Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/26/2025

by Rod Pearson

Thursday, Apr 24, 2025
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Saturday, April 26, 2025
Venue:  Kaseya Center, Miami, FL 
Where to Watch:  TNT


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Cavaliers -6.5, Heat +6.5; Over/Under:  213.5 points
Bet365:  Point Spread:  Cavaliers -6, Heat +6; Over/Under:  213.5 points
BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Cavaliers -6.5, Heat +6.5; Over/Under:  213.5 points

Season Record

Cleveland Cavaliers:  64-18 (1st place, Central Division)
Miami Heat:  37-45 (2nd place, Southeast Division)

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Recent Form
Cleveland Cavaliers:  7-3 last 10
Miami Heat:  4-6 last 10


Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat Preview and Analysis


The Cavaliers are entering the playoffs with a 64-18 record overall this season and they were 30-11 in their road games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game winning streak with wins coming against the Miami Heat twice in a row. Donovan Mitchell led the team in points in that game with 30 while Darius Garland was next on the team with 21 points. Darius Garland led the team in assists in that game with 9 while Jarrett Allen led the team in rebounds with 8. They were 47.6% from the field, 48.9% from 3-point range, and 91.3% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 121.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 112.4 PPG against them. The Cavaliers have an ATS record of 49-34-1 this season and their O/U record is 53-31.



The Heat are entering the playoffs with a 37-45 record overall this season and they were 19-22 in their home games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game losing streak with losses coming against the Cleveland Cavaliers twice in a row. Tyler Herro led the team in points in that game with 33 while Davion Mitchell was next on the team with 18 points. Bam Adebayo led the team in assists in that game with 9 while Bam Adebayo led the team in rebounds with 14. They were 51.9% from the field, 35.6% from 3-point range, and 75% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 110.6 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 110 PPG against them. The Heat have an ATS record of 41-44-1 this season and their O/U record is 47-39.


Cavaliers vs Heat Prediction

The current betting odds have the Cavaliers listed as a 6.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 3 of a 7 game series between the 1st seeded Cavaliers and the 8th seeded Heat from the Eastern Conference for the 1st round of the NBA playoffs. The Cavaliers are leading this series 2-0 after winning game 2 at home. The Cavaliers took a 2-0 series lead with a 121-112 win over the Heat in the 2nd game of this series. The Heat looked a lot better in game 2 than they did in game 1, but the Cavaliers have so many options to go to when it comes to scoring points. The Heat were able to stick around in the 1st quarter of game 2, but that game was over by the end of the half when the Cavaliers outscored the Heat by 15 points in the 2nd quarter. That game was never really in doubt for the Cavaliers and the Heat aren't going to be any better on their home court with the talent that the Cavs have. The Heat weren't that good on their home court this year with their 19-22 home record, and they weren't a good team overall with their 37-45 record which had them play in both games of the play-in tournament as the last seed just to get here. The Cavaliers have been one of the best teams in the NBA all season, and they have also been a great road team with their 30-11 road record so they aren't going to skip a beat in this game. The Heat just don't have the talent to keep up in this series and this is a series where the Cavaliers have the potential to sweep the Heat. The best way to place a bet here is on the Cavaliers to cover the spread in this game. 

Cavaliers Heat Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Saturday, April 26, 2025 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Cavaliers 108 Heat 99.
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NBA Betting Trends


Cleveland Cavaliers: 72-45 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% of their attempts or more. 25-18 ATS on the road as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 9-3 ATS after 3 or more consecutive overs. 9-5 UNDER in the first round of the playoffs. 

Miami Heat: 16-23 ATS as a home underdog. 5-9 ATS at home when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%). 27-43 ATS at home versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% of their attempts or more. 29-19 UNDER after playing 3 consecutive road games.

Key Injuries


Cleveland Cavaliers:  None.

Miami Heat:  T. Rozier (PG) Day To Day - Ankle. K. Love (PF) Day To Day - Personal. D. Smith (PG) Out For Season - Achilles.


Notable Quotes


“I’m proud of the guys for holding our composure. It helps when you have Donovan Mitchell. It was one of those superstar takes over games.” - Kenny Atkinson after his team’s win against the Heat in game 2 of this series on Wednesday.


“We lost the game. I don’t think there are any moral victories, to be honest. We can’t have lapses where we’re not fully engaged. We’ve got to get that cleaned up or we’ll be down 3-0.” - Tyler Herro after their loss against the Cavaliers in game 2 of this series on Wednesday.


Starting Lineups


Cleveland Cavaliers
PG Darius Garland
SG Donovan Mitchell
SF Max Strus
PF Evan Mobley
C Jarrett Allen

Miami Heat
PG Tyler Herro 
SG Davion Mitchell
SF Andrew Wiggins
PF Bam Adebayo
C Kel'el Ware

Statistical Leaders


Cleveland Cavaliers
PPG: D. Mitchell (24)
APG: D. Garland (6.7)
Reb/G: J. Allen (9.7)

Miami Heat
PPG: T. Herro (23.9)
APG: T. Herro (5.5)
Reb/G: B. Adebayo (9.6)

Coaches:
Cleveland Cavaliers: Kenny Atkinson (1st season)
Miami Heat: Erik Spoelstra (17th season)



Rod Pearson

About the Author:

Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life.  He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years.  In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective.  Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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