by Hollywood Sports
Monday, Jul 31, 2023For the 13th straight summer, I invested time researching each FBS college football team to serve as the foundation for my college football handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic notetaking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from the reading and studying of multiple sources. Each FBS team takes about 30 minutes to an hour of preparation time.
To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.
NAVY: How will the team respond to their first different head coach in 15 years after Ken Niumatalolo was fired in the locker room after the Midshipmen’s loss to Army last December? In theory, promoting defensive coordinator Brian Newberry to the position offers stability for this 4-8 team last year. But has the cut block rule change last year taken away one of the secret advantages for this program with their spread triple option attack? Seventeen starters return, but does sophomore Teddy Gleaton offer them a dynamic athletic threat under center? This team has been at its most dangerous when they had a special player at quarterback.
NOTRE DAME: Does the addition of Wake Forest transfer Sam Hartman complement or stall the momentum this team found last season? The sixth-year senior has averaged more than 300 passing YPG for the Demon Deacons over the last two years. But after an 0-3 start, the Fighting Irish found a successful identity in running the football with a power running game behind a great offensive line which played into their talent and helped their defense. They closed the season winning nine of ten. It remains to be seen if the Irish have talent at wideout to accommodate an explosive passing attack.
UTEP: Can relying on 25 junior college transfers provide the foundation for the continued rise of this program under sixth-year head coach Dana Dimel? After being saddled with a 5-27 record in his first three seasons, the Miners have a 12-13 record in the last two seasons under Dimel. With 15 starters back from a group that outgained their Conference USA opponents by +50.2 YPG, a four-year starting quarterback in Gavin Hardison, and perhaps the best offensive line in the conference, there are reasons for optimism. But in the world of the transfer portal, this program is feeding on the junior college ranks to replace the players they are losing in the portal.
JACKSONVILLE STATE: Can the Gamecocks become the next FBS debutant to find immediate success? In going 9-2 last season, only one of their opponents was an FBS opponent. Quarterback Zion Webb was granted a seventh season of eligibility on June 15th — so second-year head coach Rich Rodriguez has an experienced signal caller to run his spread option attack. The defense lost three of their top six tacklers and now faces a full-FBS schedule while playing in Conference USA.
JAMES MADISON: Can the Dukes replace the production of quarterback Todd Centeio who was the Sun Belt Conference Offensive Player of the Year? He led JMU to an 8-3 record and a +172 net YPG mark in conference play. Senior Jordan McCloud transfers in from Arizona (circa South Florida) with two other second-year QBs and Wake Forest freshman transfer Brett Griffis in the mix. The wide receiving corps are relying on at least four transfers after losing four of their top five receivers from last season.
MASSACHUSETTS: How far can head coach Don Brown have his defense carry this team? His zealotry to stay committed to man-to-man pass defense may still cause trouble against Ohio State, but the 68-year-old has overseen some great defenses in his time as the former defensive coordinator for Michigan under Jim Harbaugh and previously at Boston College where he had top-ten statistical defenses. The man pass coverage comes with tons of pressure on the quarterback — the Minutemen ranked fifth in the FBS last season in blitz rate per dropback. UMass returns eight starters and 13 of the 18 defensive players who logged in at least 200 snaps last year from a group that ranked 54th in the nation by allowing 369.6 YPG. The Minutemen will try to control time of possession when they have the ball — and they do a former blue-chipper a quarterback in Taisun Phommochanh who gets a third opportunity after failing to meet expectations at Clemson and then Georgia Tech.
NEW MEXICO STATE: Was the Aggies' 6-1 finish evidence that head coach Jerry Kill was successful in fostering significant progress out of his team in his first year with the program, or were they simply beneficiaries of unusual circumstances at the end of the season? At 5-6, their game with San Jose State gets canceled due to a tragedy on the Spartans team. They get a waiver to add a 12th game against an FCS opponent and have it count towards their potential bowl eligibility — they find Valparaiso and crush them by a 65-3 score. They then beat Bowling Green in their bowl game by a 24-19 score. Senior Diego Pavia won the starting QB job during the season — so his emergence must be considered when assessing this team’s progress. Kill has improved the talent base — but the challenge significantly increases with their move from Independent to Conference USA.
