by Chuck Sommers
Wednesday, Apr 13, 2022
Time: 12:35 p.m. ET
Venue: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH
Where to watch: Bally Sports Great Lakes, Bally Sports Ohio
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Reds -125, Guardians +105
BetMGM: Reds -135, Guardians +110
Caesars: Reds -130, Guardians +110
Season record
Guardians: 3-2
Reds: 2-3
What a strong opening weekend for Scott Rickenbach going 3-0-0 with his best MLB picks. Opening weekend definitely showcased some intriguing matchups in this very-early stages of baseball, but we know it's a six-month marathon, not a sprint, for some of these teams. The same applies for baseball betting and not getting too caught up with the sticker shock of it all. Catch Scott's plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.
Guardians - Reds preview and analysis
OK, so I guess it’s official. The Cleveland Guardians are going to start hitting for power and Steven Kwan is going to be the next Ty Cobb or Pete Rose. Good to know, please get your World Series tickets in now with no regrets later.
The Guardians won their third straight game on Tuesday in a 10-5 win against the Cincinnati Reds, and they’ll try to complete the two-game sweep on Wednesday in Cincinnati while keeping this ridiculous offensive performance up.
Cleveland reached double digits in runs for the third straight game primarily thanks to an explosion in the sixth inning that broke a 4-4 tie. Andres Gimenez hit a two-run home run, and Jose Ramirez continued his post-contract tear with a grand slam to finish with six RBI.
But also just as important, Kwan went 1-for-2 and drew two walks as the rookie has failed to go down on strikes this season. He’s reached base at least three times in all five games. Not bad for the 24-year-old.
"He's got his head screwed on tight," Guardians manager Terry Francona said. "I checked some of his interviews, because I wanted to see. We're pretty high on his ability to handle all this. That won't be an issue."
We all know baseball has been around for a very long time and dates back to even before your ancestors of yesteryear were born. Kwan has gone to the plate 15 times and has recorded 10 hits and reached base 18 of 24 appearances. A player hasn’t hit that kind of mark since 1901. I don’t even remember much of what was happening in 1901 but I can tell you baseball wasn’t that complicated.
"As these records don't feel real, I don't think it's going to settle in for a couple weeks," Kwan said. "It's all a culmination of the hard work over the years and it's awesome to help contribute."
It’s also good to see the Guardians on this kind of run after running into some struggles to start the season with a combined one run scored. Since then, they’ve outscored opponents 37-15 with plenty of room to grow. Even Shane Bieber took a no-hitter into the sixth inning and looked as dominant as ever. Despite giving up three runs late, it was still good to see him contribute well.
Meanwhile, the Reds could use some of that contribution from both sides, especially at the plate. They’ve gone on a cold spell, as expected, to begin the season. Joey Votto’s renaissance has certainly cooled off after going 0-for-3 from the plate. The 3-7 hitters each went hitless, with the only offense coming from Jonathan India (1-for-4, 2 RBI) and Tyler Naquin (2-for-3, 2 RBI).
"He's always going to give his team a chance to win," Naquin said of Bieber. "He threw the ball really well."
Naquin hit the tying home run in the sixth to set the crowd of 43,000-plus into a frenzy. If only they had something like that to cheer for consistently. I speak of this ill after a 2-3 start, which of course baseball goes into a frenzy after a short time.
"Whenever you hit a homer it's fun," said Naquin. "It's a game of momentum. We had it for a little bit but fell a little short."
Prediction
If the Guardians put up another double-digit spot, I think baseball analytics peoples’ heads would explode. There’s no way it can happen again, right? It might not to that extent, but I think Cleveland puts up enough runs to get the win in this one and move to 4-2 before finally heading home for the first time. Guardians win 7-3
Betting trends
Guardians are 31-47 (-10.6 net games on ML) as an underdog between +100 and +150 the past three seasons.
Guardians are 22-20 (+6.2 net games on ML) the past three seasons when a road dog between +100 and +150.
Reds are 78-58 the past three years as a favorite of -110 or higher.
Projected lineup
Guardians:
Myles Straw (R) CF
Steven Kwan (L) LF
Jose Ramirez (S) 3B
Franmil Reyes (R) DH
Amed Rosario (R) SS
Owen Miller (R) 1B
Oscar Mercado (R) RF
Andres Gimenez (L) 2B
Austin Hedges (R) C
Myles Straw (R) CF
Steven Kwan (L) LF
Jose Ramirez (S) 3B
Franmil Reyes (R) DH
Amed Rosario (R) SS
Owen Miller (R) 1B
Oscar Mercado (R) RF
Andres Gimenez (L) 2B
Austin Hedges (R) C
Reds:
Jonathan India (R) 2B
Tyler Naquin (L) RF
Tommy Pham (R) LF
Joey Votto (L) 1B
Tyler Stephenson (R) C
Nick Senzel (R) CF
Mike Moustakas (L) 3B
Kyle Farmer (R) SS
Jake Fraley (L) DH
Jonathan India (R) 2B
Tyler Naquin (L) RF
Tommy Pham (R) LF
Joey Votto (L) 1B
Tyler Stephenson (R) C
Nick Senzel (R) CF
Mike Moustakas (L) 3B
Kyle Farmer (R) SS
Jake Fraley (L) DH
Starting pitchers
CLE: Triston McKenzie
CIN: TBD
Statistical leaders
Guardians:
Batting average: Steven Kwan -- .667
Hits: Steven Kwan -- 10
Home runs: Two tied -- 2
RBI: Jose Ramirez -- 11
Wins: Cal Quantrill -- 1
Saves: N/A
ERA: Shane Bieber -- 3.60
Reds:
Batting average: Kyle Farmer -- .375
Hits: Kyle Farmer -- 6
Home runs: Three tied -- 1
RBI: Two tied -- 4
Wins: Two tied -- 1
Saves: Two tied -- 1
ERA: Tyler Mahle -- 1.00
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
