid scoring.
But behind another solid performance from Pavel Francouz, outplaying Mike Smith, Colorado is closing in on finally reaching its potential. It's taken a few years, and maybe the Vegas Golden Knights not making the playoffs this year, for it to happen. But it's just about done.
"Our team is confident on the road and at home, it doesn't matter," Colorado coach Jared Bednar said. "We preach, regardless of the venue we're playing and what kind of environment we're playing in, it's still the same details that we need. You have to be a little bit better on the road, obviously, because they're going to get a little bit of juice from the home crowd, and we saw that in the first period tonight."
And if the Oilers weren't on the ropes before, they now have to go into Game 4 without Evander Kane in the lineup. The boarding call against him after checking Nazem Kadri into the boards face-first earned the controversial forward a one-game suspension, and now they have to go shorthanded into this one without one of their best scorers.
Kadri, meanwhile, is out for the remainder of the series, at least.
In the end, it might not matter. The Oilers have just looked overmatched since Game 1 and have not been able to capitalize off scoring six goals against Francouz and Darcy Kuemper. And even with Kuemper out and going to the backup, the offense has been extremely limited at the worst time.
"I thought it was a competitive hockey game," Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft said. "Penalty kill was excellent (5-for-5). Some of the goals that went in against us, one goes in off of our stick, one goes in off a blocked shot and lands on someone's tape, and another one where a player comes out of the box where we just hit the post. So those are tough ones, but our team competed to the very end."
Now, the Avalanche are in the driver's seat, and I could easily expect the Avs to take this game off and go back home with the chance to clinch. The numbers, however, have proven otherwise. The Avalanche are 16-4 this season alone after a road win by two goals or more, and are 6-0 this season after three straight games with eight shots or more against the opponent. That number goes to 18-3 over the past three seasons.
"They're a good hockey team, I'm going to keep saying that," McDavid said. "They obviously do a lot of good things defensively and offensively. We're a good team, too, and we have to find a way to score and find a way to defend as well."
It's wild how much Colorado has dominated this season, and how quickly they have been able to offset everything since the St. Louis series when they were in trouble. Now, of course, whomever comes out of the East will prove to be a much bigger challenge, but it's insane that we've even reached this point.
"It obviously stings to go down 3-0, but saying that, it's not over until you lose four," Smith said. "We've got to come back in Game 4 and try and win one game and move on from there. Obviously, the desperation level has to be at an all-time high in order to win at this time of the year."
Prediction
It's over. Get back to Colorado, get ready for New York or Tampa and try to win the Stanley Cup again. It's your time, Colorado. Avalanche win 4-3
Betting trends
Avalanche are 3-2 since 1996 when leading a series 3-0.
Avalanche are 23-6 off a road win this season.
Avalanche are 25-8 off a 3-game unbeaten streak this season.
Oilers are 10-8 when facing elimination since 1996.
Oilers are 6-9 off a home loss this season.
Avalanche are 23-6 off a road win this season.
Avalanche are 25-8 off a 3-game unbeaten streak this season.
Oilers are 10-8 when facing elimination since 1996.
Oilers are 6-9 off a home loss this season.
Projected lines
Avalanche:
Gabriel Landeskog -- Nathan MacKinnon -- Artturi Lehkonen
Valeri Nichushkin -- Nazem Kadri -- Mikko Rantanen
Andre Burakovsky -- J.T. Compher -- Nicolas Aube-Kubel
Logan O'Connor -- Darren Helm -- Andrew Cogliano
Devon Toews -- Cale Makar
Jack Johnson -- Josh Manson
Bowen Byram -- Erik Johnson
Pavel Francouz
Oilers:
Oilers:
Zach Hyman -- Connor McDavid -- Leon Draisaitl
Derick Brassard -- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins -- Jesse Puljujarvi
Warren Foegele -- Ryan McLeod -- Kailer Yamamoto
Josh Archibald -- Derek Ryan -- Zack Kassian
Darnell Nurse -- Cody Ceci
Duncan Keith -- Evan Bouchard
Brett Kulak -- Tyson Barrie
Mike Smith
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