OHIO: How quickly can Kurtis Rourke regain the form that led him to winning the Mid-American Conference Offensive Player of the Year last season? The fifth-year quarterback threw 25 touchdown passes with only four interceptions while posting an adjusted completion percentage of 78% before getting injured near the end of the season and missing the MAC Championship Game and the Arizona Bowl. Tim Albin is building a culture in his image in his third year as the Bobcats’ head coach — but they lost six of the 14 players on defense that played at least 300 snaps. After a dramatic improvement on defense in the second half of the season, their biggest weakness appears to be a defensive line that returns only one starter for their 4-3 look — and they replace both safeties from a unit that ranked 117th in Opponent Pass Success Rate.
SAN DIEGO STATE: Was their 12-2 record in 2021 an aberration — or can head coach Brady Hoke get the Aztecs back to double-digit wins again after his team took a step back last year with a 7-6 mark? The offense remains a problem after falling outside the top 96 teams in the nation for the fifth straight season by generating only 324.9 total YPG (113th in the FBS). Quarterback Jalen Mayden had 10 interceptions and 16 turnover-worthy plays in his eight starts after moving back to the position from linebacker to begin the season. And the Aztecs may not be able to continue to lean heavily on their defense since that unit ranks 115th in the nation by returning only 36% of its production from last year — including the loss of their top three-tacklers (who also led the team in tackles-for-loss) and six of the seven in the front-six of their 3-3-5 defense who logged in at least 400 snaps.
HAWAI'I: Can embracing the traditions of past glory help second-year head coach Timmy Chang elevate the Rainbow Warriors into contenders to reach bowl games once again? The offense showed signs of life when they embraced Run-and-Shoot principles midseason. But has the Run-and-Shoot been exposed as an offensive scheme with structural weaknesses since the days of the early 2000s when Chang was the team’s quarterback for head coach June Jones? Schemes cannot replace talent — and Chang is rebuilding a proud program that hit rock bottom when they could not field a team for the 2021 Hawai’i Bowl in the waning days of the train wreck that was the Todd Graham era. Chang inherited a program that required a massive rebuild undertaking after ranking second-to-last in FBS teams returning production. Chang has stopped the bleeding, but rebuilding the recruiting connections and surviving the transfer portal remain long-term projects.
VANDERBILT: Can teaching and coaching player development overcome the hits the Commodores are absorbing in the transfer portal? Head coach Clark Lea has lost 12 players in the transfer window to fellow Power-5 programs in the last two seasons. But for the first time in five years, this team will have continuity with both their offensive and defensive coordinator from the previous year. Lea has his team playing scrapping with upset victories against Florida and Kentucky last year. Is sophomore A.J. Swann a rising star at quarterback after winning the job four games into the season last year — or were his two interceptions good fortunate that should not mask his 13 turnover-worthy plays in just 198 pass attempts?
SAN JOSE STATE: What will be the bigger problem for the Spartans — their offensive line or their pass rush? Head coach Brent Brennan has a stable quarterback situation with senior Chevan Cordeiro returning after finishing on the second-team All-Mountain West Conference squad. But he was sacked 42 times last year. Four starters — and 86 combined starts — return on their offensive line but this is a group that ranked 113th in the nation in Stuff Rate Allowed last season. The defense was very good after ranking 29th in the nation by allowing only 22.0 PPG — but they lost five of their top six leaders in sacks including MWC Defensive Player of the Year Viliami Fehoka.
USC: Can the Trojans come close to playing championship-level defense? While they allowed 42.5 PPG in their last two games, does the issue go further than simply improving the talent base? Lincoln Riley’s teams have allowed 40 or more points 18 times in his five years as a coach despite being at two blue-blood programs at USC and Oklahoma. His teams give up 43.9 PPG in his career when they lose. Riley added a bunch of transfer players on that side of the ball — but that was the party line last year as well before their opponents gained 423.9 total YPG against them, ranking 105th in the nation. Leading the nation with 29 takeaways often made up for their leaky play — but is that close to being sustainable if the level of execution does not significantly improve?
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL Did head coach Mike MacIntyre play aggressively because that has become his style or did he feel that those tactics were necessary to compensate for a talent deficit on his roster? He inherited only ten starters from a 1-11 squad in his first season with the program. He brought in at least 11 players in the transfer portal — but while the Panthers finished 4-8 overall, they got outgained by -179.8 YPG in Conference USA. FIU will be a difficult team to invest in or against if MacIntrye continues to embrace high-risk/high-reward tactics since they produce a high variance in game-to-game results.
LOUISIANA TECH: Are the Bulldogs improving or simply treading water in the transfer portal? Second-year head coach Sonny Cumbie added almost two dozen new players in the portal to complement 12 returning starters. But Cumbie’s squad finished only 3-9 last season with one of those wins against an FCS program. Five of their losses were by 20 or more points — and the -79 YPG that they got outgained by in Conference USA play was a -33 YPG decline from the team Cumbie inherited.
