by Hollywood Sports
Wednesday, Sep 30, 2026For the 16th straight summer, I invested time researching each FBS college football team to serve as the foundation for my college football handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic note-taking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from reading and studying multiple sources. Each FBS team now takes about 45 minutes to an hour of preparation time.
To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.
AIR FORCE: The Falcons have just a 9-15 record over the last two seasons after dropping to 4-8 last year. Maintaining year-to-year success for the military academies that do not take players in the transfer portal or offer NIL income. But the last time Air Force had two losing seasons in a row, they responded with an 11-2 campaign in 2019. They had two straight 10-3 seasons before this recent two-year slide under head coach Troy Calhoun in his 20th year running the program. Losing three of their four games decided by one scoring possession last season did not help their cause. The Falcons need to get back to playing great defense. After ranking in the top 30 in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings for four straight years, they fell to 74th in that metric for the 2024-25 season and then 101st last season. Air Force ranked 116th in the FBS by surrendering 423.2 total Yards-Per-Game — but the silver lining is that they held their last four opponents to just 349.0 Yards-Per-Game. Eight starters are back on that side of the ball. Calhoun brought back Steve Russ to be the defensive coordinator after serving in that capacity from 2014 through 2017 before moving on to the NFL, where he coached linebackers for six years. He was the defensive coordinator at UAB last season. Calhoun could have his most explosive offense in years with the return to health of junior quarterback Liam Szarka. In his eight games last year when he played at least 40 snaps, the Falcons scored 31.0 Points-Per-Game. The dual-threat generated at least 200 passing yards and 100 rushing yards in his three career starts. He threw the ball 75 times last season, with 21 of those passes going for at least 20 yards. He also generated 5.4 Yards-Per-Carry and averaged 92.2 rushing YPG with 13 touchdowns with his legs. He will be joined in the backfield by senior fullback Owen Allen, who has rushed for at least 1000 yards in three of the last four years. The offensive line returns two starters along with another two players who logged in at least 250 snaps. This is a big group that averages more than 300 pounds per starter.
ARKANSAS STATE: The Red Wolves did not see their win total improve last season for the first time in four years — but head coach Butch Jones has this program headed in a positive direction. After going 5-19 in his first two seasons at Arkansas State, Jones has overseen a 21-18 record in the last three years here in Jonesboro. The Red Wolves started slow last year by winning just one of their first five games — but they rallied in the second half of the season by winning six of their last eight contests, culminating in a 34-28 victory against Missouri State in the xBox Bowl. Ten starters are back from that team, although there are some critical losses. On offense, wide receiver Corey Rucker was signed as an undrafted free agent by the Las Vegas Raiders after breaking the program’s all-time receiving yards record. Senior quarterback Jaylen Raynor transferred to Iowa State after passing for 8694 yards and accounting for 67 total touchdowns in the last three seasons after taking over under center after four games in the 2023 season. The team will really miss the six game-winning touchdown drives he engineered in the last two seasons. Even with Raynor under center last year, the Red Wolves failed to score more than 21 points six times — and they scored less than 17 points for times. On the bright side, five of the seven players who caught at least 25 balls are back. And the strength of the unit should be an offensive line that returns five of the seven players who had at least four starts last season. Jones was not complacent with the offensive line room either, as he added four players in the transfer portal and another two junior college players. The defense replaces the entire front six — and the transfer of defensive tackle Cody Sigler will sting. The defensive backfield has three starters back, including their top four safeties from last season. Jones brought in 17 players in the transfer portal and four junior college players to help defensive coordinator Griff McCarley in his second season running the defense. While Arkansas State ranked 110th in the nation by giving up 413.3 total Yards-Per-Game, that did represent an improvement of 49 YPG from 2024. Getting similar improvement from this unit is critical — the Red Wolves won four of their five games when holding their opponent to less than 27 points. But the margins remain too thin for this team that only outgained their Sun Belt Conference opponents by +13 net YPG, despite a 5-3 record in conference play. After going 7-0 in games decided by seven points or less two years ago, four of Arkansas State’s seven victories were by six points or less. If the quarterback play drops significantly without Raynor, this team could be in trouble.
