by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Jun 11, 2024
Game Time: 7:10 pm ET, Tuesday, June 11, 2024
Venue: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH
Where to Watch: BSOH
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Guardians -125, Reds +105; Over/Under: 9 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Guardians -125, Reds +105; Over/Under: 9 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Guardians -125, Reds +105; Over/Under: 9 runs
Season Record
Cleveland Guardians: 42-22 (1st place, AL Central)
Cincinnati Reds: 32-34 (2nd place, NL Central)
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Recent Form
Cleveland Guardians: 6-4 last 10
Cincinnati Reds: 8-2 last 10
Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds Preview and Analysis
The Guardians are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Miami Marlins 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 42-22 record overall and have a road record of 21-14. This is the series opener of a 2-game series with the Reds on Tuesday and they have Monday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 10th in the MLB with a .718 OPS. Carlos Carrasco was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Triston McKenzie is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 2-3 with a 4.16 ERA this season. His team won their last 4 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 5 ER, 3 HR, and 2 BB with 7 Ks on 9 hits through 5.1 IP against the Kansas City Royals.
The Reds are entering this series off a loss and won their 4-game series against the Chicago Cubs 3-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 32-34 record overall and have a home record of 17-18. This is the 1st game of a 2-game series with the Guardians on Tuesday and they have Monday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 20th in the MLB with a .682 OPS. Frankie Montas was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Brent Suter is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 0-0 with a 3.86 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 earned runs, 0 homers, and 0 BB with 0 strikeouts on 1 hit through 0.2 innings played against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Guardians vs Reds Prediction
The current betting odds have the Reds listed as a slight underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Reds haven't looked great in their games this season with their 32-34 record overall and their 17-18 home record, but they have looked a lot better in their games lately. They are 8-2 in their last 10 games and they have been on a roll. Meanwhile, the Guardians have looked great in their games this season with their 42-22 record overall which has them leading the AL Central with one of the best records in the entire MLB. They are going to have McKenzie starting in this game, but that could be a problem here. He is 2-3 with a 4.16 ERA this season and he just gave up 5 earned runs in his last start. The Guardians do have a good offense to help him out if he gets into any trouble, but the Reds have also been really hot themselves and they have been putting up a ton of runs in their games. Nothing is set in stone for the Reds as a starter in this game so it could be a bullpen game for them, but they have been pitching a lot better in their last series too. The Guardians have been great all season but they just went on a winning streak of their own and now they are starting to cool off while the Reds are hot and will be looking to stay hot in this series. The best way to place a bet here is on the Reds to win this game.
Guardians Reds Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Tuesday, June 11, 2024 (7:10 pm ET start time) is Reds 5 Guardians 3.
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MLB Betting Trends
Cleveland Guardians: 42-22 (+17.2 units) on the moneyline in all games. 21-14 (+7.9 units) on the moneyline in road games. 23-9 (+11.5 units) on the moneyline when the money line is -100 to -150. 10-4 UNDER on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10. 23-13 UNDER after 3 consecutive games versus an interleague opponent.
Cincinnati Reds: 176-214 (-7.2 units) on the moneyline in all games. 88-109 (-18.2 units) on the moneyline in home games. 80-91 (-12 units) on the moneyline when the money line is +125 to -125. 7-1 UNDER after a 2 game span where the bullpen threw 9 total innings or more. 8-3 UNDER as a home underdog of +100 or higher. 9-5 UNDER after 4 or more consecutive home games.
Key Injuries
Cleveland Guardians: G. Williams (SP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. T. Stephan (RP) out for season - Elbow. E. Morgan (SP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. J. Karinchak (RP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. S. Bieber (SP) out for season - Elbow.
Cincinnati Reds: E. Pagán (RP) Out indefinitely - Upper Body. B. Williamson (RP) Mid June - Shoulder. N. Marte (SS) Elig June 26 - Hamstring.
Notable Quotes
“With a game like today, and we have an off day tomorrow, we had our full bullpen ready to go. Man, they were special today.” - Stephen Vogt after his team’s win against the Marlins in their game on Sunday.
“It was one of those you’re not in sync with your body. The mechanics mess with you. I couldn’t throw the fastball up when I wanted. My arm is healthy. My next bullpen I will figure why. I’ll just flip the page.” - Frankie Montas after their loss against the Cubs in their game on Sunday.
Starting Lineups
Cleveland Guardians
Steven Kwan (L) LF
Tyler Freeman (R) CF
José Ramírez (S) 3B
Josh Naylor (L) 1B
David Fry (R) C
Andrés Giménez (L) 2B
Gabriel Arias (R) DH
Daniel Schneemann (L) RF
Brayan Rocchio (S) SS
Cincinnati Reds
Stuart Fairchild (R) RF
Elly De La Cruz (S) SS
Jeimer Candelario (S) 1B
Spencer Steer (R) DH
Jonathan India (R) 2B
Santiago Espinal (R) 3B
TJ Friedl (L) CF
Luke Maile (R) C
Blake Dunn (R) LF
Statistical Leaders
Cleveland Guardians
Batting Average: Daniel Schneemann (.385)
Hits: José Ramírez (69)
Home Runs: José Ramírez (18)
RBI: José Ramírez (62)
Stolen Bases: José Ramírez (10)
Wins: Logan Allen (6)
Saves: Emmanuel Clase (19)
ERA: Shane Bieber (0.00)
Cincinnati Reds
Batting Average: Jake Fraley (.288)
Hits: Elly De La Cruz (57)
Home Runs: Elly De La Cruz (11)
RBI: Spencer Steer (40)
Stolen Bases: Elly De La Cruz (34)
Wins: Nick Lodolo (6)
Saves: Alexis Díaz (13)
ERA: Alex Young (0.00)
Managers:
Cleveland Guardians: Stephen Vogt (1st season)
Cincinnati Reds: David Bell (6th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