Best of luck -- Frank.
To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.
NAVY: How will the team respond to their first different head coach in 15 years after Ken Niumatalolo was fired in the locker room after the Midshipmen’s loss to Army last December? In theory, promoting defensive coordinator Brian Newberry to the position offers stability for this 4-8 team last year. But has the cut block rule change last year taken away one of the secret advantages for this program with their spread triple option attack? Seventeen starters return, but does sophomore Teddy Gleaton offer them a dynamic athletic threat under center? This team has been at its most dangerous when they had a special player at quarterback.
NOTRE DAME: Does the addition of Wake Forest transfer Sam Hartman complement or stall the momentum this team found last season? The sixth-year senior has averaged more than 300 passing YPG for the Demon Deacons over the last two years. But after an 0-3 start, the Fighting Irish found a successful identity in running the football with a power running game behind a great offensive line which played into their talent and helped their defense. They closed the season winning nine of ten. It remains to be seen if the Irish have talent at wideout to accommodate an explosive passing attack.
UTEP: Can relying on 25 junior college transfers provide the foundation for the continued rise of this program under sixth-year head coach Dana Dimel? After being saddled with a 5-27 record in his first three seasons, the Miners have a 12-13 record in the last two seasons under Dimel. With 15 starters back from a group that outgained their Conference USA opponents by +50.2 YPG, a four-year starting quarterback in Gavin Hardison, and perhaps the best offensive line in the conference, there are reasons for optimism. But in the world of the transfer portal, this program is feeding on the junior college ranks to replace the players they are losing in the portal.
JACKSONVILLE STATE: Can the Gamecocks become the next FBS debutant to find immediate success? In going 9-2 last season, only one of their opponents was an FBS opponent. Quarterback Zion Webb was granted a seventh season of eligibility on June 15th — so second-year head coach Rich Rodriguez has an experienced signal caller to run his spread option attack. The defense lost three of their top six tacklers and now faces a full-FBS schedule while playing in Conference USA.
JAMES MADISON: Can the Dukes replace the production of quarterback Todd Centeio who was the Sun Belt Conference Offensive Player of the Year? He led JMU to an 8-3 record and a +172 net YPG mark in conference play. Senior Jordan McCloud transfers in from Arizona (circa South Florida) with two other second-year QBs and Wake Forest freshman transfer Brett Griffis in the mix. The wide receiving corps are relying on at least four transfers after losing four of their top five receivers from last season.
MASSACHUSETTS: How far can head coach Don Brown have his defense carry this team? His zealotry to stay committed to man-to-man pass defense may still cause trouble against Ohio State, but the 68-year-old has overseen some great defenses in his time as the former defensive coordinator for Michigan under Jim Harbaugh and previously at Boston College where he had top-ten statistical defenses. The man pass coverage comes with tons of pressure on the quarterback — the Minutemen ranked fifth in the FBS last season in blitz rate per dropback. UMass returns eight starters and 13 of the 18 defensive players who logged in at least 200 snaps last year from a group that ranked 54th in the nation by allowing 369.6 YPG. The Minutemen will try to control time of possession when they have the ball — and they do a former blue-chipper a quarterback in Taisun Phommochanh who gets a third opportunity after failing to meet expectations at Clemson and then Georgia Tech.
NEW MEXICO STATE: Was the Aggies' 6-1 finish evidence that head coach Jerry Kill was successful in fostering significant progress out of his team in his first year with the program, or were they simply beneficiaries of unusual circumstances at the end of the season? At 5-6, their game with San Jose State gets canceled due to a tragedy on the Spartans team. They get a waiver to add a 12th game against an FCS opponent and have it count towards their potential bowl eligibility — they find Valparaiso and crush them by a 65-3 score. They then beat Bowling Green in their bowl game by a 24-19 score. Senior Diego Pavia won the starting QB job during the season — so his emergence must be considered when assessing this team’s progress. Kill has improved the talent base — but the challenge significantly increases with their move from Independent to Conference USA.
OHIO: How quickly can Kurtis Rourke regain the form that led him to winning the Mid-American Conference Offensive Player of the Year last season? The fifth-year quarterback threw 25 touchdown passes with only four interceptions while posting an adjusted completion percentage of 78% before getting injured near the end of the season and missing the MAC Championship Game and the Arizona Bowl. Tim Albin is building a culture in his image in his third year as the Bobcats’ head coach — but they lost six of the 14 players on defense that played at least 300 snaps. After a dramatic improvement on defense in the second half of the season, their biggest weakness appears to be a defensive line that returns only one starter for their 4-3 look — and they replace both safeties from a unit that ranked 117th in Opponent Pass Success Rate.