SMU: The Mustangs were one of the biggest surprises of the 2024-25 season by going undefeated in the ACC and reaching the College Football Playoff. Fourth-year head coach Rhett Lashlee had pulled off a minor miracle by leading this SMU program to two straight 11-win seasons. But the Mustangs also benefited from a soft non-conference schedule (and their lone regular season loss was against BYU) and a conference campaign that did not include Clemson, Miami (FL), and Syracuse — so I was worried that the team would experience a drop-off last season. SMU finished 9-4 last season after beating Arizona in the Holiday Bowl by a 24-10 score. On the one hand, they beat Miami (FL), who would later reach the national championship game. On the other hand, they suffered upset losses against Baylor, Wake Forest, and California. Senior quarterback Kevin Jennings returns for his third year as their starting quarterback. He played through a nagging injury that limited him to just 55 rushing yards last season. He was more dynamic two seasons ago when he rushed for 354 yards — so the hope is that his ankle is now better and the problem is not systemic. As a pure pocket passer last season, Jennings did throw for 3641 yards. But his penchant for turning the ball over continued as he threw 13 interceptions last year. In his biggest two games two years ago against Clemson in the ACC championship game and then Penn State in the college football playoffs, he turned the ball over five times, and two of his three interceptions by the Nittany Lions were returned for touchdowns. He remains too inconsistent. In his 13 starts when he posted a QBR of 76.0 or higher, SMU has won 12 of those games. But in his seven starts when his QBR finished below that threshold, the Mustangs lost four of those games. To Lashlee’s credit, he is relying less and less on the transfer portal each offseason after grabbing 23 players for the 2023 season. He targeted the wide receiver room, the defensive line, and the secondary in bringing in 16 new players in the portal. With three returning starters and feeling good about the recruiting and development of the younger players on the offensive line, Lashlee did not add an offensive lineman in the portal. He did have to replace both coordinators after offensive coordinator Casey Woods left to become the head coach at Missouri State and defensive coordinator Scott Symons took an assistant job with the Dallas Cowboys. Lashlee took an innovative approach by naming three co-coordinators on both sides of the ball. With 31 victories in the last three seasons and barely missing a third straight ACC championship game appearance, SMU has certainly become one of the teams to beat in the ACC and a threat to reach the College Football Playoffs. But maintaining consistency against the teams they are supposed to beat, along with proving they can stay competitive with the truly elite teams in the FBS, remain challenges for this program.
Best of luck — Frank.
To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.
AIR FORCE: The Falcons have just a 9-15 record over the last two seasons after dropping to 4-8 last year. Maintaining year-to-year success for the military academies that do not take players in the transfer portal or offer NIL income. But the last time Air Force had two losing seasons in a row, they responded with an 11-2 campaign in 2019. They had two straight 10-3 seasons before this recent two-year slide under head coach Troy Calhoun in his 20th year running the program. Losing three of their four games decided by one scoring possession last season did not help their cause. The Falcons need to get back to playing great defense. After ranking in the top 30 in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings for four straight years, they fell to 74th in that metric for the 2024-25 season and then 101st last season. Air Force ranked 116th in the FBS by surrendering 423.2 total Yards-Per-Game — but the silver lining is that they held their last four opponents to just 349.0 Yards-Per-Game. Eight starters are back on that side of the ball. Calhoun brought back Steve Russ to be the defensive coordinator after serving in that capacity from 2014 through 2017 before moving on to the NFL, where he coached linebackers for six years. He was the defensive coordinator at UAB last season. Calhoun could have his most explosive offense in years with the return to health of junior quarterback Liam Szarka. In his eight games last year when he played at least 40 snaps, the Falcons scored 31.0 Points-Per-Game. The dual-threat generated at least 200 passing yards and 100 rushing yards in his three career starts. He threw the ball 75 times last season, with 21 of those passes going for at least 20 yards. He also generated 5.4 Yards-Per-Carry and averaged 92.2 rushing YPG with 13 touchdowns with his legs. He will be joined in the backfield by senior fullback Owen Allen, who has rushed for at least 1000 yards in three of the last four years. The offensive line returns two starters along with another two players who logged in at least 250 snaps. This is a big group that averages more than 300 pounds per starter.
