by Hollywood Sports
Sunday, Nov 30, 2025For the 15th straight summer, I invested time researching each FBS college football team to serve as the foundation for my college football handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic note-taking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from reading and studying multiple sources. Each FBS team now takes about 45 minutes to an hour of preparation time.
To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.
BOWLING GREEN: After a three-year run where the Falcons went only 7-22, head coach Scot Loeffler followed a 7-6 campaign two years ago with another 7-6 season that culminated in a 38-31 loss against Arkansas State in the 68 Ventures Bowl. They also played both Penn State and Texas A&M tough in seven and six-point losses early in the season. Loeffler clearly got himself off the hot seat he had been on for a few seasons — but he threw the program for a loop when he bolted in February to take the quarterback coaching job for the Philadelphia Eagles. The Bowling Green administration responded by hiring Ohio State (and Tennessee Titans) legend Eddie George as their next head coach after four years as the head coach at Tennessee State. The former Heisman Trophy winner could get a headway into recruiting in-state. Last year’s team lost 32 seniors, but Loeffler had already brought in 15 transfer players before George added another 10 to fortify the roster.
GEORGIA SOUTHERN: The Eagles enjoyed their best season in three years under head coach Clay Helton, finishing 8-5 after a 31-26 loss to Sam Houston in the New Orleans Bowl. They finished 6-2 in the Sun Belt Conference, although they did get outgained by -21 Yards-Per-Game against conference foes. Five starters return on each side of the ball. For the first time in his tenure at Georgia Southern, Helton sees his starting quarterback return. Junior J.C.French passed for 2831 yards with 17 touchdown passes, but he needs to cut down on his turnovers after throwing four interceptions in the bowl game. Helton brought in eight players in the transfer portal to help the defense. The Eagles surrendered 428.6 total YPG, ranking 115th in the nation — but their SP+ ranking of 91st in the FBS using the metrics by ESPN’s Bill Connelly was their best mark since 2020. On paper, this is Helton’s best roster since taking over this program.
KENT STATE: It is simply the most difficult situation in the entire FBS. The Golden Flashes went 0-12 last year, getting outscored by -30 Points-Per-Game and getting outgained by -283 Yards-Per-Game. They only generated 233.3 YPG, which resulted in 13.9 PPG. They surrendered 516.0 YPG, which resulted in 44.1 PPG. All four of those marks were the second-worst in the FBS. They averaged -145 fewer YPG than their opponents’ season defensive average. They gave up +156 more YPG than their opponents’ season offensive average. Both those numbers were the worst in the nation. It is hard to recruit here — and any players that develop are likely to enter the transfer portal. The program lacks funding, with the primary purpose seeming to be to take paychecks to fund the other elements of the athletic department. And then to compound matters, third-year head coach Kenni Burns was fired in mid-April due to a loan scandal involving his taking money from a booster. On the bright side, it probably could not have gotten worse than a coaching change in the early days of spring practice. Offensive coordinator Mark Carney was elevated to be the interim head coach. It would seem that only masochists would want to touch this team at betting windows. But playing in the Mid-American Conference, the margins are not overwhelming to begin outperforming point spread expectations. After junior quarterback Devin Kargman entered the transfer portal after spring practice, former Fordham quarterback C.J. Montes changed his mind to leave the program in the portal. The former New Mexico recruit was a finalist for the Walter Payton award in 2023 when he threw for 3000 yards and 26 touchdowns before being slowed by injuries last year. He could give the offense a spark it has not had in years.
MASSACHUSETTS: The Minutemen have not won more than four games since joining the FBS in 2012. After a 2-10 campaign last year, the administration cut ties with head coach Don Brown after three years running the program. Massachusetts continued their defensive focus by hiring Joe Harasymiak as their next head coach after serving as the defensive coordinator at Rutgers for the last three years. He also had a successful run as the head coach at the University of Maine. He leads the Minutemen back to the Mid-American Conference where they went 7-25 from 2012 through 2015 before they went independent. Harasymiak brought in 34 transfers including 12 from Power Four conferences.