SAN DIEGO STATE: Was their 12-2 record in 2021 an aberration — or can head coach Brady Hoke get the Aztecs back to double-digit wins again after his team took a step back last year with a 7-6 mark? The offense remains a problem after falling outside the top 96 teams in the nation for the fifth straight season by generating only 324.9 total YPG (113th in the FBS). Quarterback Jalen Mayden had 10 interceptions and 16 turnover-worthy plays in his eight starts after moving back to the position from linebacker to begin the season. And the Aztecs may not be able to continue to lean heavily on their defense since that unit ranks 115th in the nation by returning only 36% of its production from last year — including the loss of their top three-tacklers (who also led the team in tackles-for-loss) and six of the seven in the front-six of their 3-3-5 defense who logged in at least 400 snaps.
HAWAI'I: Can embracing the traditions of past glory help second-year head coach Timmy Chang elevate the Rainbow Warriors into contenders to reach bowl games once again? The offense showed signs of life when they embraced Run-and-Shoot principles midseason. But has the Run-and-Shoot been exposed as an offensive scheme with structural weaknesses since the days of the early 2000s when Chang was the team’s quarterback for head coach June Jones? Schemes cannot replace talent — and Chang is rebuilding a proud program that hit rock bottom when they could not field a team for the 2021 Hawai’i Bowl in the waning days of the train wreck that was the Todd Graham era. Chang inherited a program that required a massive rebuild undertaking after ranking second-to-last in FBS teams returning production. Chang has stopped the bleeding, but rebuilding the recruiting connections and surviving the transfer portal remain long-term projects.
VANDERBILT: Can teaching and coaching player development overcome the hits the Commodores are absorbing in the transfer portal? Head coach Clark Lea has lost 12 players in the transfer window to fellow Power-5 programs in the last two seasons. But for the first time in five years, this team will have continuity with both their offensive and defensive coordinator from the previous year. Lea has his team playing scrapping with upset victories against Florida and Kentucky last year. Is sophomore A.J. Swann a rising star at quarterback after winning the job four games into the season last year — or were his two interceptions good fortunate that should not mask his 13 turnover-worthy plays in just 198 pass attempts?
SAN JOSE STATE: What will be the bigger problem for the Spartans — their offensive line or their pass rush? Head coach Brent Brennan has a stable quarterback situation with senior Chevan Cordeiro returning after finishing on the second-team All-Mountain West Conference squad. But he was sacked 42 times last year. Four starters — and 86 combined starts — return on their offensive line but this is a group that ranked 113th in the nation in Stuff Rate Allowed last season. The defense was very good after ranking 29th in the nation by allowing only 22.0 PPG — but they lost five of their top six leaders in sacks including MWC Defensive Player of the Year Viliami Fehoka.
USC: Can the Trojans come close to playing championship-level defense? While they allowed 42.5 PPG in their last two games, does the issue go further than simply improving the talent base? Lincoln Riley’s teams have allowed 40 or more points 18 times in his five years as a coach despite being at two blue-blood programs at USC and Oklahoma. His teams give up 43.9 PPG in his career when they lose. Riley added a bunch of transfer players on that side of the ball — but that was the party line last year as well before their opponents gained 423.9 total YPG against them, ranking 105th in the nation. Leading the nation with 29 takeaways often made up for their leaky play — but is that close to being sustainable if the level of execution does not significantly improve?
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL Did head coach Mike MacIntyre play aggressively because that has become his style or did he feel that those tactics were necessary to compensate for a talent deficit on his roster? He inherited only ten starters from a 1-11 squad in his first season with the program. He brought in at least 11 players in the transfer portal — but while the Panthers finished 4-8 overall, they got outgained by -179.8 YPG in Conference USA. FIU will be a difficult team to invest in or against if MacIntrye continues to embrace high-risk/high-reward tactics since they produce a high variance in game-to-game results.
LOUISIANA TECH: Are the Bulldogs improving or simply treading water in the transfer portal? Second-year head coach Sonny Cumbie added almost two dozen new players in the portal to complement 12 returning starters. But Cumbie’s squad finished only 3-9 last season with one of those wins against an FCS program. Five of their losses were by 20 or more points — and the -79 YPG that they got outgained by in Conference USA play was a -33 YPG decline from the team Cumbie inherited.
Best of luck -- Frank.
