College Football: Two Season Win Total Under Wagers

College football is here! Week zero is this coming weekend. I am a big fan of the season win total markets, and I have had a lot of success on these wagers in the long run. Let’s take a look at two season win under wagers I have made for the upcoming season.

North Texas under 5.5 (+110) 

You won’t find a bigger power ratings downgrade than North Texas from last season to the start of this season. The people who try to handicap based off of last year are in deep trouble here. Morris and Mestemaker are at Oklahoma State. Neal Brown steps in here. North Texas had the 137th rated recruiting class out of 138 teams this year. They tried to do their work in the portal, but they didn’t get enough high end guys. A huge drop off is coming.

The North Texas offensive line looks a massive weakness and there are a lot of defensive fronts on their schedule who will take advantage of that weakness. North Texas wants to run the football with White in the backfield, but the offensive line is likely to make that a difficult task.

I have North Texas as an underdog of more than 3 points in seven games. I have them favored by more than a touchdown just three times all season. 

I think it is likely they start 0-3. 4-8 looks more likely than 6-6. I’ll take the under here at plus money. 

Illinois under 4.5 conference wins (-115) Note that this is Big Ten conference games only, not the full season. Luke Altmeyer did a tremendous job taking care of the ball and bailing Illinois out of a lot of bad situations. His scrambling ability was underrated. I like Katin Houser pretty well, but he is a downgrade from Altmeyer. 

Illinois was long thought of as a strong team in the trenches under Bret Bielema. This offensive line is now a clear weakness. They averaged just 3.9 YPC last year. They are less experienced this year and the running backs behind them are below average for a Big Ten team. 

The Illini have had a great defensive line the last couple years. That is no longer the case. Gabe Jacas was a huge loss. They’ll be much worse against the run this season.

What is the identity of this team? I’m not sure. They are no longer a smashmouth strong in the trenches team and they lost their star QB. The defense is way down from a few years ago as well.

Schedule- at Ohio State and home against Oregon are huge underdog roles for Illinois. I like UCLA and I think at UCLA is a likely loss. Purdue at home is the only real “free” win I see here.

I took conference winds under 4.5 to save the juice rather than taking under 7.5 at -160 though I do think they will stay under the 7.5 as well.