OREGON: The Ducks went undefeated in Big Ten play last season and were one of the four teams to earn a bye in the College Football Playoff. But they got trounced by Ohio State by a 41-21 score in the quarterfinals. On the one hand, it is a testament to fourth-year head coach Dan Lanning that his football team’s only losses in the last two seasons were either to the eventual national champion or a team that reached the championship game (two losses to Washington two seasons ago). But on the other hand, his game management in big moments has been questionable in my mind — and, yo, is this dude wound up tight. He has done a great job of assembling an uber-talented roster. He is recruiting as well as anyone in the country — and he has made Oregon a premier landing spot for high-level transfers without losing players of his own. Yet my concern with him is similar to the one I have about Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell. When there are so many good players, the head coach’s job becomes putting the players in the best position to succeed. It’s not the time to start splitting face cards just because the dealer shows a six. Another concern is that maintaining a culture is not automatic. Only six starters are back from last year’s team. Many of the new starters this season are new to the program after transferring in. Chemistry and team cohesion will have to be nurtured because many of these players have not been in this environment. However, that is not the case for redshirt sophomore quarterback Dante Moore, who transferred in from UCLA two years ago and redshirted last year while watching Dillon Gabriel operate. He is a former five-star recruit who had five starts for the Bruins in 2023. But his production was not always steady that year — and there is a reason why he left.
TROY: Expectations were not high for the Trojans after head coach Jon Sumrall bolted for Tulane, and the program got gutted in the transfer portal. After losing seven of their first eight games, first-year head coach Gerad Parker led his team to winning three of their final four games. Unfortunately, quarterback Matthew Caldwell, running back Damien Taylor, and wide receiver Devonte Ross all entered the transfer portal and got poached by Texas, Ole Miss, and Penn State, respectively. Parker is using the transfer portal to help restock the roster, although the focus remains on a patient rebuild of this program that relies on player development. He brought in the top-ranked recruiting class in the Sun Belt Conference. Will “Goose” Crowder was the starting quarterback to begin the season before suffering an elbow season-ending upper body injury in the fourth game. He was completing 69.4% of his passes with five touchdown passes and no interceptions at the time. If he can regain that form this season, the Trojans may return to a bowl game.
UL-LAFAYETTE: After two straight 6-7 campaigns in the first two seasons with Louisiana-Lafayette, head coach Michael Desmormeax led the Ragin’ Cajuns to a 10-1 start before injuries to senior quarterbacks Ben Woolridge and then Chander Fields forced him to turn to his third-string QB in their final two games. They lost those games by a combined 65-6 score after their 35-3 loss to TCU in the New Mexico Bowl. Only seven starters are back from that 10-3 squad, but Desmormeaux did not lean heavily on the transfer portal as he only brought in seven new players from other teams. He is counting on his recruiting and the coaching staff’s player development to fill most of the gaps. That is probably the most sustainable long-term strategy — but Desmormeaux should not count on a +10 net turnover margin once again this season.
Best of luck — Frank.
To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.
BOWLING GREEN: After a three-year run where the Falcons went only 7-22, head coach Scot Loeffler followed a 7-6 campaign two years ago with another 7-6 season that culminated in a 38-31 loss against Arkansas State in the 68 Ventures Bowl. They also played both Penn State and Texas A&M tough in seven and six-point losses early in the season. Loeffler clearly got himself off the hot seat he had been on for a few seasons — but he threw the program for a loop when he bolted in February to take the quarterback coaching job for the Philadelphia Eagles. The Bowling Green administration responded by hiring Ohio State (and Tennessee Titans) legend Eddie George as their next head coach after four years as the head coach at Tennessee State. The former Heisman Trophy winner could get a headway into recruiting in-state. Last year’s team lost 32 seniors, but Loeffler had already brought in 15 transfer players before George added another 10 to fortify the roster.
GEORGIA SOUTHERN: The Eagles enjoyed their best season in three years under head coach Clay Helton, finishing 8-5 after a 31-26 loss to Sam Houston in the New Orleans Bowl. They finished 6-2 in the Sun Belt Conference, although they did get outgained by -21 Yards-Per-Game against conference foes. Five starters return on each side of the ball. For the first time in his tenure at Georgia Southern, Helton sees his starting quarterback return. Junior J.C.French passed for 2831 yards with 17 touchdown passes, but he needs to cut down on his turnovers after throwing four interceptions in the bowl game. Helton brought in eight players in the transfer portal to help the defense. The Eagles surrendered 428.6 total YPG, ranking 115th in the nation — but their SP+ ranking of 91st in the FBS using the metrics by ESPN’s Bill Connelly was their best mark since 2020. On paper, this is Helton’s best roster since taking over this program.
