College Football's Game Five Nosedive

As we approach the halfway point of the college football season, a number of squads have been put on notice.  Are you going to be a pretender or a contender?  With most FBS teams scheduled to play 12 regular season games, that needs to be determined as quickly as possible or it might be too little too late.

 

Before the mid-point of the season hits next week, I researched how well teams did in a game five settings.  There were a number of things that I looked at, but none more important than those schools that owned a critical .500 record.  In my opinion, college teams sitting at 2-2 SU after four games were locked into a must-win situation.  It was my expectation that these squads would do very well both SU and ATS.  The best of what I discovered was far from that.

 

As you know, with the help of my college football database, the same one that was featured in the December 13th, 2010, issue of the ESPN Insider magazine, I’ve been able to isolate and profit from a number of outstanding technical situations that have performed very well.  My “College Football’s Game Five Nosedive” system is one that has made my clients and I a great deal of profit over the years.  Take a look at this beauty.

 

Since 1980, PLAY AGAINST any 2-2 SU game five college favorite priced at -4.5 or more provided they are playing a conference foe and check in without confidence off back-to-back straight up losses.

 43-Year ATS Record = 39-13-2 ATS for 75.0 percent

This Week’s Play = MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE

Surprisingly, these conference favorites in need of a win to get off the .500 mark continue to tank provided they take the field of battle without momentum off a pair of straight up losses.  After knocking the snot out of South Florida and Houston Christian, Western Kentucky has fallen on hard times in its last two games against Ohio State and Troy.  The knee-jerk reaction would be to jump all over the Hilltoppers thinking they would bounce back.  According to this college system, that is exactly what you don’t want to do. 

 

There is one special parameter that can be added to this situation that really makes it pop.  If our “play against” side was priced as a favorite or a short underdog of +6 or less in its last game, this system falls to a woeful 6-24-1 ATS.  Western Kentucky was a +4-point pooch at Troy last Saturday and the Hilltoppers apply to this negative wagering situation.

 

Good Luck with MTSU plus the points at WKU on Thursday evening.