Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/10/2026

Game Time: 7:10 pm ET, Friday, July 10, 2026

Venue:  LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL

Where to Watch:  MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Guardians -105, Marlins -115; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Guardians -105, Marlins -115; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Guardians -105, Marlins -115; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Cleveland Guardians:  48-46 (2nd place, AL Central)

Miami Marlins:  51-42 (3rd place, NL East)

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Cleveland Guardians:  4-6 last 10

Miami Marlins:  7-3 last 10

The Guardians are entering this series off a win and lost their 3-game series against the Minnesota Twins 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 48-46 record overall and have a road record of 24-24. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Marlins on Friday. Their offense ranks 29th in the MLB with a .677 OPS. Gavin Williams was their starting pitcher on Thursday while Parker Messick is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 7-5 with a 2.80 ERA this season. His team lost their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 1 ER, 0 HR, and 3 BB with 3 SO on 5 hits through 5 IP against the Chicago White Sox.

The Marlins completed the sweep in their 3-game series against the Athletics 3-0. They enter this game with a 51-42 record overall and have a home record of 30-17. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Guardians on Friday with the series finale of their series against the Seattle Mariners still to be played on Thursday. The Marlins won the series opener on Tuesday and the 2nd game on Wednesday. Their offense ranks 6th in the MLB with a .742 OPS. Janson Junk is their starting pitcher on Thursday while Sandy Alcantara is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 10-4 with a 4.00 ERA this season. His team won their last 7 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 earned run, 0 homers, and 1 walk with 8 strikeouts on 6 hits through 8 innings pitched against the Athletics.

The current betting odds have the Marlins listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Marlins have looked really good in their games this season with their 51-42 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL East. They have looked great in their own ballpark too with their 30-17 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Guardians have looked good in their games this season with their 48-46 record overall which has them right near the top of the AL Central. They haven't been a great road team though with their 24-24 road record this year. The Marlins have looked like a different team in their home games this season, but they have also been rolling lately with a ton of momentum, now 7-3 in their last 10 games, and their offense has looked great while the Guardians are 4-6 in their last 10 games and have one of the worst offenses in the league. The Guardians are going with Messick in this one and he has looked great this season. He is 7-5 with a 2.80 ERA and he hasn't been giving up many runs all year, but the team has also had some trouble with him lately. He only gave up 1 earned run in his last start, but the team has lost 3 games in a row now with him starting and the offense hasn't been doing him any favors either. The Marlins are going with Alcantara in this one and he has looked great this season too. He is 10-4 with a 4.00 ERA and the team has been having a ton of success with him lately. They have won 7 games in a row now with him starting and he is coming off another great start in which he gave up 1 earned run. Both starters have been great, but the Marlins have been the hotter team lately with the better offense too, so they have the edge here at home where they have looked so much better this year. The best way to place a bet here is on the Marlins to win this game. 

Guardians Marlins Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, July 10, 2026 (7:10 pm ET start time) is Marlins 3 Guardians 1.

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Cleveland Guardians: 22-16 (+8.1 units) on the moneyline against NL East opponents. 232-197 (+31.4 units) on the moneyline in all games. 109-105 (+20.7 units) on the moneyline in road games. 82-51 UNDER as a road underdog of +100 or higher.

Miami Marlins: 98-111 (-5 units) on the moneyline in home games. 46-49 (-14.2 units) on the moneyline when the money line is -100 to -150. 42-83 (-30.9 units) on the moneyline against left-handed starters. 16-10 UNDER at home when the money line is +125 to -125.

Cleveland Guardians:  T. Herrin (RP) Day To Day - Elbow. A. Martinez (LF) Ten Day IL - Foot. J. Ramirez (3B) Ten Day IL - Hand.

Miami Marlins:  O. Caissie (RF) Day To Day - Calf. A. Bender (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shin. J. Ekness (RP) Sixty Day IL - Calf. A. Nardi (RP) Sixty Day IL - Ribs. J. Junk (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Shin. R. Snelling (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Mazur (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. R. Henriquez (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“You never want to lose, but losing that way really hurts.” - Stephen Vogt after his team’s loss against the Twins in their game on Wednesday.

“We're playing a really good brand of baseball. Again, talking about the pitching and how well guys have performed on that end, but defensively it's cleaner, and getting, again, a lot of contributions tonight. It's nice right now that we're taking some really good at-bats all the way up and down the lineup, and we're pitching at a high rate. When you play this type of baseball, you can go against a lot of really good teams and give yourself a chance to win.” - Clayton McCullough after his team’s win against the Mariners in their game on Wednesday.

Travis Bazzana (L) 2B

Brayan Rocchio (S) SS

Chase DeLauter (L) DH

Kyle Manzardo (L) 1B

Kahlil Watson (L) RF

Gabriel Arias (R) 3B

Daniel Schneemann (L) CF

Patrick Bailey (S) C

Steven Kwan (L) LF

Liam Hicks (L) DH

Otto Lopez (R) SS

Xavier Edwards (S) 2B

Kyle Stowers (L) 1B

Owen Caissie (L) RF

Heriberto Hernández (R) LF

Jakob Marsee (L) CF

Joe Mack (L) C

Javier Sanoja (R) 3B

Batting Average:  Austin Hedges (.288)

Hits:  Brayan Rocchio (82)

Home Runs:  Angel Martínez (11)

RBI:  Chase DeLauter (42)

Stolen Bases:  José Ramírez (24)

Wins:  Gavin Williams (9)

Saves:  Cade Smith (26)

ERA:  Logan Allen (0.00)

Batting Average:  Otto Lopez (.345)

Hits:  Otto Lopez (126)

Home Runs:  Liam Hicks (13)

RBI:  Liam Hicks (56)

Stolen Bases:  Esteury Ruiz (19)

Wins:  Sandy Alcantara (10)

Saves:  Pete Fairbanks (13)

ERA:  William Kempner (0.00)

Managers:

Cleveland Guardians: Stephen Vogt (3rd season)

Miami Marlins: Clayton McCullough (2nd season)