ARKANSAS STATE: The Red Wolves did not see their win total improve last season for the first time in four years — but head coach Butch Jones has this program headed in a positive direction. After going 5-19 in his first two seasons at Arkansas State, Jones has overseen a 21-18 record in the last three years here in Jonesboro. The Red Wolves started slow last year by winning just one of their first five games — but they rallied in the second half of the season by winning six of their last eight contests, culminating in a 34-28 victory against Missouri State in the xBox Bowl. Ten starters are back from that team, although there are some critical losses. On offense, wide receiver Corey Rucker was signed as an undrafted free agent by the Las Vegas Raiders after breaking the program’s all-time receiving yards record. Senior quarterback Jaylen Raynor transferred to Iowa State after passing for 8694 yards and accounting for 67 total touchdowns in the last three seasons after taking over under center after four games in the 2023 season. The team will really miss the six game-winning touchdown drives he engineered in the last two seasons. Even with Raynor under center last year, the Red Wolves failed to score more than 21 points six times — and they scored less than 17 points for times. On the bright side, five of the seven players who caught at least 25 balls are back. And the strength of the unit should be an offensive line that returns five of the seven players who had at least four starts last season. Jones was not complacent with the offensive line room either, as he added four players in the transfer portal and another two junior college players. The defense replaces the entire front six — and the transfer of defensive tackle Cody Sigler will sting. The defensive backfield has three starters back, including their top four safeties from last season. Jones brought in 17 players in the transfer portal and four junior college players to help defensive coordinator Griff McCarley in his second season running the defense. While Arkansas State ranked 110th in the nation by giving up 413.3 total Yards-Per-Game, that did represent an improvement of 49 YPG from 2024. Getting similar improvement from this unit is critical — the Red Wolves won four of their five games when holding their opponent to less than 27 points. But the margins remain too thin for this team that only outgained their Sun Belt Conference opponents by +13 net YPG, despite a 5-3 record in conference play. After going 7-0 in games decided by seven points or less two years ago, four of Arkansas State’s seven victories were by six points or less. If the quarterback play drops significantly without Raynor, this team could be in trouble.
SMU: The Mustangs were one of the biggest surprises of the 2024-25 season by going undefeated in the ACC and reaching the College Football Playoff. Fourth-year head coach Rhett Lashlee had pulled off a minor miracle by leading this SMU program to two straight 11-win seasons. But the Mustangs also benefited from a soft non-conference schedule (and their lone regular season loss was against BYU) and a conference campaign that did not include Clemson, Miami (FL), and Syracuse — so I was worried that the team would experience a drop-off last season. SMU finished 9-4 last season after beating Arizona in the Holiday Bowl by a 24-10 score. On the one hand, they beat Miami (FL), who would later reach the national championship game. On the other hand, they suffered upset losses against Baylor, Wake Forest, and California. Senior quarterback Kevin Jennings returns for his third year as their starting quarterback. He played through a nagging injury that limited him to just 55 rushing yards last season. He was more dynamic two seasons ago when he rushed for 354 yards — so the hope is that his ankle is now better and the problem is not systemic. As a pure pocket passer last season, Jennings did throw for 3641 yards. But his penchant for turning the ball over continued as he threw 13 interceptions last year. In his biggest two games two years ago against Clemson in the ACC championship game and then Penn State in the college football playoffs, he turned the ball over five times, and two of his three interceptions by the Nittany Lions were returned for touchdowns. He remains too inconsistent. In his 13 starts when he posted a QBR of 76.0 or higher, SMU has won 12 of those games. But in his seven starts when his QBR finished below that threshold, the Mustangs lost four of those games. To Lashlee’s credit, he is relying less and less on the transfer portal each offseason after grabbing 23 players for the 2023 season. He targeted the wide receiver room, the defensive line, and the secondary in bringing in 16 new players in the portal. With three returning starters and feeling good about the recruiting and development of the younger players on the offensive line, Lashlee did not add an offensive lineman in the portal. He did have to replace both coordinators after offensive coordinator Casey Woods left to become the head coach at Missouri State and defensive coordinator Scott Symons took an assistant job with the Dallas Cowboys. Lashlee took an innovative approach by naming three co-coordinators on both sides of the ball. With 31 victories in the last three seasons and barely missing a third straight ACC championship game appearance, SMU has certainly become one of the teams to beat in the ACC and a threat to reach the College Football Playoffs. But maintaining consistency against the teams they are supposed to beat, along with proving they can stay competitive with the truly elite teams in the FBS, remain challenges for this program.
Best of luck — Frank.
