College Hoops- Underdogs Running Hot- Will We Flip to Faves?

March is just around the corner, and it is the best time of the year for college hoops fans. College hoops bettors who have been on the underdogs in the last week and month have been making money. Could this flip to favorites soon? Let’s take a look at some numbers.

Underdogs are 736-665 (52.5% ATS) in the last 30 days. Road underdogs are sitting at 53.1% during that month long period. 

What about underdogs in the last week? Dogs are 179-155 ATS (53.6%) in the past seven days. Road dogs are 53.7% in the past week and home dogs are 53.3% in the past week.

For the season as a whole, underdogs are cashing at 51.5% ATS.

Will there be value on favorites the rest of the regular season? Of course this is something you should look at on a case by case basis, but in the long term large favorites have actually done well in the last couple games of the regular season.

This is the time of the year when very bad teams are capable of getting crushed as they simply shut it down late in the regular season.

When playing against an opponent with a 50% or higher ATS cover rate- favorites of -15 or higher the favorite is 101-65 ATS (60.8% ATS) since 2011. The system is 81-41 ATS on home teams that fit this.

The system here is a fade of a team that has covered relatively well, but is still a huge underdog in the last few games of the regular season. 

Will favorites flip around and start covering at a high rate overall? That is tough to predict, but I do think there will be some value on the big favorites. Many bettors will likely be afraid to lay the points in these spots, but I think there will be solid value. 

Don’t be afraid of laying the big number late in the season!