KENT STATE: It is simply the most difficult situation in the entire FBS. The Golden Flashes went 0-12 last year, getting outscored by -30 Points-Per-Game and getting outgained by -283 Yards-Per-Game. They only generated 233.3 YPG, which resulted in 13.9 PPG. They surrendered 516.0 YPG, which resulted in 44.1 PPG. All four of those marks were the second-worst in the FBS. They averaged -145 fewer YPG than their opponents’ season defensive average. They gave up +156 more YPG than their opponents’ season offensive average. Both those numbers were the worst in the nation. It is hard to recruit here — and any players that develop are likely to enter the transfer portal. The program lacks funding, with the primary purpose seeming to be to take paychecks to fund the other elements of the athletic department. And then to compound matters, third-year head coach Kenni Burns was fired in mid-April due to a loan scandal involving his taking money from a booster. On the bright side, it probably could not have gotten worse than a coaching change in the early days of spring practice. Offensive coordinator Mark Carney was elevated to be the interim head coach. It would seem that only masochists would want to touch this team at betting windows. But playing in the Mid-American Conference, the margins are not overwhelming to begin outperforming point spread expectations. After junior quarterback Devin Kargman entered the transfer portal after spring practice, former Fordham quarterback C.J. Montes changed his mind to leave the program in the portal. The former New Mexico recruit was a finalist for the Walter Payton award in 2023 when he threw for 3000 yards and 26 touchdowns before being slowed by injuries last year. He could give the offense a spark it has not had in years.
MASSACHUSETTS: The Minutemen have not won more than four games since joining the FBS in 2012. After a 2-10 campaign last year, the administration cut ties with head coach Don Brown after three years running the program. Massachusetts continued their defensive focus by hiring Joe Harasymiak as their next head coach after serving as the defensive coordinator at Rutgers for the last three years. He also had a successful run as the head coach at the University of Maine. He leads the Minutemen back to the Mid-American Conference where they went 7-25 from 2012 through 2015 before they went independent. Harasymiak brought in 34 transfers including 12 from Power Four conferences.
OREGON: The Ducks went undefeated in Big Ten play last season and were one of the four teams to earn a bye in the College Football Playoff. But they got trounced by Ohio State by a 41-21 score in the quarterfinals. On the one hand, it is a testament to fourth-year head coach Dan Lanning that his football team’s only losses in the last two seasons were either to the eventual national champion or a team that reached the championship game (two losses to Washington two seasons ago). But on the other hand, his game management in big moments has been questionable in my mind — and, yo, is this dude wound up tight. He has done a great job of assembling an uber-talented roster. He is recruiting as well as anyone in the country — and he has made Oregon a premier landing spot for high-level transfers without losing players of his own. Yet my concern with him is similar to the one I have about Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell. When there are so many good players, the head coach’s job becomes putting the players in the best position to succeed. It’s not the time to start splitting face cards just because the dealer shows a six. Another concern is that maintaining a culture is not automatic. Only six starters are back from last year’s team. Many of the new starters this season are new to the program after transferring in. Chemistry and team cohesion will have to be nurtured because many of these players have not been in this environment. However, that is not the case for redshirt sophomore quarterback Dante Moore, who transferred in from UCLA two years ago and redshirted last year while watching Dillon Gabriel operate. He is a former five-star recruit who had five starts for the Bruins in 2023. But his production was not always steady that year — and there is a reason why he left.
TROY: Expectations were not high for the Trojans after head coach Jon Sumrall bolted for Tulane, and the program got gutted in the transfer portal. After losing seven of their first eight games, first-year head coach Gerad Parker led his team to winning three of their final four games. Unfortunately, quarterback Matthew Caldwell, running back Damien Taylor, and wide receiver Devonte Ross all entered the transfer portal and got poached by Texas, Ole Miss, and Penn State, respectively. Parker is using the transfer portal to help restock the roster, although the focus remains on a patient rebuild of this program that relies on player development. He brought in the top-ranked recruiting class in the Sun Belt Conference. Will “Goose” Crowder was the starting quarterback to begin the season before suffering an elbow season-ending upper body injury in the fourth game. He was completing 69.4% of his passes with five touchdown passes and no interceptions at the time. If he can regain that form this season, the Trojans may return to a bowl game.
UL-LAFAYETTE: After two straight 6-7 campaigns in the first two seasons with Louisiana-Lafayette, head coach Michael Desmormeax led the Ragin’ Cajuns to a 10-1 start before injuries to senior quarterbacks Ben Woolridge and then Chander Fields forced him to turn to his third-string QB in their final two games. They lost those games by a combined 65-6 score after their 35-3 loss to TCU in the New Mexico Bowl. Only seven starters are back from that 10-3 squad, but Desmormeaux did not lean heavily on the transfer portal as he only brought in seven new players from other teams. He is counting on his recruiting and the coaching staff’s player development to fill most of the gaps. That is probably the most sustainable long-term strategy — but Desmormeaux should not count on a +10 net turnover margin once again this season.
Best of luck — Frank.
